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That was my first hypothesis, based on the fact that Smarkets was part of a group of UK startups that went to NYC to promote themselves to the American market. However, it should be said with force that no other known fact does support this hypothesis, so only God knows. Smarkets CEO Jason Trost is a US citizen, who would have much to lose crossing the Department Of Justice’s hair. But why did they pay for this NYC trip, then?

File that in “Odd And Intriguing Fact Of The Day”.

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For aspiring practitioners and those intrigued by the applications of collective intelligence in the workplace, the typical prediction markets conference can be frustrating for lack of focus on practical knowledge and hands-on experience with the tools. That’s why NewsFutures is organizing a Wisdom of Crowds Consulting Workshop, in New York City, on October 27.

It is designed primarily for business consultants who would like to acquire working knowledge of “WOC”-based solutions, or for the manager looking for some hands-on experience while considering the potential of this approach for his or her company.

The one-day program will cover:

• Foundations
  Prediction Markets and Wisdom of Crowds 101: principles, mechanisms, evidence, and applications
• Applications
  Case studies in strategy, forecasting, innovation, and project management
• Tools
  Hands-on experience with various wisdom-of-crowds software tools: Prediction Markets, Competitive Forecasting, Idea Pageant, and Impact Matrix
• Practice
  Keys to a successful implementation: information, integration, inclusion, interface, and incentives
• Collaboration
  Nuts and bolts of working with NewsFutures

If you are interested, please follow this link for more information about the venue and how to register.

I look forward to seeing you in NY, home of the world’s financial meltdown!

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O’Reilly’s Money:Tech 2009 – (one session about prediction markets) – New York City, New York, U.S.A. – 2009-02-04~06

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Last year, Robin Hanson was invited as a speaker… but declined. Instead, our Master Of All Universes went to another conference, scheduled at the same time —stuff about how to get to converse with extra-terrestrials.

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CFM: Scholars

Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.)

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• Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Bernd H. Ankenbrand – Bernd Ankenbrand – (Lecturer, Witten/Herdecke University, Germany, E.U.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• James Annan – (Global Environment Modelling Research Program, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan)
• Werner Antweiler – (UBC Election Stock Market, Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada)
• Kenneth J. Arrow – Kenneth Arrow – (Economics Department, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.)
• Tom W. Bell – Tom Bell – (Law School, Chapman University, California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Joyce E. Berg – Joyce Berg – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Accounting, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Richard Borghesi – (Finance, Texas State University at San Marcos, Texas, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Kay-Yut Chen – (Information Services & Process Innovation Lab, HP Labs, HP, California, U.S.A.)
• Yiling Chen – (Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Yahoo! Research Labs, New York, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Eric Crampton – (Department of Economics, University of Canterbury, New Zealand) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Ely Dahan – (Marketing, Anderson School, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, U.S.A.)
• Anita Elberse – (Marketing, Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Massachusetts, U.S.A.)
• Leslie R. Fine – Leslie Fine – (Information Dynamics Lab, HP Labs, California, U.S.A.)
• Gary William Flake – Gary W. Flake – Gary Flake – (MicroSoft, U.S.A.)
• Robert Forsythe – (Dean, College of Business Administration, University of South Florida, Florida, U.S.A.) — Previously: (Economics, Iowa Electronic Markets, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Lance Fortnow – Lance J. Fortnow – (Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, McCormick School of Engineering, Northwestern University, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Keith Jacks Gamble – Keith Gamble – (Economics (University of California at Berkeley) – California, U.S.A. — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Michael Gorham – (IIT Center for Financial Markets, Stuart School of Business, Illinois Institute of Technology, Illinois, U.S.A.) — Previously: (CFTC)
• Thomas S. Gruca – Thomas Gruca – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Marketing, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Refet Gurkaynak – (Department of Economics, Bilkent University, Turkey)
• Friedrich August Von Hayek — R.I.P. — The market as an information aggregation tool: The Use of Knowledge in Society —
• Robert W. Hahn – Robert Hahn – (Executive Director, Reg-Markets Center, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• James D. Hamilton – James Hamilton – (Department of Economics, University of California at San Diego – California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Robin Hanson – Robin D. Hanson – (Economics, James M. Buchanan Center, George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• M. Todd Henderson – (Law School, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Chris Hibbert – (Software Architect, Zocalo Project Manager, California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Charles Holt – Charles A. Holt – (Department of Economics, University of Virginia, Virginia, U.S.A.)
• Bernardo A. Huberman – Bernardo Huberman – (Social Computing Lab, HP Labs, California, U.S.A.)
• Frédéric Koessler – (Economics, Centre Nationale de la Recherche Scientifique, France, E.U.)
• Anthony M. Kwasnica – Anthony Kwasnica – (Business Economics, Department of Insurance and Real Estate, Smeal College of Business Administration, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)
• Nicolas Lambert – (Department of Computer Science, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.)
• John O. Ledyard – John Ledyard – (Economics and and Social Sciences, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, California, U.S.A.)
• Andrew Leigh – (Economics, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Australia)
• Steven Levitt – Steve Levitt – Steven D. Levitt – (Economics, Director of the Becker Center on Chicago Price Theory, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Saul Levmore – (Law School, University of Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Robert E. Litan – Robert Litan – (Vice President for Research and Policy, Kauffman Foundation, Kansas City, Missouri, U.S.A.)
• Thomas W. Malone – Thomas Malone – Tom Malone – (MIT Center for Collective Intelligence, Management, MIT Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Massachusetts, U.S.A.)
• Charles F. Manski – Charles Manski – (College of Arts and Sciences, Norwestern University, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Adam Meirowitz – (Department of Politics, Princeton University, New Jersey, U.S.A.)
• Paul Milgrom – (Department of Economics, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.)
• Tracy Mullen – (Information Sciences and Technology, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)
• Forrest Nelson – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Economics, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• George R. Neumann – George Neumann – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Economics, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Ryan Oprea – Profile – (Director of the LEEPS laboratory, Economics, University of California at Santa Cruz, California, U.S.A.)
• Gerhard Ortner – (University of Applied Sciences, Austria, E.U.)
• Marco Ottaviani – (Management and Strategy, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Illinois, U.S.A.) – Formerly: (Economics Department, London Business School, United Kingdom, E.U.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• David Paton – (Industrial Economics, Business School, Nottingham University, United Kingdom, E.U.)
• David M. Pennock – David Pennock – (Principal Research Scientist, Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Yahoo! Research Labs, New York, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Charles R. Plott – Charles Plott – (Economics and and Social Sciences, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, California, U.S.A.)
• David Porter – (Economics and Finance, Chapman University, California, U.S.A.)
• Todd Proebsting – Todd A. Proebsting – (Microsoft & University of Arizona, U.S.A.)
• Russ Ray – (Finance, College of Business, University of Louisville, Kentucky, U.S.A.)
• Daniel Reeves – (Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Yahoo! Research Labs, New York, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Paul W. Rhode – Paul Rhode – (US Economic History, College of Management, The University of Arizona, Arizona, U.S.A.) – Formerly: (University of North Carolina, North Carolina, U.S.A.)
• Thomas A. Rietz – Thomas Rietz – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Finance, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Richard Roll – (University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, U.S.A.)
• Thomas W. Ross – Thomas Ross – (UBC Election Stock Market, Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada)
• Rahul Sami – (School of Information, University of Michigan, Michigan, U.S.A.)
• Sam L. Savage – Sam Savage – (Consulting Professor, Stanford U., California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Thomas C. Schelling – Thomas Schelling – (Economics, School of Public Affair, University of Maryland, Maryland, U.S.A.)
• Emile Servan-Schreiber – (NewsFutures, New York City, New York, U.S.A. & Paris, France, E.U.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Robert J. Shiller – Robert Shiller – Profile – (Economics, Yale University, Connecticut, U.S.A.)
• Bernd Skiera – (Electronic Commerce, Goethe University, Germany, E.U.)
• Vernon L. Smith – Vernon Smith – (Economics, Economic Science Institute, Chapman University, California, U.S.A.)
• Erik Snowberg – (Stanford University, California, U.S.A.) — Soon at CalTech
• Peter Norman Sorensen – (Finance, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark, E.U.)
• Martin Spann – (Marketing and Innovation, University of Passau, Germany, E.U.)
• Koleman Strumpf – Koleman S. Strumpf – (Economics, School of Business, University of Kansas, Kansas, U.S.A.) – Formerly: University of North Carolina, North Carolina, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Cass Sunstein – Cass R. Sunstein – (Law School, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• James Surowiecki – (The Wisdom Of Crowds) – (New York, U.S.A.)
• Paul C. Tetlock – Paul Tetlock – (Finance, Business School, University of Texas at Austin, Texas, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Philip Tetlock – Philip E. Tetlock – (Leadership, University of California at Berkeley, California, U.S.A.)
• Hal R. Varian – Hal Varian – (Chief Economist, Google, California, U.S.A.) — Formerly: (Haas School of Business, Department of Economics, University of California at Berkeley, California, U.S.A.)
• Dorina Tila – (Economics, George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.)
• Leighton Vaughan-Williams – (Economics and Finance, Business School, Nottingham Trent University, United Kingdom, E.U.)
• Michael Wellman – Michael P. Wellman – (Computer Science and Engineering, University of Michigan, Michigan, U.S.A.)
• Justin Wolfers – Justin J. Wolfers – (Business and Public Policy, Wharton Business School, University of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Eric Zitzewitz – Eric W. Zitzewitz – (Economics, Dartmouth College, Massachusetts, USA) – Formerly: (Stanford University, California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

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The 60 OTB offices (aimed at US horse racing bettors) rake in $1 billion a year.

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YooNew is an online exchange based in New York City where fans may buy and sell “ticket derivatives”. The ticket derivatives are rights to tickets conditional on certain teams playing in certain playoff matches. So if you were to buy a New England Patriots Superbowl 42 “Fantasy Seat” for $1500, knowing that tickets to the game will likely go for around $3000, you are essentially betting that the Patriots have at least a 50% chance of making it to the game.

It seems like we have consideration, prize and chance here – involving sports no less. What about fantasy sports? Could YooNew be considered a type of fantasy sports league and thus exempted under UIGEA? Here is the relevant exemption from the law:

(ix) participation in any fantasy or simulation sports game or educational game or contest in which (if the game or contest involves a team or teams) no fantasy or simulation sports team is based on the current membership of an actual team that is a member of an amateur or professional sports organization (as those terms are defined in section 3701 of title 28) and that meets the following conditions:

(I) All prizes and awards offered to winning participants are established and made known to the participants in advance of the game or contest and their value is not determined by the number of
participants or the amount of any fees paid by those participants.
(II) All winning outcomes reflect the relative knowledge and skill of the participants and are determined predominantly by accumulated statistical
results of the performance of individuals (athletes in the case of sports events) in multiple real-world
sporting or other events.
(III) No winning outcome is based–

(aa) on the score, point-spread, or any performance or performances of any single real-world team or any combination of such teams; or
(bb) solely on any single performance of an individual athlete in any single real-world sporting or other event.

It seems that YooNew is not a sports fantasy game so defined, because the winning outcomes are based on the fortunes of real-world teams.

On a more positive note, the above language is pretty broad, especially the part about accumulated results. This is reasonable because when results are accumulated chance is less of a factor, both for the performing individual and the predictors.

Wouldn’t someone’s political nomination be determined by their “accumulated statistical results” in primaries (“other events”)? If you argue that the nomination is a single event that takes place one night, what if you closed the market the day before? How about inauguration futures instead of election futures? That is, even if an election is considered a single event, to get to the inauguration an individual must have accumulated results in multiple events.

As you can see, the fantasy sports and “educational game” exemption invites a lot of hair-splitting. How would “team” be defined for non-sports questions? If the “prize” for a given bet is 1000 $10 contracts, was that value determined by the number of participants? Would it make a difference if the prize was given by a central party or by many counterparties on an exchange?

I don’t expect these ideas to make any difference, as they are only ideas, and given how aggressive the DOJ has been in the past, people should be well-warned about being cavalier with “legal hacks”.

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Consensus Point’s conference on prediction markets – @ New York City, New York, U.S.A. – 2007-09-24

8:30     Registration Desk Opens

9:00 – 10:00     Morning Keynote

10:00 – 12:00     Prediction Market Applications – Real-world examples of how prediction markets are being utilized to:

* Conduct Market Research
* Forecast Financial Metrics
* Predict Demand
* Mitigate Risk
* Manage Projects
* Generate Ideas
* Allocate Resources
* Improve Decision Making and Strategic Planning

12:00 – 1:00     Lunch – Provided by the Tribeca Grand

1:00 – 3:00     Prediction Market Best Practices – Focusing on the fundamentally important questions relating to the design and operation of successful prediction market applications:

* How should the scope of the market be defined? – What types of questions can a prediction market help answer?
* How can an incentive program be structured to produce broad, diverse, and sustained participation?
* How can the application be architected to achieve longevity as a management tool?
* What are some effective ways to measure and analyze the market data?
* What are the key items to consider when deploying a prediction market?

3:00 – 4:00     Afternoon Keynote

4:00 – 5:00     Panel Discussion/Q&A Session

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I’ve been thinking a bit about the different upcoming conferences on prediction markets, and it seems to me that the Koleman Strumpf conference stands out of the pack, because of its format. It casts, in a series of 4 successive panels, one company manager against one scholar (called here “discussant”). That is a great idea. That is the perfect mix of management skills and academic knowledge.

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Consensus Point’s conference on prediction markets – @ New York City, New York, U.S.A. – 2007-09-24

What Have We Learned from Market Design? – @ Yahoo! Research Silicon Valley, Santa Clara, California, U.S.A. – 2007-10-15

Koleman Strumpf’s conference on prediction markets – @ Kansas City, Kansas, U.S.A. – 2007-11-01

Money Tech conference = Technology and Money, Asset Management and Networks, Computing Horsepower and Trading + Prediction Markets – @ New York City, New York, U.S.A. – 2008-02-06~07

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Previous: The Second Workshop on Prediction Markets – by Yiling Chen

Midas Oracle = About + Archives + Authors + Best + Contact + Information Technology + Links + Probabilistic Predictions + Post-Mortem Predictions + Prediction Exchanges + Prediction Software + Publish Your Post + How To Publish

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Consensus Point’s conference on prediction markets – @ New York City, New York, U.S.A. – 2007-09-24

What Have We Learned from Market Design? – @ Yahoo! Research Silicon Valley, Santa Clara, California, U.S.A. – 2007-10-15

Koleman Strumpf’s conference on prediction markets – @ Kansas City, Kansas, U.S.A. – 2007-11-01

Money Tech conference = Technology and Money, Asset Management and Networks, Computing Horsepower and Trading + Prediction Markets – @ New York City, New York, U.S.A. – 2008-02-06~07

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