UPDATE: Prof I. Nelson Rose says it’s all political. Christie wants to run for US president, and he does not want to be seen as a pro-gambling candidate.

[ UPDATE: Nate Silver's prediction post-mortem on the 2009 US elections.]

You can see that days before Elections 2009, InTrade was too heavy on Corzine:

Top-10 reasons why NewsFutures is the ideal partner to harness the wisdom of your crowd

1.) Integrated Solutions

We offer complete solutions, not just great software. This approach delivers a much higher success rate and enables the client organization to fully consider Prediction Markets as a key decision-support tool.

From experience, we know that a successful prediction market project requires a lot more than great software or a cool website. Above all:

- Featuring strategic and well-defined questions;
- Securing a high participation rate;
- Integrating the market into the management and decision-making processes.
- Our project management checklist covers 30+ task components of market design, market implementation, and market administration. To ensure success, NewsFutures offers hands-on management and best-practice advice at every stage, in close contact with the client-side team. And if the client is willing to handle some of those tasks itself, we make sure to transfer the relevant knowledge and skills.

2.) A suite of powerful tools

Our platform offers a full suite of knowledge aggregation tools that are optimized for various forecasting needs and business contexts: prediction markets, and more, much more.

As an early pioneer in the field of enterprise prediction markets, NewsFutures has been among the first to recognize not only the power of this tool, but also its various practical limits in certain situations. We are experienced enough to recognize when other knowledge aggregation mechanisms may offer more practical or productive solutions.

That’s why, in close collaboration with some of our clients (in particular InterContinental Hotels, Eli Lilly, Arcelor Mittal, and Pfizer), we have developed a suite of innovative software tools that enable us to optimally aggregate predictions in a variety of business contexts. All of these tools are currently fielded with various clients.

Our software platform currently includes:

Prediction Markets. A continuous double auction trading engine (with optional market maker) is particularly appropriate for measuring risks and opportunities as event probabilities. It can also be used to forecast continuous variables.

Competitive Forecasting. Designed for collective forecasting of specific business variables, such as quarterly sales, especially under several conditional scenarios, or with a small pool of participants.

Idea Pageant. Ideal for rapid harvesting and filtering of a large number of new ideas that require evaluation and prioritization.

Impact Matrix. Used to collect and gauge the likelihood and business impact of various events in the very long term.

This versatile set of tools enables us to propose and implement the most effective solution in every case.

3.) World-Class Expertise

NewsFutures has the longest record of implementing enterprise prediction markets, the most extensive enterprise client list, and the widest geographical reach.

Our team has been immersed in every aspect of delivering successful enterprise prediction markets since 2002. We have implemented internal markets and external markets of all shapes, durations and sizes, around the world: U.S.A., Brasil, France, U.K., Germany, Holland, Japan, Hong Kong, and as far as New Zealand. We have built the longest-running continuous client relationship in the industry (servicing Eli Lilly since 2003).

Our methodology and technological solutions have been shaped by this rich history of confrontation with reality. We know that implementing a successful enterprise prediction market requires clear goals, significant resources, constant care and monitoring, and we know what it takes to deliver success. No other team is more seasoned.

«NewsFutures has done some of the most innovative work in the area for longer than most. They were in there making it happen for real while others were clueless on the fringes.»
- Ajit Kambil – Gobal Director, Deloitte Research

Notably, we have also built our eponymous public prediction exchange into one of the best known play-money exchanges. The experience of running this market non-stop since the year 2000 gave us deep insights into what it takes to successfully manage a market for the long run.

4.) Creative leadership

NewsFutures is a thought leader and a creative driving force within the industry.

NewsFutures started implementing prediction markets in 2000, years before the buzz words “wisdom of crowds” and “web 2.0″ even surfaced in the brains of James Surowiecki and Tim O’Reilly – and we’ve been at the forefront of innovation ever since: Over the years, we’ve fielded several innovative tools for harvesting the wisdom of crowds in various enterprise contexts, and we even applied for a pending patent on a multi-outcome continuous double auction (CDA) trading engine.

In 2003, NewsFutures led the first field study comparing real-money and play-money markets, publishing the results in a landmark article co-authored with some of the field’s leading academic researchers: Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? – Electronic Markets, 14 (3), September 2004. This research significantly enhanced the credibility of play-money markets and, as a result, boosted their adoption within enterprise contexts.

In 2007, NewsFutures started experimenting with an innovative business model for real-money public prediction markets: Bet2Give.

NewsFutures work has been covered on television by CBS News (here) and CNBC (here), and in print by prestigious publications in the United States and Europe, including James Surowiecki’s international best-seller The Wisdom of Crowds.

Our CEO, Emile Servan-Schreiber, has lectured on the topic all over the world, including at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and at the Wharton Business School.
In recognition of NewsFutures’ practical and throught leadership, Emile was chosen to chair the new Prediction Market Industry Association. He is also an associate editor of the Journal of Prediction Markets.

5.) Customized solutions

Our software platform is customization-friendly, enabling us to tailor our solutions to a client’s special needs.

When dealing with high-end demanding customers, one size cannot fit all. The NewsFutures philosophy is to tailor a market solution to the problem at hand, rather than force-fit the problem to a pre-existing market template. That usually means, in addition to choosing the most appropriate tool and market design, customizing the user interface to optimize the integration with the client’s IT infrastructure and the navigation among various markets.

It also means being responsive to customer requests for additional features that extend the platform’s capabilities, and sometimes even developing completely new tools. (Indeed, this is how we came to develop and integrate into the platform a whole suite of original tools in addition to prediction markets.)

In contrast to the one-size-fits-all market and navigation templates provided by others, the NewsFutures software platform offers the flexibility needed to address the unique needs of demanding customers.

6.) Industrial-strength software

NewsFutures software satisfies the highest professional standards and demanding environments.

Internet giant Yahoo!, who knows a thing or two about quality software, chose to acquire the source code of our prediction market engine to power its own Yahoo! Tech Buzz Game.

Our platform is so reliable that it has been used to operate high-stakes real-money political markets for Holland’s leading daily de Volkskrant (see this report), and we currently use it to operate our own real-money prediction exchange Bet2Give.

7.) Military-grade security and confidentiality

We offer a range of access, backup, encryption, integration and hosting options that satisfies the most demanding customers.

NewsFutures has been vetted by customers who put a premium on data security and confidentiality, such as the U.S. Military, pharmaceutical clients, and others in the super-competitive IT industry.

While most clients are satisfied to host their applications on our servers, located in a high-security facility, others have had us ship fully configured hardware that they can install behind their own firewall, or had us install the prediction market application directly on one of their own servers within their existing IT infrastructure.

8.) Multilingual applications

In a global world, English is not enough.

Our software platform is designed to operate in multi-language mode, with a user interface that can offer several languages simultaneously. English, French, Dutch and German versions are already implemented. Other languages can easily be added on request. This feature is important for multinational companies that want to tap the collective intelligence of a linguistically diverse population.

9.) Round-the-clock support

Present on two continents, NewsFutures offers rapid response across many time-zones.

The NewsFutures enterprise team operates the world over from New Jersey, USA, and Paris, France. This enables rapid response in many different time zones and continuous availability from 08:00 to 01:00 GMT. We are currently servicing clients in the United States (from coast to coast), France, Holland, and as far as New Zealand. Our multi-cultural team is well suited to operate in a global world while being attuned to the importance of local differences.

10.) Team players

Although NewsFutures is equiped to deliver integrated solutions, we also have significant experience in partnering with consultancies to service their clients.

We find such partnerships rewarding and productive, and we are very comfortable with them, especially because they help implant the solutions deeper into the host organization. Over the years, we have teamed up with consultancies large and small. Among the largest are SAIC (on a U.S. Military project), Accenture (on a MIT Technology Review project), and the RAND Corporation (on a Texas DOT project).

If you are a consultancy and you would like to deliver wisdom of crowds solutions to your clients, please contact us for details of our partnership program.

Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.)

-

• Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Bernd H. Ankenbrand – Bernd Ankenbrand – (Lecturer, Witten/Herdecke University, Germany, E.U.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• James Annan – (Global Environment Modelling Research Program, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan)
• Werner Antweiler – (UBC Election Stock Market, Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada)
• Kenneth J. Arrow – Kenneth Arrow – (Economics Department, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.)
• Tom W. Bell – Tom Bell – (Law School, Chapman University, California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Joyce E. Berg – Joyce Berg – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Accounting, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Richard Borghesi – (Finance, Texas State University at San Marcos, Texas, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Kay-Yut Chen – (Information Services & Process Innovation Lab, HP Labs, HP, California, U.S.A.)
• Yiling Chen – (Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Yahoo! Research Labs, New York, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Eric Crampton – (Department of Economics, University of Canterbury, New Zealand) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Ely Dahan – (Marketing, Anderson School, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, U.S.A.)
• Anita Elberse – (Marketing, Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Massachusetts, U.S.A.)
• Leslie R. Fine – Leslie Fine – (Information Dynamics Lab, HP Labs, California, U.S.A.)
• Gary William Flake – Gary W. Flake – Gary Flake – (MicroSoft, U.S.A.)
• Robert Forsythe – (Dean, College of Business Administration, University of South Florida, Florida, U.S.A.) — Previously: (Economics, Iowa Electronic Markets, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Lance Fortnow – Lance J. Fortnow – (Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, McCormick School of Engineering, Northwestern University, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Keith Jacks Gamble – Keith Gamble – (Economics (University of California at Berkeley) – California, U.S.A. — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Michael Gorham – (IIT Center for Financial Markets, Stuart School of Business, Illinois Institute of Technology, Illinois, U.S.A.) — Previously: (CFTC)
• Thomas S. Gruca – Thomas Gruca – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Marketing, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Refet Gurkaynak – (Department of Economics, Bilkent University, Turkey)
• Friedrich August Von Hayek — R.I.P. — The market as an information aggregation tool: The Use of Knowledge in Society —
• Robert W. Hahn – Robert Hahn – (Executive Director, Reg-Markets Center, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• James D. Hamilton – James Hamilton – (Department of Economics, University of California at San Diego – California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Robin Hanson – Robin D. Hanson – (Economics, James M. Buchanan Center, George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• M. Todd Henderson – (Law School, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Chris Hibbert – (Software Architect, Zocalo Project Manager, California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Charles Holt – Charles A. Holt – (Department of Economics, University of Virginia, Virginia, U.S.A.)
• Bernardo A. Huberman – Bernardo Huberman – (Social Computing Lab, HP Labs, California, U.S.A.)
• Frédéric Koessler – (Economics, Centre Nationale de la Recherche Scientifique, France, E.U.)
• Anthony M. Kwasnica – Anthony Kwasnica – (Business Economics, Department of Insurance and Real Estate, Smeal College of Business Administration, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)
• Nicolas Lambert – (Department of Computer Science, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.)
• John O. Ledyard – John Ledyard – (Economics and and Social Sciences, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, California, U.S.A.)
• Andrew Leigh – (Economics, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Australia)
• Steven Levitt – Steve Levitt – Steven D. Levitt – (Economics, Director of the Becker Center on Chicago Price Theory, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Saul Levmore – (Law School, University of Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Robert E. Litan – Robert Litan – (Vice President for Research and Policy, Kauffman Foundation, Kansas City, Missouri, U.S.A.)
• Thomas W. Malone – Thomas Malone – Tom Malone – (MIT Center for Collective Intelligence, Management, MIT Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Massachusetts, U.S.A.)
• Charles F. Manski – Charles Manski – (College of Arts and Sciences, Norwestern University, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Adam Meirowitz – (Department of Politics, Princeton University, New Jersey, U.S.A.)
• Paul Milgrom – (Department of Economics, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.)
• Tracy Mullen – (Information Sciences and Technology, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)
• Forrest Nelson – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Economics, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• George R. Neumann – George Neumann – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Economics, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Ryan Oprea – Profile – (Director of the LEEPS laboratory, Economics, University of California at Santa Cruz, California, U.S.A.)
• Gerhard Ortner – (University of Applied Sciences, Austria, E.U.)
• Marco Ottaviani – (Management and Strategy, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Illinois, U.S.A.) – Formerly: (Economics Department, London Business School, United Kingdom, E.U.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• David Paton – (Industrial Economics, Business School, Nottingham University, United Kingdom, E.U.)
• David M. Pennock – David Pennock – (Principal Research Scientist, Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Yahoo! Research Labs, New York, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Charles R. Plott – Charles Plott – (Economics and and Social Sciences, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, California, U.S.A.)
• David Porter – (Economics and Finance, Chapman University, California, U.S.A.)
• Todd Proebsting – Todd A. Proebsting – (Microsoft & University of Arizona, U.S.A.)
• Russ Ray – (Finance, College of Business, University of Louisville, Kentucky, U.S.A.)
• Daniel Reeves – (Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Yahoo! Research Labs, New York, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Paul W. Rhode – Paul Rhode – (US Economic History, College of Management, The University of Arizona, Arizona, U.S.A.) – Formerly: (University of North Carolina, North Carolina, U.S.A.)
• Thomas A. Rietz – Thomas Rietz – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Finance, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Richard Roll – (University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, U.S.A.)
• Thomas W. Ross – Thomas Ross – (UBC Election Stock Market, Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada)
• Rahul Sami – (School of Information, University of Michigan, Michigan, U.S.A.)
• Sam L. Savage – Sam Savage – (Consulting Professor, Stanford U., California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Thomas C. Schelling – Thomas Schelling – (Economics, School of Public Affair, University of Maryland, Maryland, U.S.A.)
• Emile Servan-Schreiber – (NewsFutures, New York City, New York, U.S.A. & Paris, France, E.U.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Robert J. Shiller – Robert Shiller – Profile – (Economics, Yale University, Connecticut, U.S.A.)
• Bernd Skiera – (Electronic Commerce, Goethe University, Germany, E.U.)
• Vernon L. Smith – Vernon Smith – (Economics, Economic Science Institute, Chapman University, California, U.S.A.)
• Erik Snowberg – (Stanford University, California, U.S.A.) — Soon at CalTech
• Peter Norman Sorensen – (Finance, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark, E.U.)
• Martin Spann – (Marketing and Innovation, University of Passau, Germany, E.U.)
• Koleman Strumpf – Koleman S. Strumpf – (Economics, School of Business, University of Kansas, Kansas, U.S.A.) – Formerly: University of North Carolina, North Carolina, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Cass Sunstein – Cass R. Sunstein – (Law School, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• James Surowiecki – (The Wisdom Of Crowds) – (New York, U.S.A.)
• Paul C. Tetlock – Paul Tetlock – (Finance, Business School, University of Texas at Austin, Texas, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Philip Tetlock – Philip E. Tetlock – (Leadership, University of California at Berkeley, California, U.S.A.)
• Hal R. Varian – Hal Varian – (Chief Economist, Google, California, U.S.A.) — Formerly: (Haas School of Business, Department of Economics, University of California at Berkeley, California, U.S.A.)
• Dorina Tila – (Economics, George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.)
• Leighton Vaughan-Williams – (Economics and Finance, Business School, Nottingham Trent University, United Kingdom, E.U.)
• Michael Wellman – Michael P. Wellman – (Computer Science and Engineering, University of Michigan, Michigan, U.S.A.)
• Justin Wolfers – Justin J. Wolfers – (Business and Public Policy, Wharton Business School, University of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Eric Zitzewitz – Eric W. Zitzewitz – (Economics, Dartmouth College, Massachusetts, USA) – Formerly: (Stanford University, California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

-

Contest-by-contest breakdown at Caveat Bettor.

I was disappointed that Zogby only presented polling on 7 of the 20 contests on Super Tuesday.

Previous: Under this hypothetical scenario, the money would support a targeted advertising campaign to sell an Electoral College strategy to voters.

—

The McLaughlin Group (MP4 file):

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Issue Four: Back to Bloomberg.

Mayor of New York Mike Bloomberg may run for U.S. president as an independent. The political consequences of that option are more in focus this week. Mayor Bloomberg, by his social policy, is clearly seen to be that of a Democratic liberal. Bloomberg is pro-choice, pro-gun control, pro-gay rights, anti-Iraq and pro-immigration.

That being the case, Bloomberg will draw from the same well as Hillary. So if Hillary gains the Democratic nomination, she would find it very hard to win the general election. Bloomberg will be in the race, and Bloomberg will do to her what independent Ralph Nader in 2000 did to Al Gore; namely, take a decisive chunk from the Democratic candidate.

Lawrence O’Donnell, a committed champion of Hillary, what can Hillary do now to shield herself from the fatal damage that Mike Bloomberg could inflict on her?

MR. O’DONNELL: I’m a friend of all Democrats, not just Hillary. Listen –

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Are you trying to ease out of the Hillary commitment?

MR. O’DONNELL: Hillary is not the one who has a problem with Bloomberg. Rudy Giuliani’s candidacy, if he’s the nominee, would be destroyed by Bloomberg. Bloomberg’s done a better job as mayor. And Giuliani also would lose support on the right, and then he’d have nothing left. And Bloomberg, by the way, could win the thing if he gets in there in a three-way race. He’s no Nader.

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Republicans could vote for Giuliani and take the wind out of Bloomberg’s sails.

MR. BUCHANAN: John, Bloomberg will not win a single state. He does put New York State –

MR. O’DONNELL: Bloomberg can win New York. Bloomberg can win California.

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: We’re not talking about that.

MR. BUCHANAN: You think he’s going to beat Hillary in New York State? Are you kidding? He’ll draw off a million or 2 million votes. He’ll cede the state to the Republicans.

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: I want to know — but my question is, what is the story on Hillary in this? How does she evolve if Bloomberg gets in the race in July of next year?

MR. BUCHANAN: She can’t debate. She cannot have him in the debate with her and with the Republican because Bloomberg will kill her. She will not debate if he’s in the debate.

MS. CLIFT: I have enough confidence in Michael Bloomberg that if he thinks he’s going to be a spoiler and a Ralph Nader, he will not get into the race. That is not his purpose.

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: I know it’s not his purpose.

MS. CLIFT: Well, and it’s –

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: But it’s a de facto occurrence.

MS. CLIFT: No, it’s not, because –

MR. O’DONNELL: No, he can win.

MR. BUCHANAN: (Laughs.)

MS. CLIFT: — the party that’s cracking up is the Republican Party.

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Where are you hearing that?

MR. O’DONNELL: Bloomberg can win.

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: He can enter the race and win the election?

MR. O’DONNELL: Look at the electoral map. Bloomberg can win California.

MR. BUCHANAN: He’s hearing it up in New York, John.

MR. O’DONNELL: He can win New Jersey. He can win New York. He can win all sorts of states –

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Against the Democratic candidate?

MR. O’DONNELL: — that these other third-party candidates never could.

MR. BLANKLEY: Look, the thing you want to pay attention to in a third-party race is not necessarily the votes they get, but how they change the dynamic of a campaign. Perot didn’t take enough votes away to make a difference, but he changed the dynamic to the benefit of Clinton.

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Do you think –

MR. BLANKLEY: And let me just finish the thought. Bloomberg spending a $1 billion could change the dynamic in ways we can’t imagine.

MR. O’DONNELL: Right.

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Do you think it’s incumbent upon Hillary to do something to shield herself from Bloomberg? And, if so, what is it? Or do you need help? Lawrence O’Donnell?

MR. O’DONNELL: She doesn’t have to do anything now. Bloomberg has to make his decision. What she needs to do now is run the best possible campaign she can run so that her numbers –

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: But she must be distracted by Bloomberg.

MR. O’DONNELL: She just needs to keep her numbers up so that they intimidate Bloomberg.

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: But she knows that he could inflict fatal damage on her if he enters the race, the same way that Nader did.

MS. CLIFT: Hillary Clinton is a pro.

MR. O’DONNELL: Giuliani is in a panic over Bloomberg.

MS. CLIFT: Hillary –

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Who?

MR. O’DONNELL: Giuliani is in a panic over Bloomberg.

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Forget Giuliani. Let’s think about Hillary.

MR. BUCHANAN: Giuliani isn’t going to be the nominee.

MS. CLIFT: Hillary Clinton is a pro, and she knows there are a lot more twists and turns before Michael Bloomberg raises his hand.

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Why can’t Hillary preempt Bloomberg?

MR. BUCHANAN: Romney or –

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Why couldn’t [Hillary Clinton] put Bloomberg on her ticket?

MR. BUCHANAN: Another guy from New York? You’d lose the electoral votes of New York.

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Would Bloomberg run as vice president?

MR. BUCHANAN: You’d lose the electoral votes of New York if you got two from the same state, John. This would elect Romney or it would elect Fred Thompson.

I think, with regard to Rudy, I think that would be a mess, because I don’t think Rudy –

MS. CLIFT: I love the way –

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: The fog is not clearing here. The fog is not clearing. What does Hillary do?

MS. CLIFT: She pays no attention to Pat Buchanan, for starters. And second, I love the way everybody has a scenario that works out so that their side wins. And now there’s a fly on Lawrence’s head — (laughs) — to complete the picture.

MR. BLANKLEY: It’s Bloomberg, the fly in the ointment (Laughs).

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Exit question: Will Bloomberg, in 2008, be the political equivalent of Ralph Nader in ’00, a spoiler for the Democrats? Pat Buchanan.

MR. BUCHANAN: If he runs, he could finish off the Democrats.

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Eleanor.

MS. CLIFT: He doesn’t get into the race if that’s what it looks like. And he’s too smart. He’ll make the right assessment.

MR. BLANKLEY: He has an extraordinarily high regard for himself. He might get in thinking he can win, and it could adversely affect the Democrats.

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: You sound as though you don’t care for his candidacy.

MR. BLANKLEY: No, I would never vote for him.

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: No conservative would vote for him.

MR. BLANKLEY: He’s a nanny stater. I don’t like nanny staters.

MR. BUCHANAN: No conservative would vote for him.

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Are you sure of that?

MR. BUCHANAN: Yeah.

MR. BLANKLEY: He’s against trans fats, smoking.

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: He’s an extremely good and successful administrator. He has this program for New York that he brought forth a few months ago.

MR. BUCHANAN: Look, he’s against the burger Whopper, he’s against Winchester rifles and he’s against Winston cigarettes.

MR. O’DONNELL: Bloomberg is no Ross Perot.

MS. CLIFT: My kind of guy. (Laughs.)

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Do you think –

MR. O’DONNELL: Bloomberg is no Ross Perot. He’s much better than Perot. Perot got 19 percent. Bill Clinton won the presidency in a three-way race at 43 percent. Bloomberg doesn’t have to get 50 –

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Do you think –

MR. O’DONNELL: — he can win with 40 percent.

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: Do you think the Democrats are figuring out how to destroy Bloomberg?

MR. O’DONNELL: They will do that if it comes to it.

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: How will they do that? How will they do that –

MR. O’DONNELL: Well, they’ll try, but it will not work.

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: — when he’s got $5 billion?

MR. O’DONNELL: It won’t work. He’ll be impervious.

MR. BLANKLEY: He’s got more than $5 billion.

MR. O’DONNELL: He’s impervious to attack.

MR. MCLAUGHLIN: He’s impervious. You mean they can’t reach him?

MR. O’DONNELL: He’s not going to duck. He’s not going to hide on the issues. And there’s no horrible background story to try to tell about him.

—

NEXT: Is it time to buy some Michael Bloomberg event derivatives?

These leagues permit participants to manage virtual teams of professional players in a sport during a particular season and to compete against other participants based on the actual statistical performance of those players. [...]

Tom W. Bell will be very interesting in reading his take, I’m sure.

[...] He’s relaxed here, lounging in shorts and flip-flops, occasionally leaning over to his computer to check incoming e-mail, although he chooses his words with great caution, smiles infrequently and limits his eye contact. [...]

page 6:

[...] The first would have to be the 1987 drug bust in which he was implicated. This is a matter of public record for anyone who bothers to dig up the Court of Queen’s Bench of New Brunswick record F/CR/4/88, a sentencing document prepared by the Honorable Justice David M. Dickson. (David Baines, a long-time investigative journalist at The Vancouver Sun, broke the story last year.) In September, 1987, police busted a smuggling operation involving the import of 750 pounds of marijuana to Canada from Jamaica. Four men were charged: Calvin Ayre’s father, Ken; William (Bill) Roberts (living common law with Calvin’s sister at the time); Bill’s elder brother Patrick Roberts, and a man named Frank Maddock. The plan was a daring one, although doomed. Patrick bought a plane and flew to New Jersey to have long-range fuel tanks installed. Unwittingly, he also took on-board a tracking device, as the fuel tank installers were actually American customs officials. Roberts then flew to the Bahamas, of which Justice Dickson wrote: “Patrick Roberts, I may say, was, it seems, through this period in Nassau, to have been in company if not all the time certainly a lot of the time with another gentleman who is the son of one of the present accused and undoubtedly played a part in this whole scheme or was part of the whole arrangement, because that third party there had contact with the three accused here and was making phone calls back and forth.” And later: “Certainly the operation of the other chap with Roberts in the Bahamas appears to have been an important one.” Police testimony during the trial identified the third party as Calvin Ayre. Still, Ayre wasn’t charged. But the incident did point him onward to another important narrative turn missing from the official bio.

In prison for his role in the smuggling operation, Patrick Roberts met Erich Brunnhuber, a legendary Vancouver Stock Exchange scamster, infamous on Howe Street for his role in promoting stock that crashed on the VSE’s 1984 Black Friday. Some time in 1990, after they were both released, Roberts introduced Brunnhuber to Ayre. Roberts, by this point, had been given power of attorney over the financial affairs of the elderly majority owner of Bicer Medical Systems, a company that made heart valves. Ayre, being a friend of Roberts’s and a recent MBA graduate (City University, Seattle), was installed as president of the company. Within months, Ayre and Roberts had a disagreement that led to them parting ways. Roberts says the falling-out related to Brunnhuber, whom Ayre had involved in Bicer affairs despite his stock fraud conviction. And according to B.C. Securities Commission documents, Ayre assumed full control of the company in September, 1990. The company crashed and burned in less than a year. Trading in Bicer shares was halted and subsequently suspended in July, 1991. Bicer was delisted in March, 1992. The commission later found that Ayre had made distributions of shares without a prospectus, that he’d acquired large blocks of Bicer shares personally without disclosing these acquisitions, and that he’d failed to file insider reports disclosing his trading of more than three million Bicer shares, over which he had “beneficial ownership of, or control or direction over.” Ayre was fined $10,000 and banned from the exchange for 20 years, specifically from “becoming or acting as a director or officer of any reporting issuer” or “engaging in any investor relations activities.” [...]

Shocking.

[...] The New Jersey operation brought in revenues of more than $500 million over the last 18 months, officials said, and the New York outfit generated more than $30 million in the last 10 months. [...] Both relied on separate Web sites based in Costa Rica [50ksports.com]. Both operations mixed state-of-the-art technology with traditional, street-level bookmaking techniques, like using “runners” to bring bets to the boss. [...]

$500 million.

FIVE HUNDRED MILLION BUCKS.

When internet gambling and betting is legal in America, that’s what BetFair U.S.A. will take in.

(((And my whole damn point is that the more BetFair is profitable, the more its executives will be tempted to float socially relevant predictions, WHICH IS OUR END GOAL.)))