This new bill from our good friends Reps. Paul and Frank, the one that simply makes the UIGEA go away, is the greatest piece of legislation yet on the subject. Sadly, very few poker players are jumping up and down about this. This new bill would save us from burdensome regulation and taxes and bring online poker back to the “good ole days”. Why aren’t more people screaming for this version to pass.

Consistently, when I see an article about the new bill (that fixes all the government intrusion of the old bill), they lump it together with bills that would tax the poker player out of business. We should all be pushing as hard as we can for this new bill and throw the rest in the trash.

The last thing any poker player with an understanding of economics would ever want is a bill that taxes and regulates online gaming. The power to regulate is the power to destroy. It always has been. If we are to save the industry, there is only one answer to the UIGEA –eradicate it completely. The last thing any of us want is a precedent out there that the U. S. government has the right to tax, oversee and regulate internet sites. They are trying to get a foothold on the entire Internet and we must stop it in all forms.

Any organization that supports any other bills (such as the ones that tax and regulate online gaming) is no friend to the online gambler. Instead, they are clearly in the pocket of big Nevada gaming outlets that wish to clear the field of competition and take over the entire industry for themselves. With billions of dollars at stake, one can hardly blame them for trying, but we certainly do not have to hand them the bullets to shoot us with.

We now have a brilliant and safe bill to support. One without controversy. One without nasty side effects. Please call your congressmen and ask them to support the newest bill by [Ron] Paul and [Barney] Frank:

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c110:H.R.5767:

While you are at it, demand that the poker player’s alliance support this and only this bill to protect us all from the ravages of government. Also, demand that they stop supporting the IGREA – the earlier attempt by Frank that was plagued with licensing requirements and draconian taxation methods. For those of you that wish to pay additional taxes to the Federal Government –feel free.

BetFair Corporate – Jobs & Careers

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Previously: Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work?

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RELATED NOTE: I’m preparing a long post about the Cowgill/Wolfers/Zitzewitz paper… If you have positive or negative tips, contact me today…

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Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitwewitz – 2008-01-06

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[Psstt... I have high hopes about being able to publish the charts of expired BetFair contracts, too, soon. ]

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Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada

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Democratic caucus in Nevada (the Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired at 100):

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Republican caucus in Nevada (the Mitt Romney event derivative was expired at 100):

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Republican primary in South Carolina

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Republican primary in South Carolina (the John McCain event derivative was expired to 100):

“Field” = Mike Husckabee

Source: InTrade

Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada

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Democratic caucus in Nevada (Hillary Clinton = 57.4%):

BetFair Democratic prediction markets

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Democratic caucus in Nevada (Barack Obama = 42%):

BetFair Democratic prediction markets

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Republican caucus in Nevada (Mitt Romney = 94.9%):

BetFair Republican prediction markets

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Republican primary in South Carolina

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Republican primary in South Carolina (“Field” = Mike Huckabee = 49.5%):

BetFair Republican prediction markets

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Republican primary in South Carolina (John McCain = 47.1%):

BetFair Republican prediction markets

If Obama wins NV, the Dem context will be called for Intrade. If Edwards wins, that contest will be called for Zogby. If H.Clinton or another candidate wins, the contest will end in a draw.

Zogby does not have recent information posted about the GOP in NV nor the Dems in SC, so a meaningful contest with Intrade cannot be had. While it’s not a forfeiture by Zogby, at least it’s a tiebreaker for Intrade.

Election eve candidate probabilities posted at Caveat Bettor.

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Polls: Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney.

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The Hillary Clinton event derivative has just jumped to 61%, but this price/probability is not yet reflected in the chart below —as I write this early morning, the latest price on the graph I have under my very nose is 40%.

BetFair Democratic prediction markets

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BetFair Republican prediction markets

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Nevada is not listed by NewsFutures.

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[*] Political prediction markets feed on polls, and thus will never be the prime forecasting tools used by the political analysts.

(PRESS RELEASE) — Matchbook (www.matchbook.com) announced today that it has officially launched its online exchange betting gaming site, following its successful spring 2005 beta launch. The organization is now positioned to compete aggressively for the $100 billion North American sports betting market.

Unlike conventional bookmaking where the “house” accepts bets from clients and usually collects a five to 10 percent commission, exchange betting allows clients to eliminate the bookmaker and bet directly against one another. The result is radically lower transaction costs, as Matchbook only charges a two percent commission. In essence, Matchbook’s role is reduced to that of a clearing house, no different from other electronic exchanges such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange or NASDAQ.

The Antiguan-licensed Matchbook, created by an offshore team of financial traders and former bookmakers, is already leading the industry in North America by matching $10 million in bets per week.

“Matchbook is the bookmakers’ nightmare,” said Tom Ramsey, Matchbook’s vice president of development. “Exchange betting has already shaken up the $30-billion European sports-betting marketplace, and now the North American market is experiencing a similar transformation.”

Matchbook’s first two quarters of operations suggest that American sports bettors are taking to exchange betting even faster than their European counterparts have to date. Currently, there are more than 2,000 Matchbook users and almost all of the traffic on Matchbook is being driven by word-of-mouth, according to Ramsey.

“The North American marketplace has seen only one significant development in the past decade: the rise of online sportsbooks, which ended the monopoly held by Nevada-based and illegal bookmakers,” explained Ramsey. “But online shops still book by the same old rules. As the Europeans have demonstrated, when people can bet directly with each other, betting markets become notably deeper and offer much tighter spreads.”

ABOUT MATCHBOOK
Matchbook betting exchange (www.matchbook.com) is an online marketplace for predictions on sports, politics and other events of popular interest. The site allows clients (aged 18 and older) to bet against each other, applying the same electronic trading concept to sports betting. Matchbook launched in the summer of 2005 by a group of private investors, former options traders and professional sports bettors. It is currently licensed to process wagers by the government of Antigua and Barbuda, a sovereign nation in the Caribbean. It is further authorized by the Republic of Ireland to provide customer service support. Matchbook’s customer service center is located in Cork, Ireland.

Previous: Americans Need to Embrace Betting Exchanges as the Preferred Way to Bet.