Tag Archives: NCAA

Better Pricing for Tournament Prediction Markets

Posted on January 14, 2008 by Michael Giberson

Last year while working out a few thoughts on arbitrage opportunities in basketball tournament prediction markets at Inkling, it occurred to me that the Inkling pricing mechanism was just a little bit off for such applications. The question is whether … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Market Makers (Automated) | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Point Shaving in the NBA: An Economic Analysis of the NBA’s Point Spread Betting Market

Posted on July 27, 2007 by Jonathan Gibbs

My name is Jonathan Gibbs, and I was asked by Chris Masse to give a little insight into the paper I wrote for my economics honors thesis at Stanford University, which was recently referenced by Justin Wolfers in his NY … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Betting, Economics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

After Predicting an Event Outcome, Does Anticipated Regret Take All of the Fun Out of Watching the Event?

Posted on June 10, 2007 by Michael Giberson

“When people make these predictions, they have this little sliver of doubt – ‘What if I’m wrong?,’” [Stephen] Nowlis says. … The researchers dubbed this emotion “anticipated regret.” A pair Arizona State University professors, Stephen Nowlis and Naomi Mandel, have … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Psychology | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Secrets of an Inkling Top Trader: Spotting Riskless Arbitrage Opportunities

Posted on May 9, 2007 by Michael Giberson

The following is a lightly edited version of an item initially posted on my blog at Knowledge Problem: Secrets of an Inkling Top Trader: Spotting Riskless Arbitrage Opportunities: As mentioned previously at the Knowledge Problem, Inkling offers a public play-money … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Trading | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 14 Comments

Will InTrade-TradeSpots lose big after the (hypothetical) passing of the 2007 Internet Gambling Regulation and Enforcement Act???

Posted on May 3, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Internet Gambling Regulation and Enforcement Act: WINNERS AND LOSERS Aaron Todd: WINNERS 1. States That’s right, the biggest winners aren’t Internet gambling companies, nor is it the Internet gambler. It’s states, and states’ rights. Gambling has traditionally been regulated by … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments