Tag Archives: National League

Better Pricing for Tournament Prediction Markets

Posted on January 14, 2008 by Michael Giberson

Last year while working out a few thoughts on arbitrage opportunities in basketball tournament prediction markets at Inkling, it occurred to me that the Inkling pricing mechanism was just a little bit off for such applications. The question is whether … Continue reading →

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Combinatorial markets for independent events: Flawed use of approach hampers price discovery

Posted on October 15, 2007 by Michael Giberson

“Which teams will play in the 2007 World Series?“ An experienced market manager has created a market asking this question at the Inkling public markets, setting it up at the end of the regular season and listing contracts in each … Continue reading →

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Bayesian World Series outlook

Posted on October 2, 2007 by Michael Giberson

In the spirit of Caveat Bettor’s post on the Superbowl outlook, here is a similar assessment of the World Series outlook. Tradesports offers markets for the baseball pennant races (for winners of the American League and the National League) and … Continue reading →

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