Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Robin Hanson’s buddy in the Silicon Valley strikes it rich.

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PowerSet sold to the Evil Empire for $100 million.
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UPDATE: Interview.
UPDATE: ValleyWag.
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Barney Pell, then an “Enterpreneur In Residence” for a VC, co-founded PowerSet and became its first CEO —and then moved on to another position at PowerSet. (Barney Pell was probably a minority investor in PowerSet.)
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In a 2005 blog post, comes the explanation on how the [...]

A climate scientist takes a close look at InTrade’s global warming prediction markets…

Climate scientist James Annan:

What odds a hot 2008
About 20%, if you just want the executive summary (at least, that is the market “consensus”). If you want the details, read on…
Via Chris Masse at Midas Oracle, I see that Intrade has a betting market on 2008 global mean temperature being in the top 5 hottest years. [...]

The green area in this NASA image shows a plankton bloom in Lake Titicaca in South America.

by NASA

Prediction Market Rise —2008 Edition

My wish for the Year 2008:

Great Fun, Accurate Predictions, and Huge Trading Profits… for All

“Earth Rise” by NASA

Some global warming updates from GISS

Intrade (or any prediction exchange wanting to compete), please list global warming contracts!
The information will probably end up saving lives, as we can more efficiently allocate finite resources to global warming research and reduction (vs. preventative healthcare, disease control, micro loans, etc.). For instance, we spend a lot of money on the AIDS pandemic in [...]

The PopSci PPX prediction exchange organizes many socially valuable play-money prediction markets.

Popular Science – PopSci’s PPX:
Consumer Tech and Entertainment
SYMBOL NAME PRICE CHANGE % CHANGE
APPLEPC iPhone Increases Apple’s Computer Market Share 52.00 1.00 [...]

NASA’s build-your-own-spaceship contest

[A New York Times Magazine (July 1, 2007) article] looks at NASA’s attempts to use public competitions with large cash prizes (up to $2 million) to lure amateurs into developing better space technologies —from a more efficient astronaut’s glove to a new lunar lander.
Slate

Space Shuttle Atlantis from Launch Pad 39A at 7:38:04 p.m. EDT on mission STS-117 — 2007-06-08


by NASA

Prediction markets-friend Barney Pell is involved in the next Google, “PowerSet”.

PowerSet will blow away Google, the buzz goes, because this brand-new search engine has mastered the natural language search. Here’s Barney Pell’s account of the blogosphere’s comments on the unveiling of PowerSet’s business plan.
My Question: Do you see any kind of connection between natural language search and prediction markets?
Addendum (November 7): In a 2005 blog [...]

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