Midas Oracle .ORG » movie business

Liberal politicians (sucking up to the Hollywood lobby) have managed to destroy one promising financial innovation applied to the movie business.

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 29 Jun 2010 16:46:43 +0000

Cantor Fitzgerald abandoning box-office futures despite regulatory approval.

CNBC: The End of the Box Office Futures Business

CFTC Takes Jurisdiction Over “Prediction Markets”.

Jason Ruspini — Thu, 17 Jun 2010 03:04:05 +0000

First, a hearty congratulations to Robert Swagger and Trend Exchange. Along with the Cantor Exchange folks, they have run quite a gauntlet, and although there remains a tremendous obstacle in the form of the Lincoln amendment, I consider these exchanges to have already accomplished a great deal.

In its approval of Trend Exchange and preceding statements, the CFTC has confirmed a very broad definition of “commodity” that includes “event” contracts. The old debate about whether or not the CFTC has jurisdiction over “prediction markets” has been decided for now. Yet, there is considerable dissent within the Commission. Commissioners Chilton and Sommers have expressed disapproval that the Commission did not first address the general questions raised in the 2008 Concept Release. To this point, given the very broad definition of “commodity,” it now seems that Intrade and online sports exchanges could be in violation of the Commodity Exchange Act. The Commission does not consider an “economic purpose test” in the contract review process, and there is no statutory basis for such a test being used in jurisdictional determinations. Perhaps as a matter of practice, in accordance with the spirit of the Act, the Commission is considering such a test for jurisdicitional questions as I suggested in my Concept Release comments (surprisingly cited by the MPAA group). Otherwise, it seems inconsistent that exchange-traded sports bets, for example, would not also be considered commodities and be subject to the Act.

As a whole, the Commission has apparently decided to defer such questions and focus on specific techniques for ensuring that the new contracts fulfill the Act from the standpoints of manipulation and fair trading. To these ends, the CFTC will require, “entities and individuals who control a film’s marketing budget, release date or opening screen number to provide the Exchange with information regarding such decisions whenever that entity or individual holds a position of 1,000 or more contracts.” Additionally, the Commission will require a “firewall” within studios and distributors, and has restricted certain employees from trading altogether. These are procedures that I had recommended for event contracts, but they are relatively novel mechanisms in the commodities world. Whether or not the CFTC would agree to support special trading restrictions was the pivotal question in whether the contracts would be approved. I applaud the principled, politically independent thinking of the Commission and the can-do attitude of the Market Oversight Division — though some headline risk has been assumed here if something should eventually fall through the cracks.

BREAKING: The CFTC approves MDEX’s real-money prediction markets on movie box office.

Chris F. Masse — Mon, 14 Jun 2010 21:49:20 +0000

“In a 3-2 vote, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Monday afternoon approved a contract created by the company Media Derivatives that would allow traders to bet on the gross receipts that a movie pulls in during its opening weekend.”

UPDATE:

- NYT

- WSJ

- Felix Salmon

- “If we approve these types of things on the arguments posed in favor of them, we could be approving things like death pools or terrorism contracts, something Congress surely never intended.”

- Hollywood Reporter

- AP

- CNBC

- AFP

CFTC: 3-2 in favor of approval of movie contracts —SO FAR.

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 20 May 2010 14:42:48 +0000

What was said at the CFTC hearing on movie futures.

Hollywood Reporter.

Business Week. More.

CFTC.

Hollywood clashed with Wall Street on Wednesday at a government hearing about the potential sale of futures contracts linked to box office receipts of major motion pictures.

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 19 May 2010 21:10:42 +0000

“financial engineering synthetic derivatives”

More.

The CFTC plans to hold a public hearing next week to examine the growing controversy surrounding a plan by two firms to offer futures contracts tied to box-office receipts.

Chris F. Masse — Wed, 12 May 2010 15:27:04 +0000

The CFTC plans to hold a public hearing next week to examine the growing controversy surrounding a plan by two firms to offer futures contracts tied to box-office receipts.

Every investment in film is gambling.

Chris F. Masse — Mon, 10 May 2010 19:49:41 +0000

A Case for Movie Futures – by Buzz Potamkin, former studio executive and producer, in the biz for 40+ years, now a consultant

Felix Salmon’s hastily written NYT Op-Ed about the Cantor Exchange and MDEX

Chris F. Masse — Mon, 10 May 2010 07:16:27 +0000

You will learn nothing.

Watch the US House video instead. You will have more facts and more arguments.

UPDATE: Mike Giberson has a remark on Felix’s piece.

Max Keiser: Cantor Exchange and Media Derivatives Exchange would be an “insiders/traders’s paradise”.

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 20:45:07 +0000

Max Keiser – 12:00 into (17,000 views already):

I disagree with Max that a prediction market quote can change perceptions that much.

What the Cantor Exchange (HSX) and the Media Derivatives Exchange (MDEX) really said to the US Congress about movie futures (a.k.a. box-office derivatives) – [VIDEO]

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 16:20:20 +0000

House Committee Agriculture @ US House Of Representatives:

Download this post to watch the video if your feed reader does not show it to you.

–> Prof Schuyler Moore mentions InTrade 1:35 into.

Via Paul Bleier on FaceBook.

Previously.