Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.)

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• Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Bernd H. Ankenbrand – Bernd Ankenbrand – (Lecturer, Witten/Herdecke University, Germany, E.U.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• James Annan – (Global Environment Modelling Research Program, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan)
• Werner Antweiler – (UBC Election Stock Market, Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada)
• Kenneth J. Arrow – Kenneth Arrow – (Economics Department, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.)
• Tom W. Bell – Tom Bell – (Law School, Chapman University, California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Joyce E. Berg – Joyce Berg – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Accounting, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Richard Borghesi – (Finance, Texas State University at San Marcos, Texas, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Kay-Yut Chen – (Information Services & Process Innovation Lab, HP Labs, HP, California, U.S.A.)
• Yiling Chen – (Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Yahoo! Research Labs, New York, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Eric Crampton – (Department of Economics, University of Canterbury, New Zealand) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Ely Dahan – (Marketing, Anderson School, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, U.S.A.)
• Anita Elberse – (Marketing, Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Massachusetts, U.S.A.)
• Leslie R. Fine – Leslie Fine – (Information Dynamics Lab, HP Labs, California, U.S.A.)
• Gary William Flake – Gary W. Flake – Gary Flake – (MicroSoft, U.S.A.)
• Robert Forsythe – (Dean, College of Business Administration, University of South Florida, Florida, U.S.A.) — Previously: (Economics, Iowa Electronic Markets, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Lance Fortnow – Lance J. Fortnow – (Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, McCormick School of Engineering, Northwestern University, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Keith Jacks Gamble – Keith Gamble – (Economics (University of California at Berkeley) – California, U.S.A. — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Michael Gorham – (IIT Center for Financial Markets, Stuart School of Business, Illinois Institute of Technology, Illinois, U.S.A.) — Previously: (CFTC)
• Thomas S. Gruca – Thomas Gruca – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Marketing, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Refet Gurkaynak – (Department of Economics, Bilkent University, Turkey)
• Friedrich August Von Hayek — R.I.P. — The market as an information aggregation tool: The Use of Knowledge in Society —
• Robert W. Hahn – Robert Hahn – (Executive Director, Reg-Markets Center, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• James D. Hamilton – James Hamilton – (Department of Economics, University of California at San Diego – California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Robin Hanson – Robin D. Hanson – (Economics, James M. Buchanan Center, George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• M. Todd Henderson – (Law School, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Chris Hibbert – (Software Architect, Zocalo Project Manager, California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Charles Holt – Charles A. Holt – (Department of Economics, University of Virginia, Virginia, U.S.A.)
• Bernardo A. Huberman – Bernardo Huberman – (Social Computing Lab, HP Labs, California, U.S.A.)
• Frédéric Koessler – (Economics, Centre Nationale de la Recherche Scientifique, France, E.U.)
• Anthony M. Kwasnica – Anthony Kwasnica – (Business Economics, Department of Insurance and Real Estate, Smeal College of Business Administration, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)
• Nicolas Lambert – (Department of Computer Science, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.)
• John O. Ledyard – John Ledyard – (Economics and and Social Sciences, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, California, U.S.A.)
• Andrew Leigh – (Economics, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Australia)
• Steven Levitt – Steve Levitt – Steven D. Levitt – (Economics, Director of the Becker Center on Chicago Price Theory, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Saul Levmore – (Law School, University of Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Robert E. Litan – Robert Litan – (Vice President for Research and Policy, Kauffman Foundation, Kansas City, Missouri, U.S.A.)
• Thomas W. Malone – Thomas Malone – Tom Malone – (MIT Center for Collective Intelligence, Management, MIT Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Massachusetts, U.S.A.)
• Charles F. Manski – Charles Manski – (College of Arts and Sciences, Norwestern University, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Adam Meirowitz – (Department of Politics, Princeton University, New Jersey, U.S.A.)
• Paul Milgrom – (Department of Economics, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.)
• Tracy Mullen – (Information Sciences and Technology, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)
• Forrest Nelson – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Economics, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• George R. Neumann – George Neumann – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Economics, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Ryan Oprea – Profile – (Director of the LEEPS laboratory, Economics, University of California at Santa Cruz, California, U.S.A.)
• Gerhard Ortner – (University of Applied Sciences, Austria, E.U.)
• Marco Ottaviani – (Management and Strategy, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Illinois, U.S.A.) – Formerly: (Economics Department, London Business School, United Kingdom, E.U.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• David Paton – (Industrial Economics, Business School, Nottingham University, United Kingdom, E.U.)
• David M. Pennock – David Pennock – (Principal Research Scientist, Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Yahoo! Research Labs, New York, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Charles R. Plott – Charles Plott – (Economics and and Social Sciences, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, California, U.S.A.)
• David Porter – (Economics and Finance, Chapman University, California, U.S.A.)
• Todd Proebsting – Todd A. Proebsting – (Microsoft & University of Arizona, U.S.A.)
• Russ Ray – (Finance, College of Business, University of Louisville, Kentucky, U.S.A.)
• Daniel Reeves – (Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Yahoo! Research Labs, New York, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Paul W. Rhode – Paul Rhode – (US Economic History, College of Management, The University of Arizona, Arizona, U.S.A.) – Formerly: (University of North Carolina, North Carolina, U.S.A.)
• Thomas A. Rietz – Thomas Rietz – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Finance, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Richard Roll – (University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, U.S.A.)
• Thomas W. Ross – Thomas Ross – (UBC Election Stock Market, Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada)
• Rahul Sami – (School of Information, University of Michigan, Michigan, U.S.A.)
• Sam L. Savage – Sam Savage – (Consulting Professor, Stanford U., California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Thomas C. Schelling – Thomas Schelling – (Economics, School of Public Affair, University of Maryland, Maryland, U.S.A.)
• Emile Servan-Schreiber – (NewsFutures, New York City, New York, U.S.A. & Paris, France, E.U.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Robert J. Shiller – Robert Shiller – Profile – (Economics, Yale University, Connecticut, U.S.A.)
• Bernd Skiera – (Electronic Commerce, Goethe University, Germany, E.U.)
• Vernon L. Smith – Vernon Smith – (Economics, Economic Science Institute, Chapman University, California, U.S.A.)
• Erik Snowberg – (Stanford University, California, U.S.A.) — Soon at CalTech
• Peter Norman Sorensen – (Finance, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark, E.U.)
• Martin Spann – (Marketing and Innovation, University of Passau, Germany, E.U.)
• Koleman Strumpf – Koleman S. Strumpf – (Economics, School of Business, University of Kansas, Kansas, U.S.A.) – Formerly: University of North Carolina, North Carolina, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Cass Sunstein – Cass R. Sunstein – (Law School, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• James Surowiecki – (The Wisdom Of Crowds) – (New York, U.S.A.)
• Paul C. Tetlock – Paul Tetlock – (Finance, Business School, University of Texas at Austin, Texas, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Philip Tetlock – Philip E. Tetlock – (Leadership, University of California at Berkeley, California, U.S.A.)
• Hal R. Varian – Hal Varian – (Chief Economist, Google, California, U.S.A.) — Formerly: (Haas School of Business, Department of Economics, University of California at Berkeley, California, U.S.A.)
• Dorina Tila – (Economics, George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.)
• Leighton Vaughan-Williams – (Economics and Finance, Business School, Nottingham Trent University, United Kingdom, E.U.)
• Michael Wellman – Michael P. Wellman – (Computer Science and Engineering, University of Michigan, Michigan, U.S.A.)
• Justin Wolfers – Justin J. Wolfers – (Business and Public Policy, Wharton Business School, University of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Eric Zitzewitz – Eric W. Zitzewitz – (Economics, Dartmouth College, Massachusetts, USA) – Formerly: (Stanford University, California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

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(with thanks to Chris Hibbert of Zocalo)

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Iowa Electronic Markets – (IEM) – (Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)

Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science – (ICES) – (George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.)

Economic Science Institute – (ESI) – (Chapman University, California, U.S.A.)

HP Labs – (Hewlett-Packard, Palo Alto, California, U.S.A.)

Laboratory for Experimental Economics and Political Science – (EEPS) – (CalTech, California, U.S.A.)

Vecon Lab – (University of Virginia, Virginia, U.S.A.)

MIT Center for Collective Intelligence – (CCI) – (Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S.A.)

Yahoo! Research Labs – (Yahoo!, Pasadena, California, U.S.A.)

Laboratory for Economics Management and Auctions – (LEMA) – (Penn State University, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)

MicroSoft Research – (MicroSoft, Redmont, Washington, U.S.A.)

Google‘s Economics Group – (Google, Mountain View, California, U.S.A.)

Center for Prediction Markets – (National Chengchi University, Taiwan)

Knowledge Lab – (Witten/Herdecke U., Cologne, Germany, E.U.)

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Contact me to submit other entries.

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Via George Tziralis of Ask Markets

Prediction markets and elections, run by Eric Zitzewitz of Dartmouth. Eric ran though a slew of data looking at sports and financial prediction markets and compared it to election prediction markets. Bottom line, sports and financial prediction markets are highly efficient and closely track actual outcomes, while election prediction markets tend to systematically underprice favorites. This is the way it is in the US. In the UK, where election prediction markets have existed for over a century, they are much more efficient. Two explanations for the US election markets’ relative inefficiency are low repetition vs. high repetition domains (sports and financials have large numbers of contests while elections have far fewer contexts), and that bettors in the US have far less collective experience betting on elections than their UK counterparts. Interesting stuff.

Greg Linden’s post (from which I lifted the sentence posted in the title above)

Inkling Markets’ Adam Siegel

Collective Intelligence Foo Camp

List of attendees.

Prediction markets came up as topic of interest #1 —at least online.

Wiki participation was low, though.

I was invited, but couldn’t make it, due to time pressure. From the e-mail they [*] sent me at the time:

CI Foo is, by design, far from a typical conference. The participants are the presenters–so be prepared to demo or speak. We’ll schedule some sessions ahead of time, and set up a process for participants to announce sessions they want to offer. Expect the kind of exchange that happens at the best conferences during breaks and late into the night, plus time for fun at Google’s legendary campus [the "GooglePlex"]. The result will be an informal but intense and eye-opening couple of days.

[*]

1. Gary Flake, Microsoft Live Labs;
2. Tom Malone, Director, MIT Center for Collective Intelligence;
3. Tim O’Reilly, O’Reilly Media;
4. Hal Varian, Google Chief Economist.

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MIT Center for Collective Intelligence:

CCI Spring 2007 Seminar Series

All seminars will be held in NE20-336 (3 Cambridge Center).
CCI seminars are on Mondays and Thursdays during the spring semester of 2007
- Mon Mar 5, 4:00-5:30 Richard Hackman and Stephen Kosslyn, Harvard University, Brains and Groups: Findings from a Cross-Level Research Program
- Thur Mar 15, 4:00-5:30 Fernanda Viegas and Martin Wattenberg, IBM Research, Visualizing Wikipedia: Then and Now
- Thur Mar 22, 4:00-5:30 Brewster Kahle, Director and Co-Founder, Internet Archive, Universal Access to Human Knowledge (Or Public Access to Digital Materials)
- Thur Apr 5, 4:00-5:30 Marty Tenenbaum, Founder and Chairman, CommerceNet, Healthcare 3.0: Transforming medicine through collective intelligence
- Mon Apr 9, 4:00-5:30 Henry Jenkins, MIT Comparative Media Studies Program, How Collective Intelligence is Transforming the American Entertainment Industry
- Thu Apr 19, 4:00-5:30 Talk rescheduled for April 24
- Mon Apr 23, 4:00-5:30 Kevin Crowston, Syracuse University, The Developmental Arc of Participation in Massive Voluntary Collaboration
- Tue Apr 24, 4:00-5:30 Bo Cowgill, Google
- Thu May 3, 4:00-5:30 Seminar changed to Monday May 14
- Mon May 7, 4:00-5:30 Tara Lemmey, Chair, Technology Committee of the Markle Taskforce on National Security in the Information Age, Vast Innovation in Intelligence: The Collective Approach to National Security
- Mon May 14, 4:00-5:30 Justin Wolfers, Wharton School, Prediction Markets
- Thu May 17, 4:00-5:30 Doug Engelbart, The Augmentation of our Collective IQ

Keith Anderson, do you have something to wear?

#2. This MIT CCI wiki is mainly [about reproduction]. That is, John Malone and his folks have copied stuff from the outside and pasted it in their “wiki” —which looks more like a mosaic to me than a wiki.

#3. The MIT CCI handbook (or “wiki”) encompasses short eight pages, only —and none of them is a compelling reading.

#3. The list of authors of this handbook encompasses only three names —and I count John Malone in the three.

–> totally uninteresting
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Same can be said of the We Are Smarter wiki. Bad choice of software, inexistent participation, dubious content.

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My readers remember that when I expressed similar negative sentiments towards the MIT CCI, last year, John “phoney” Maloney (a P.R. agent for vendors) called my blog post “bombastic, arrogant and, sadly, hilarious“. Well, I’m inviting my readers to visit these two “wikis” today —they will plainly see by themselves that these two wikis do not live up to the hype created by John Malone.

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Previous:

- Prediction Markets = Junk Science???

- MIT Center for Collective Intelligence – Play-money prediction exchange

- MIT Center for Collective Intelligence – Play-money prediction exchange – REDUX

- “Here is a bombastic, arrogant and, sadly, hilarious entry from M. Masse in his not-so-modest Midas Oracle (?).”

- Two important clarifications about CFM and Midas Oracle

- Two important clarifications about CFM and Midas Oracle – REDUX

It sounds like it is a Web event (webcast or webinar?) coupled with a conference call. Not very well explained. No deep link. Only an e-mail.

Previous Blog Posts:

- MIT Center for Collective Intelligence – Play-money prediction exchange – REDUX
- MIT Center for Collective Intelligence – Play-money prediction exchange
- Prediction Markets = Junk Science???

My Question: Does anybody know which software/design the MIT CCI is using here?

The Answer: Shared Insights runs the MIT CCI‘s play-money prediction exchange with the software provided by Consensus Point.

More Information: Consensus Point (alias Foresight Technologies) has been providing prediction market software since 1996 (four years before NewsFutures‘s launch date). The Foresight Exchange code is open sourced, but is not typically used in enterprise settings. Consensus Point‘s Foresight Server software is completely different from that and is licensed to firms that want to run their own internal play-money prediction exchange. In addition, Consensus Point hosts internal prediction markets from 20 to 100,000 participants via the Foresight On Demand server (which also hosts the Washington Stock Exchange).

I completely overlooked that the MIT CCI is launching a play-money prediction exchange. The topics are CCI self-centric and thus totally uninteresting.

PREDICTION TOOL FAQs

What is a “Prediction Tool”?

The Prediction Tool on this site is based on the idea of prediction markets. “Prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event or parameter (e.g., Will there be at least 10,000 registered community members by March 31, 2007?). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter. Other names for prediction markets include information markets, decision markets, idea futures, and virtual markets.” (Source: Wikipedia)

OK I get it, sort of, but what does that mean?

We have made a set of predictions about the success of the “We” community. You get to buy and sell stock in these predictions based on how likely you think they are to come true. If the prediction turns out to be true, the stock will pay out $100 per share. If it turns out not to be true, the stock will pay out $0 per share.

The hope is that through trading stocks back and forth, the market value of the stocks will eventually closely match the probability of each event coming true.

My Question: Does anybody know which software/design the MIT CCI is using here?

The Answer (added October 25): Shared Insights runs the MIT CCI‘s play-money prediction exchange with the software provided by Consensus Point.