Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Mike Huckabee

Testing the new HubDub chart widgets

.hdwg div {color:inherit;font:inherit} .hdwg a{font:inherit} .hdwg div{margin:0px} .hdwg img {border:0px;padding:0px} .hdwg img {padding:0px}

what is this?

Who will the 2008 Democratic candidate for President be?
% chance over time

Barack Obama
Hillary Clinton
John Edwards
Someone else

Get this widget
Can you get it right? Make your prediction…

Hubdub – The News Prediction Game

-
.hdwg div {color:inherit;font:inherit} [...]

Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada + Republican primary in South Carolina


Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada

Democratic caucus in Nevada (Hillary Clinton = 57.4%):

BetFair Democratic prediction markets

Democratic caucus in Nevada (Barack Obama = 42%):

BetFair Democratic prediction markets

Republican caucus in Nevada (Mitt Romney = 94.9%):

BetFair Republican prediction markets


Republican primary in South Carolina

Republican primary in South Carolina (“Field” = Mike Huckabee = 49.5%):

BetFair Republican [...]

The New Hampshire Hypothesis

Finally, the BetFair blog publishes one interesting post. It was about time. From our usual British suspect, professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams (who was on ABC News lately) —who else.
How did everyone get New Hampshire so horribly wrong?
These are the markets which accurately predicted the winner of every single state in the 2004 US Presidential election and [...]

2008’s Hillary Clinton = 2004’s Howard Dean

2008 US presidential elections

Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade

- Yahoo! News US Political Dashboard
- Prediction Market Dashboard

Iowa Caucus: British blogger Mike Smithson is selling Hillary Clinton short.

Mike Smithson in the Financial Times today:
[...] Feeding the development of political gambling is in his own interest. Mr Smithson estimates that there are as few as 1,500 regular political gamblers [*] in the UK, although the number swells to millions on the eve of an election. US constraints on online gambling have impeded the [...]

Search

Post Categories