- 10% of them followed my links to the 2 HubDub prediction markets on John Edwards.

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Remember that those web stats count only the web visitors, not the feed subscribers —who are more numerous, and whom I focus more on.

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TAKEAWAY: A popular PMJ website, which would associate fresh news and betting recommendations, would send many people to the prediction markets.

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The mainstream media and the classic bloggers will never deal with real-money prediction markets the way they should be dealt with —for multiple reasons (moral, ethical, legal, etc.). And for other reasons, they will never link to the play-money prediction markets.

Look Justin Wolfers at the Wall Street Journal: He is the most excited about prediction markets. Yet, he does not link to InTrade directly. He does not link to the InTrade real-money prediction markets. Hence, his blah blah blah does not translate into more revenues for InTrade.

What it takes is a brand-new media organization, entirely devoted to prediction markets, and run by die-hard prediction market people.

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Please, guys, help me.

• cfm |-at-| midasoracle |.|-com-|
• chrisfmasse |-at-| gmail |.|-com-|

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The year 2008 in the field of prediction markets will be marked by these 4 events:

1. The CFTC will soon announce that InTrade, TradeSports and BetFair are still unwelcomed in the United States of America.
2. The prediction market academics (with some “notable exceptions“) are all ready to feed on the InTrade trading data, but won’t raise their little finger to help InTrade vis-a-vis the CFTC. (Some will even pen a letter to the CFTC warning them against the for-profit, commercial prediction markets “masquerading” the real thing, in their view.)
3. The Prediction Market Industry Association (whose website still features their initial P.R. output) has proved to be a fake organization run by a bunch of incapables.
4. For multiple reasons, the media and bloggers are still reluctant to quote prediction market prices, to publish dynamic charts, to deep-link to the real-money prediction markets, and to include economic science-based betting recommendations in their journalistic output.

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We acknowledge this hard and unfortunate reality.

We are going to change that reality in the coming decades, thanks to our plain hard lobbying work.

To do just that, we can’t count on our good friends the academics —who signed Bob’s sterile and puritan petition.

The long-term strategy is to go after the people —exposing them, in practical terms, with the social utility of the prediction markets.

The way to do that is to publish popular stories, on topics of their interest (e.g., sports) —centered around the information generated by the prediction markets.

Money is of the essence.

Hence, the quest for allies —beyond the prediction exchanges.

The rest of the plan should remain under the thick veil of secrecy, as it is explained below.

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• The Scientific Advisory Board is chaired by professor Michael Giberson. The Scientific Advisory Board of Midas Oracle is an international network of researchers in the field of economics who have agreed to give the Editorial Board ofMidas Oracle meaningful help in better understanding the prediction markets thru the economic lens.
• The Horizon 2015 Board gathers a group of decision makers dedicated to the execution of a couple of big, long-term strategic goals aiming at popularizing the public, real-money and play-money prediction markets. Our mission statement and actions won’t be detailed in public. The names of the decision makers who support our goals and actions won’t be listed anywhere, so as to avoid attracting business people who would join this group only in order to spice up their marketing literature.

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• cfm |-at-| midasoracle |.|-com-|
• chrisfmasse |-at-| gmail |.|-com-|

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by Bad Boy 69

Anyway.

1. I’m minding a grand “Midas Oracle Project“, and you can join it.
2. Emile believes that prediction markets represent “the future of journalism“. I am trying to mind, specifically, what form could take the “prediction market journalism“.
3. The idea is this: We need to put the charts of prediction markets inside news stories, and those stories should incorporate the meaning of the probability fluctuations (a la Justin Wolfers).
4. If we stay in our armchairs, nothing will happen, because most of the old-school journalists and bloggers don’t think much of the prediction markets. The prediction market infiltration in the Mediasphere and the Blogosphere is like a weak stream, right now. I don’t have the patience to wait until “2020″.
5. I don’t think that much will come out of the prediction exchanges. The BetFair blog and the InTrade newsletter are 2 pieces of crap —they compete in content quality with the Mongolian edition of the News Of The World.
6. If you look at the evolution of the media, you see that the old-school, dead-tree publications are slowly dying, and are replaced by professional blog networks —look especially in the IT industry, with TechCrunch, etc. What you have is writers who publish only for the Web, and who fill a vertical niche. (And, the Washington Post is now publishing content from… guess who.)
7. Needless to say, prediction market journalism is costly. Now, go directly to point #8, because that’s where the beef is.
8. Yes, I have “heard of Christmas” , and I understand Robin Hanson’s reasoning. [*] That’s where my funding idea lays. The idea is to think hard about who “might actually be willing to pay”. I am thinking of a class or organizations that “might actually be willing to pay”, provided 2 things. Number one, that I operate a certain twist on my form of prediction market journalism. Number two, that this project becomes the project of many prediction market people, or, better, of the whole prediction market industry —not just Chris Masse’s one. Those 2 things are essential.
9. So, Emile, wanna join the “Midas Oracle Project“?

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[*] APPENDIX:

The “high IQ” Robin Hanson:

Chris, you’ve heard of Christmas I presume. Many people circulate lists of items they might like for Christmas. If you did, would you circulate a list of million franc/dollar gift ideas for people to give you? Would you consider that list more honest/logical than a list of gifts of roughly the price you think others might actually be willing to pay?

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Is it just providing information … or promoting betting action?

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See, that‘s exactly why I want to develop my “Midas Oracle Project”.

Classic journalists and classic bloggers will never treat prediction markets with the maximum sophistication they deserve.

Only brand-new blog networks that will specialize in prediction markets will do a good job.

I’ll provide more details soon.

I hope that some of you will join this project. It should be a collective endeavor.

E-mail me to join.

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1. the richer and most technically sophisticated form of prediction market journalism
2. a very popular form of prediction market journalism

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Sounds like a too lofty dual goal; your feeling is right. My idea is to find an adéquation between this (too) lofty dual goal and the class of organizations that could fund that. I have had a crazy idea, which I submitted to MG and some others, and it might not be that crazy after all. In the coming days, I’ll reach out to more Midas Oracle people.

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Besides informing you of my intention, the purpose of this post is to create the “Midas Oracle Project” category and tag. Stay tuned…

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