Tag Archives: meta forecasting tools

We interrupt this bulletin devoted to the upcoming CFTC ruling to inform you that we are afraid that your “Jim Webb becomes VP” event derivative is now totally worthless —unless you’re a short seller (a.k.a. a layer).

WEBB DOESN’T WANT TO BE VP. – - InTrade – Democratic Vice President Nominee – Republican Vice President Nominee – BetFair – Next Vice President: – Democratic Ticket – Democratic Vice President Nominee – Republican Vice President Nominee – NewsFutures … Continue reading

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What I mean by “advanced” and “retarded”

- An event is “advanced” when it is before the others on the timeline. – An event is “retarded” when it is after the others on the timeline. – - I use the term “advanced, primary indicator” to talk about … Continue reading

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Clueless and retarded InTrade traders (“the sheep”) can’t take “no” for an answer. — Short sellers (“the wolves”) will BBQ them.

Still trading at 30% this Thursday morning. – - – US Military Chief Says Any Attack on Iran Would be Destabilizing. – Israel has signaled the U.S. and other allies that air operations to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities are not … Continue reading

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We interrupt this bulletin devoted to the upcoming CFTC ruling to inform you that we’re afraid that your “Israel-bombs-Iran-in-2008″ event derivatives are now completely… WORTHLESS —unless you’re a short seller.

Israel has signaled the U.S. and other allies that air operations to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities are not imminent. – - Explainer On Prediction Markets Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating … Continue reading

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The New Republic profiles the next Vice President of the United States of America —Jim Webb, maybe.

Via mister Bo Cowgill The New Republic – Some British betting bloggers are completely out of the loop. – UPDATE: Andrew Sullivan on Hillary Clinton’s exit statement. (He liked it.) UPDATE: InTrade forum thread. – InTrade – Democratic Vice President … Continue reading

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Hillary Clinton won’t be on the Democratic ticket. — It’s not going to happen. — N-E-V-E-R. — Not a chance. — Period.

George Will: [...] Surely she, the most polarizing Democrat, is not the only Democrat who can help Obama appeal to the voters who rejected him in Kentucky and West Virginia. And as his running mate, she would nullify his narrative. … Continue reading

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Don’t trade on the VP predictions markets. — Don’t bet on Hillary Clinton as VP. — Don’t listen to betting bloggers who tell you that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket. — Don’t believe in “vice presidential selection committees”. — Select well your primary, advanced indicators. — Choose your bets carefully.

The topic of this post is: Betting & Information – - #1. Don’t trade on the VP predictions markets. I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. Only 2 men in the world know what is going to happen: … Continue reading

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JIMMY CARTER: Picking up Hillary Clinton on the Democratic ticket “would be the worst mistake that could be made”.

The Guardian Take that, Mike R. – Reminder: I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. (But Bo compels me to publish about them anyway. ) – InTrade – Democratic Vice President Nominee – Republican Vice President Nominee – … Continue reading

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Who will be the next US Vice President, past January 2009?

UPDATE: – To be kept updated on the prediction markets, go to the frontpage of Midas Oracle, or click on the InTrade tag. – Here are the expired contracts about the Democratic vice presidential nominee (Joe Biden). – Here is … Continue reading

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75,000 people turned out to hear Barack Obama at Waterfront Park, Portland, Oregon, U.S.A.

- Oregon’s Democratic Primary – InTrade – BetFair – Kentucky’s Democratic Primary – InTrade – BetFair – NewsFutures Some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention. © NewsFutures – First look at individual states for … Continue reading

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