Tag Archives: meta forecasting tool
The prediction markets reflect the polls and the national media.
Jason Ruspini:
In general, futures markets are “less futures markets than immediate-past markets”.
It is hard to evaluate the markets fairly given how difficult it is for someone in New Hampshire to participate in them. Naturally then, the [prediction] markets more easily come to reflect the polls and national media – which were wrong in this case. [...]
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Trading
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Also tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Jason Ruspini, left-leaning media, New Hampshire, Politics, prediction markets, The Netherlands, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections
Prediction markets is a meta forecasting tool.
Bet on It! – (page two – page three + a crappy listing of exchanges) – by Steven Cherry
[...] Chris F. Masse, a [] consultant in Sophia Antipolis, France, who specializes in prediction markets, says that by 2010, “10 percent of Fortune 500 companies will have gone public about their use of internal prediction markets, [...]
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Forecasting (Science & Practice)
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Also tagged Bo Cowgill, Chris F. Masse, consultant, David Perry, France, Google, Hanson, journalist, Mike Giberson, Ron Paul, Sophia Antipolis, Steven Cherry, United States
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