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Here’s what I wrote in October 2008:

InTrade are going to open prediction markets on the future price of art. These innovative prediction markets will fail miserably.

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The InTrade prediction market on the Mei Moses Fine Art Index has attracted only 6 trades, so far.

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In November 2007, I said that the BetFair prediction markets on global warming (HSBC Investable Climate Change Index & ECX CFI Futures Contract) were “flawed products”. A few weeks later, they disappeared. Even the BetFair prediction markets on the highest and lowest UK temperature (which I was a bit more positive about) have now disappeared —and the “Climate” sub-category (under their “Special Bets” category) has totally disappeared in cyberspace.

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In both cases, I explained to my readers why those prediction markets would fail. Read my archives if you are curious.

NO PRIMARY INDICATORS = NO PREDICTION MARKETS

I even made the suggestion, one day, that the creator of any prediction market should be compelled to list the related primary indicators and their URLs —as a barrier to prevent futile prediction markets to be put on the Web.

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