Midas Oracle .ORG » McKinsey http://www.midasoracle.org Prediction Markets, etc. Mon, 13 Feb 2012 22:24:30 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 In spite of Robin Hanson’s pumping them up, very few companies use enterprise prediction markets. http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/01/22/enterprise-prediction-markets-fail/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/01/22/enterprise-prediction-markets-fail/#comments Fri, 22 Jan 2010 09:49:05 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=20231 truck-fail

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McKinsey:

While respondents tell us that tapping expert knowledge from outside is their top priority, few report deploying prediction markets to harvest collective insights from these external networks.

#FAIL

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2010/01/22/enterprise-prediction-markets-fail/feed/ 1 McKinsey on the X Prizes http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/08/11/mckinsey-on-the-x-prizes/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/08/11/mckinsey-on-the-x-prizes/#comments Tue, 11 Aug 2009 15:04:23 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=16134 Continue reading →]]> “Well designed prizes carry a strong element of theater that makes them newsworthy and media friendly. This messaging and brand-building potential is attractive to corporations looking to burnish their image or wealthy donors seeking to signal their arrival.”

Carrot

PDF file

Big Carrot – FAQ

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/08/11/mckinsey-on-the-x-prizes/feed/ 0 McKinsey on prediction markets? http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/26/mckinsey-on-prediction-markets/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/26/mckinsey-on-prediction-markets/#comments Sun, 26 Apr 2009 17:48:22 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13651 I exchange one McKinsey (if you have it) against one Forrester and one Gartner. Any taker? Contact moi.

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/26/mckinsey-on-prediction-markets/feed/ 0 How Best Buy gather the collected wisdom of customers and employees to better predict future events http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/02/12/how-best-buy-gather-the-collected-wisdom-of-customers-and-employees-to-better-predict-future-events/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/02/12/how-best-buy-gather-the-collected-wisdom-of-customers-and-employees-to-better-predict-future-events/#comments Thu, 12 Feb 2009 18:35:48 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=12858

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/02/12/how-best-buy-gather-the-collected-wisdom-of-customers-and-employees-to-better-predict-future-events/feed/ 0 The Promise Of Enterprise Prediction Markets — The McKinsey conference should have been rooted in the economic science and McKinsey should have invited economists. http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/04/16/the-promise-of-enterprise-prediction-markets-the-mckinsey-conference-should-have-been-rooted-in-the-economic-science-and-should-have-invited-economists/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/04/16/the-promise-of-enterprise-prediction-markets-the-mckinsey-conference-should-have-been-rooted-in-the-economic-science-and-should-have-invited-economists/#comments Wed, 16 Apr 2008 15:54:36 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6620 Continue reading →]]> McKinsey: The Promise Of Prediction Markets

James Surowiecki: The premise is that under the right circumstances, the collective judgment of a large group of people will generally provide a better picture of what the future might look like than anything one expert or even a small group of experts will come up with. [...]

James Surowiecki: The Wisdom of Crowds is not an argument against experts. It is saying that you shouldn’t rely wholly on the judgment of one person or even a very small group of people. But for a crowd to be smart, it needs to satisfy certain criteria. It needs to be diverse, so that people are bringing different pieces of information to the table. It needs to be decentralized, so that no one at the top is dictating the crowd’s answer. It needs to summarize people’s opinions into one collective verdict. And the people in the crowd need to be independent, so that they pay attention mostly to their own information and don’t worry about what everyone around them thinks.

James Surowiecki: [...] One shortcoming is that a lot of people inside organizations don’t find the market mechanism intuitive or easily understood. They find it very challenging to use, which limits the pool of people who participate.

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On James Surowiecki’s last remark, I would say that Robin Hanson’s MSR technology (which powers most enterprise prediction exchanges but Google’s one) brought much needed simplification to trading.

Overall, a good roundup, but the conference speakers should have mentioned Robin Hanson‘s pioneering work, and McKinsey should have invited him. He would have towered anybody and given great insights.

See Jed Christiansen for other remarks.

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As an aside, I’d say I prefer the sketch that is supposed to represent Bo rather than the real photo. The sketch makes him look like he is subtitle, charming, smiling, humble, and modest —quite a quantum leap. :-D

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Bo Cowgill

Bo Cowgill – Economics at Google

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  • PhotoShop designers improve the look of models on glossy magazine covers.
  • Sketchy artists improve the look of testosteroned, ultra-serious, ambitious, young business managers. :-D

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Previously: Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work?

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]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/04/16/the-promise-of-enterprise-prediction-markets-the-mckinsey-conference-should-have-been-rooted-in-the-economic-science-and-should-have-invited-economists/feed/ 2 McKinsey: The Promise Of Enterprise Prediction Markets http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/04/15/mckinsey-the-promise-of-prediction-markets/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/04/15/mckinsey-the-promise-of-prediction-markets/#comments Tue, 15 Apr 2008 22:55:33 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=6617 Continue reading →]]> McKinsey: The Promise Of Prediction Markets

With Bo Cowgill (Google) and James Surowiecki (The Wisdom Of Crowds).

Registration needed.

This is the transcript of the roundtable of the recent McKinsey conference at Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

I’ll excerpt this document, tomorrow. I don’t have time right now; I have to go.

You can put comments, just below, in the meantime, of course.

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