Silicon Alley’-s Jonathan Kennedy:
[…] In denouncing prediction markets as “-wrong,”- however, many pundits miss the point. Prediction markets do not provide accurate predictions of the future. (How could they? They simply represent the consensus guess of a group of people who aren’-t prophets). They merely provide the most-informed guess as to what that future is likely to be.
As numerous “-collective wisdom”- studies have shown, the consensus guess is always better than the majority of the individual guesses that are factored into it (not sometimes–-always). The collective wisdom, moreover, is often more accurate than that of ANY individual. Why? Because the market collectively incorporates far more information than is available to any one individual.
Like the stock market, prediction markets don’-t get it right every time. They do, however, provide a useful window into the collective expectations of others–-one that is often the best available estimate of the future. And they do sometimes get it right. Just as they did with Mr. McCain.
Bravo, mister Jonathan Kennedy.
Take that, Barry Ritholtz.
In an upcoming post, we will review the strengths and weaknesses of these thinly traded prediction markets…-
We are holding our breath, Barry. Hurry up.