Tag Archives: market-based technology

Does this prediction market chart look predictive to you?

Posted on August 13, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Karl Rove will resign from the White House. Emile Servan-Schreiber: Chris, how exactly do you define “predictive”? If your criterion is “last trading price above 50%”, that would betray a very limited understanding of the nature of both probability and … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Karl Rove resigns abruptly.

Posted on August 13, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Makes him look like he is guilty of something, then. Wall Street Journal + Portrait-Interview – The WSJ coverage of his resignation seems biased to me. New York Times + NYT Editorial I haven’t seen any Karl Rove prediction market … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment