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	<title>Midas Oracle .ORG &#187; Manchester</title>
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	<link>http://www.midasoracle.org</link>
	<description>Prediction Markets, etc.</description>
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		<title>UNITED KINGDOM: Betfair Academy dates for London, Manchester and Newcastle</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/04/united-kingdom-betfair-academy-dates-for-london-manchester-and-newcastle/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/04/united-kingdom-betfair-academy-dates-for-london-manchester-and-newcastle/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Jul 2007 11:34:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Events & Meetings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Betfair Academy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Betfair Customer Services]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GBP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ireland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[London]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manchester]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Newcastle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Norwich]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UK Academy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[BetFair forum: Betfair Customer Services 22 Jun 15:02 We want you to be part of the Betfair Academy What is it, why me and what can I get out of it? Read on&#8230; The Betfair Academy is a training seminar &#8230; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/04/united-kingdom-betfair-academy-dates-for-london-manchester-and-newcastle/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://forum.betfair.com/" title="Markets">BetFair forum</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Betfair Customer Services     22 Jun 15:02<br />
We want you to be part of the Betfair Academy<br />
What is it, why me and what can I get out of it? Read on&#8230;</p>
<p><strong>The Betfair Academy is a training seminar specifically designed to teach our customers how to explain and demonstrate Betfair effectively.</strong> We know our platform isn&#8217;t the easiest concept to explain to regular punters, so we&#8217;ve created this eight-hour course to sharpen up your skills and enhance your potential for profit. Personal instruction is always the most effective way to pass knowledge on.<br />
<strong>Who is it designed for?</strong><br />
Existing clients who want to bring more punters to Betfair &#8211; and be rewarded for it. The course is thorough and is aimed at active customers with a good understanding of how the site works. Novices should attend Betfair Education sessions first before registering.<br />
<strong>Why me?</strong><br />
You are a serious enthusiast or you may have referred someone via the Refer and Earn scheme but youâ€™d like to take it to another level. If making money from teaching other people about Betfair appeals to you, then read on.<br />
<strong>Whatâ€™s involved on the day?</strong><br />
The course contains topics such as Explaining the Basics, How to Adapt Your Teaching Style for Different Audiences, What is the API, The Percentages of Betting, and much more. You will receive a 100+ page course manual with a wealth of information you can refer to in the future. Each student will be asked to demonstrate features of the site to the class as part of the course and then sit an exam to gain their qualification.<br />
<strong>What will it give me that I don&#8217;t already have?</strong><br />
Many of us know how to use the site ourselves, but struggle when trying to explain it to a friend. Specific training is given on how to modify the way you teach for different people.<br />
Graduates of the Betfair Academy will receive an official endorsement from Betfair. We will list your details on a Betfair Accredited Trainers Directory, which will enable you to charge for your tuition if you choose to do so. This will provide you with extra credibility and extra earning power. Some of graduates now run their own courses.<br />
<strong>How will Betfair help me?</strong><br />
In addition to being listed on the <strong><a href="http://help.betfair.com/contents/itemId/i65767644/index.en.html" title="Directory of Trainers">Accredited Trainers Directory</a></strong>, you will have access to Betfair training materials, merchandise and first look at new educational programmes we are developing.<br />
<strong>What it&#8217;s not:</strong><br />
If you are looking for in-depth and expert tuition in how to use Betfair, this is not the course. We want to train you to train others. Betfair Education sessions are aimed at individual customers wanting to improve their trading and decision-making.</p>
<p><strong>Dates &amp; Venues:</strong><br />
UK Academy<br />
Wednesday 15 August 2007 from 10am to 6pm in Newcastle.<br />
August 20 and 21, 2-5pm and 7-10pm &#8211; in Norwich<br />
Tuesday 18 September 2007 from 10am to 6pm in Manchester.<br />
Monday 15 October 2007 from 10am to 6pm in London<br />
Further dates for events, particularly in London and Ireland, will be announced shortly.</p>
<p>The Price:<br />
Â£39.95</p></blockquote>
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		<title>The huge benefit of strict gun control laws in Great Britain.</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/06/16/the-huge-benefit-of-strict-gun-control-laws-in-great-britain/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/06/16/the-huge-benefit-of-strict-gun-control-laws-in-great-britain/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 Jun 2007 09:32:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Humor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BBC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Great Britain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manchester]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/06/16/the-huge-benefit-of-strict-gun-control-laws-in-great-britain/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[BBC News: A masked gang armed with a saw robbed a betting shop in Greater Manchester.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>BBC News: <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/manchester/6759451.stm" title="Gang with saw raid betting shop">A masked gang <strong>armed with a saw</strong> robbed a betting shop in Greater Manchester.</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>2016 Summer Olympics in Chicago: Prediction Markets, anyone??</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/18/2016-summer-olympics-in-chicago-prediction-markets-anyone/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/18/2016-summer-olympics-in-chicago-prediction-markets-anyone/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Apr 2007 08:23:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis (Accuracy & Precision)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Analysis (Market Proposals)]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Exchanges & Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Expiry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Prices & Probabilities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 Summer Olympics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[accuracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[betting markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bill Barnhart]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago Tribune]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Perry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[event derivative markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Olympic Committee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[InTrade]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IOC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[London]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manchester]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Olympics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paris]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prediction markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russell Andersson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thomas Rietz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.K.'s Casino Advisory Panel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[University of Chicago Law School]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/18/2016-summer-olympics-in-chicago-prediction-markets-anyone/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Next: Chicago won&#8217;t have the Olympics in 2016. Next: The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and gullible bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one that fared the worst. Next: Why an analyst should assess each newly &#8230; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/18/2016-summer-olympics-in-chicago-prediction-markets-anyone/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong><em>Next</em>: <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/10/02/chicago-wont-have-the-olympics-in-2016/">Chicago won&#8217;t have the Olympics in 2016.</a></strong></p>
<p><strong><em>Next</em>: <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/10/05/chicago-olympics-2/">The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and gullible bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one that fared the worst.</a></strong></p>
<p><strong><em>Next</em>: <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/10/03/assessing-prediction-markets/">Why an analyst should assess each newly created prediction market.</a></strong></p>
<p>&#8212;-</p>
<p>Why Chicago Tribune&#8217;s Bill Barnhart, Iowa Electronic Markets&#8217; Thomas Rietz, University of Chicago Law School&#8217;s Cass Sunstein, Consensus Point&#8217;s David Perry and HedgeStreet&#8217;s Russell Andersson are totally incompetent prediction market analysts.</p>
<p>Those five incompetents would be better off minding their statement before singing like idiotic canaries.</p>
<p><a title="Olympics venue an intriguing bet, just not in Chicago" href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/yourmoney/chi-0704160447apr17,0,2547860.column?coll=chi-business-hed">Those five blablating incompetents are selling the idea that prediction markets to determine the next venue for the 2016 Summer Olympics is a great idea and would be accurate</a>.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s what happened to the Paris 2012 event derivative, my boys:</p>
<p><img title="Paris 2012" src="http://www.midasoracle.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/01/paris-to-be-host-city-for-2012-olympics.gif" alt="Paris 2012" width="300" height="150" /></p>
<p>Chart courtesy of <a title="TradeSports" href="http://www.tradesports.com/">TradeSports</a>-<a title="InTrade" href="http://www.intrade.com/v2/">InTrade</a>.</p>
<p><a title="UKâ€™s super casino: Manchester rejoices; Blackpool is disapointed." href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/02/uks-super-casino-manchester-rejoices-blackpool-is-disapointed/">Here&#8217;s what I wrote</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>TAKEAWAY: Itâ€™s very difficult to figure out what will be the decision of a small, secretive committee â€”whether itâ€™s a group of aristocrats (International Olympic Committee) or a group of civil servants (U.K.â€™s Casino Advisory Panel).</p></blockquote>
<p>Paris had the best case, but the Olympics aristocrats chose London anyway.</p>
<p>Same picture for the UK&#8217;s Super Casino: <a style="font-weight: bold" title="UKâ€™s super casino: Manchester rejoices; Blackpool is disapointed." href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/02/uks-super-casino-manchester-rejoices-blackpool-is-disapointed/">Blackpool was the BetFair favorite (62.5%), but the committee picked up Manchester</a><span style="font-weight: bold">.</span></p>
<p>Please, Chicago Tribune&#8217;s Bill Barnhart, Iowa Electronic Markets&#8217; Thomas Rietz, University of Chicago Law School&#8217;s Cass Sunstein, Consensus Point&#8217;s David Perry, HedgeStreet&#8217;s Russell Andersson, <span style="font-weight: bold">tell the truth; don&#8217;t sell fantasy.</span></p>
<p>And if you are completely incompetent, then leave your seat to someone else.</p>
<p><strong><em>Next</em>: <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/09/29/olympics-chicago/">Will Chicago get the Olympics? Donâ€™t bet on it. Too risky.</a></strong></p>
<p><strong><em>Next</em>: <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/10/02/chicago-wont-have-the-olympics-in-2016/">Chicago won&#8217;t have the Olympics in 2016.</a></strong></p>
<p><em>Next</em>: <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/10/05/chicago-olympics-2016-summer-olympics/">Could we have divined that Chicago was a lemon?</a></p>
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		<title>UK&#8217;s super casino: Manchester rejoices; Blackpool is disapointed.</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/02/uks-super-casino-manchester-rejoices-blackpool-is-disapointed/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/02/uks-super-casino-manchester-rejoices-blackpool-is-disapointed/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Feb 2007 11:40:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis (Accuracy & Precision)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Analysis (Meta)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exchanges & Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Expiry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2012 Olympics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Culture Secretary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[judge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Las Vegas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[London]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manchester]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paris]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tessa Jowell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/02/uks-super-casino-manchester-rejoices-blackpool-is-disapointed/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Blackpool Today: &#8220;Blackpool had the best case, proved it and still lost&#8221; is a sentiment shared by a town in shock at the decision to award the lucrative prize to Manchester. Our North West neighbours were, said the CAP, the &#8230; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/02/uks-super-casino-manchester-rejoices-blackpool-is-disapointed/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.blackpoolonline.co.uk/viewarticle.aspx?articleid=2014766&amp;sectionid=62" title="Casino - a colossal blunder">Blackpool Today</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;<strong>Blackpool had the best case, proved it and still lost</strong>&#8221; is a sentiment shared by a town in shock at the decision to award the lucrative prize to Manchester. Our North West neighbours were, said the CAP, the best bet on all counts &#8211; for helping assist regeneration of a poor district and as the social impact test bed for Las Vegas-style glitz and gambling. Not so, say MPs, council leaders and Gazette readers who today made an 11th hour appeal to Culture Secretary Tessa Jowell to think again ahead of the crucial Parliamentary vote on the matter.</p></blockquote>
<p>The City of Paris, too, had the best case in bidding for hosting the 2012 Olympics &#8212;it lost to London. The error (or &#8220;bias&#8221;?) is to think that small, secretive committees only judge on merits.</p>
<p><em>Previous:</em> <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/30/17-new-british-casinos/" title="17 New British Casinos">17 New British Casinos</a> &#8211; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/26/in-which-british-city-will-the-super-casino-be-built/" title="UK's Super Casino">BetFair predicted Blackpool (62,5%)</a>.</p>
<p>&#8211;&gt; Beware event derivatives whose expiry is based on the decision of a group of people&#8230; you know close to nothing about. (((Psstt&#8230; I will talk to you, later on, about&#8230; <em>event derivatives whose expiry is based on the decision of a group of people&#8230; you know <strong>everything</strong> about</em>. Ha! ha! ha! I&#8217;m serious. It&#8217;s the high end of my concept of <a href="http://www.chrisfmasse.com/3/3/" title="X Groups">X Groups</a>.)))</p>
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		<title>17 New British Casinos</title>
		<link>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/30/17-new-british-casinos/</link>
		<comments>http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/30/17-new-british-casinos/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Jan 2007 17:50:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris F. Masse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis (Accuracy & Precision)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Analysis (Meta)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exchanges & Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Expiry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2012 Olympics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bath]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Olympic Committee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kingston]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Leeds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[London]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manchester]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Milton Keynes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paris]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scarborough]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Solihull]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Southampton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stonehenge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Swansea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Torbay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.K. government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.K.'s Casino Advisory Panel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wolverhampton]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/30/17-new-british-casinos/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Via Betting Market, the U.K. government: After careful consideration of the proposals and all the relevant evidence against the remitted criteria, the Panel recommend that the area in which a regional casino should be licensed is the City of Manchester. &#8230; <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/30/17-new-british-casinos/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Via <a href="http://del.icio.us/bettingmarket" title="Niall O'Connor">Betting Market</a>, the <a href="http://www.culture.gov.uk/cap/pressnotices/press_finalpanelreport300107.htm" title="Casino Advisory Panel Recommends to Secretary of State Where 17 New Casinos Should Be Located">U.K. government</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>After careful consideration of the proposals and all the relevant evidence against the remitted criteria, the Panel recommend that the area in which a regional casino should be licensed is the City of <strong>Manchester.</strong></p>
<p>After careful consideration of the proposals and all the relevant evidence against the remitted criteria, the Panel recommend that the areas in which large casinos should be licensed are: <strong>Great Yarmouth</strong>; <strong>Kingston-upon-Hull</strong>; <strong>Leeds</strong>; <strong>Middlesbrough</strong>; <strong>Milton Keynes</strong>; <strong>Newham</strong>; <strong>Solihull</strong> and <strong>Southampton.</strong></p>
<p>After careful consideration of the proposals and all the relevant evidence against the remitted criteria, the Panel recommend that the areas in which small casinos should be licensed are: <strong>Bath [*] and North East Somerset</strong>; <strong>Dumfries and Galloway</strong>; <strong>East Lindsey</strong>; <strong>Luton</strong>; <strong>Scarborough</strong>; <strong>Swansea</strong>; <strong>Torbay and Wolverhampton.</strong></p></blockquote>
<p>[*] I love the City of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bath%2C_Somerset" title="Wikipedia">Bath</a>. It&#8217;s beautiful. There&#8217;s a good university, and there are Roman remains &#8212;the Roman &#8220;baths&#8221;; naturally warm waters (hot springs). Plus, it&#8217;s not far away from <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stonehenge" title="Wikipedia">Stonehenge</a>. I recommend it.</p>
<p>&#8212;</p>
<p>OK, so the prediction market news of the day is that the super casino license (or &#8220;licence&#8221;, as they say) is granted to <strong>Manchester</strong> &#8212;while <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/26/in-which-british-city-will-the-super-casino-be-built/" title="In which British city will the super-casino be built?">BetFair predicted <strong>Blackpool</strong> (62,5%)</a>. Let&#8217;s remember that Paris was the favorite to be the host city of the 2012 Olympics (it will be London):</p>
<p><a href="http://www.intrade.com/" title="InTrade"><img src="http://www.midasoracle.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/01/paris-to-be-host-city-for-2012-olympics.gif" alt="Paris 2012 Olympics" id="image1281" /></a></p>
<p>&#8212;</p>
<p>TAKEAWAY: <strong>It&#8217;s very difficult to figure out what will be the decision of a small, secretive committee</strong> &#8212;whether it&#8217;s a group of aristocrats (International Olympic Committee) or a group of civil servants (U.K.&#8217;s Casino Advisory Panel).</p>
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