Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: London School of Economics

An Inconvenient Truth – Al Gore’s movie

I just saw the DVD —and so did George Tziralis’ brother.

The main points:

The Keeling curve, measuring CO2 from the Mauna Loa Observatory. [See chart below.]
The retreat of numerous glaciers is shown in before-and-after photographs (see Retreat of glaciers since 1850).
A study by researchers at the Physics Institute at the University of Bern and the European [...]

HOW THE HELL CAN YOU TRUST A PREDICTION EXCHANGE THAT CAN’T SPELL CORRECTLY???

6 DAYS LATER, SAME TYPO:

[*] There are 3 “C”s actually. Those Irish bozos are not even able to spell it correctly. –> UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). Look at the logo, below.

UPDATE: They have corrected the spelling on Saturday, December 15, 2007.
Previously: The London School of Economics chose InTrade-TradeSports over BetFair-TradeFair for [...]

InTrade are “aware”; BetFair are not.

David Pennock, the Yahoo! research scientist, in April 2007:
One of the great things about InTrade (recently split from TradeSports) is that they are open to suggestions from wide-eyed academics. [...]
Exactly.
Previously: The London School of Economics chose InTrade-TradeSports over BetFair-TradeFair for floating event derivatives on global warming.

The London School of Economics chose InTrade-TradeSports over BetFair-TradeFair for floating event derivatives on global warming.

The London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), located at the center of London (nearby the Waterloo Bridge), chose not to partner with BetFair-TradeFair, the world’s #1 prediction exchange (betting exchange), located west of London (near the Hammersmith Bridge). Instead, the CEP went with Ireland-based InTrade —North America’s illegal market leader, and the [...]

InTrade’s global warming prediction markets are more socially interesting than BetFair’s ones.

InTrade has just opened (and not publicized yet on their site feed) a set of global warming prediction markets —more exactly, event derivative markets on whether the world’s biggest national governments will soon agree to reduce CO2 emissions under the UNFCCC treaty. They are, in my view, more interesting than the pitiful BetFair’s prediction markets [...]

PREDICTION MARKET BLOGS: How many feed subscribers??

TAKEAWAY:
#1. Very few readers do subscribe to our prediction market blogs using a (PC-based or Web-based) feed reader —although, on Midas Oracle, the number of subscribers is higher than the daily visitors coming directly from browser bookmarks (i.e., other than the people coming from Google Search, which is very high).
#2. Other than CFM, Midas [...]

BetFair vs. TradeSports-InTrade

“Anonymous” to Patri Friedman (thanks to Jason Ruspini for the link):
Have you tried Betfair? www.betfair.com . Chris Masse over at Midas Oracle www.midasoracle.com — the main prediction markets blog — tends to support them over InTrade. The interface is not as nice as InTrade’s though (they give punter odds rather than decimal probability prices).
#1. BetFair [...]

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