Tag Archives: London School of Economics

What uses for the prediction markets on geopolitical events? — [ANALYSIS]

–> Well researched and balanced article from London School of Economics’s Matthew Partridge: The intelligence and security community also has mixed views. John F McCreary, the Chief Analysis Officer for KGS Security, who had a senior role at the United … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

An Inconvenient Truth – Al Gore’s movie

I just saw the DVD —and so did George Tziralis’ brother. The main points: The Keeling curve, measuring CO2 from the Mauna Loa Observatory. [See chart below.] The retreat of numerous glaciers is shown in before-and-after photographs (see Retreat of … Continue reading

Posted in Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

HOW THE HELL CAN YOU TRUST A PREDICTION EXCHANGE THAT CAN’T SPELL CORRECTLY???

6 DAYS LATER, SAME TYPO: [*] There are 3 “C”s actually. Those Irish bozos are not even able to spell it correctly. –> UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). Look at the logo, below. UPDATE: They have corrected … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

InTrade are “aware”; BetFair are not.

David Pennock, the Yahoo! research scientist, in April 2007: One of the great things about InTrade (recently split from TradeSports) is that they are open to suggestions from wide-eyed academics. [...] Exactly. Previously: The London School of Economics chose InTrade-TradeSports … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The London School of Economics chose InTrade-TradeSports over BetFair-TradeFair for floating event derivatives on global warming.

The London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), located at the center of London (nearby the Waterloo Bridge), chose not to partner with BetFair-TradeFair, the world’s #1 prediction exchange (betting exchange), located west of London (near the Hammersmith … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

InTrade’s global warming prediction markets are more socially interesting than BetFair’s ones.

InTrade has just opened (and not publicized yet on their site feed) a set of global warming prediction markets —more exactly, event derivative markets on whether the world’s biggest national governments will soon agree to reduce CO2 emissions under the … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

PREDICTION MARKET BLOGS: How many feed subscribers??

TAKEAWAY: #1. Very few readers do subscribe to our prediction market blogs using a (PC-based or Web-based) feed reader —although, on Midas Oracle, the number of subscribers is higher than the daily visitors coming directly from browser bookmarks (i.e., other … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Midas Oracle Statistics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

BetFair vs. TradeSports-InTrade

“Anonymous” to Patri Friedman (thanks to Jason Ruspini for the link): Have you tried Betfair? www.betfair.com . Chris Masse over at Midas Oracle www.midasoracle.com — the main prediction markets blog — tends to support them over InTrade. The interface is … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments