Tag Archives: location

I do not trust John Battelle. And I don’t need to know what my “friends” are doing near the spots I visit. — [RANT]

John Battelle: “Trust me on this.” I don’t trust him. His iPad predictions were way out of the stadium. As for “Color”, location does not matter much in my life. UPDATE: John Gruber confirms it’s crap. UPDATE: Confirmation, “Color” is … Continue reading

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DROUGHT ALMOST KILLED OFF THE HUMAN SPECIES (AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF PREDICTION MARKETS) SOME 70,000 YEARS AGO.

Human beings may have had a brush with extinction 70,000 years ago, an extensive genetic study suggests. The human population at that time was reduced to small isolated groups in Africa, apparently because of drought. – -

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The PopSci PPX prediction exchange organizes many socially valuable play-money prediction markets.

Popular Science – PopSci’s PPX: Consumer Tech and Entertainment SYMBOL NAME PRICE CHANGE % CHANGE APPLEPC iPhone Increases Apple’s Computer Market Share 52.00 1.00 1.96 BLUBY09 Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD Format War 73.75 -0.75 -1.01 DRMRIP Major Record Labels Drop DRM … Continue reading

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Tomorrow is the 60th anniversary of the Marshall Plan. I was going to talk about the Marshall Plan. But instead I’ll talk about the Mwenda Plan, inaugurated today.

Rock star/activist Bono, beginning a rebuttal to Andrew Mwenda, who argued forcefully against foreign aid in Africa – (TED blog) Here’s the object of the polemique: The session culminated with a healthy dose of controversy. Ugandan journalist Andrew Mwenda gave … Continue reading

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With a prediction market, everyone brings a small piece of information to the table, and the consensus proves surprisingly accurate.

The American: A Bettor World – Once apprenticed to a bookie, Justin Wolfers of Wharton now draws economic insight from the behavior of gamblers. [...] Last year, for instance, the aggregate of small bettors who placed wagers on electoral results … Continue reading

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CME – Hurricane futures markets 101

South Florida Sun-Sentinel: [...] After a storm begins forming off the coast of Africa, for example, a buyer can obtain a contract covering the first storm to make landfall in Florida. The risk level of the storm will be determined … Continue reading

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Danger of “self-fulfilling prophecy” in political event markets

People near the eye of the storm in DC have a way of always getting drawn to one side or the other, with very few exceptions. Those biases also creep into the polling business, making the outcomes of American politics … Continue reading

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The Worst Predictions of 2006

Satellite radio will rock, eBay’s on a roll in China, and Republicans will continue to rule in Washington. Thank God, prediction markets did not make the Business Week list. And to HedgeStreet’s despair [*]: PREDICTION: “A very active hurricane season … Continue reading

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