Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: legislator

How to run enterprise prediction markets… legally

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 10, 2008 — 1 Comment

Private Prediction Markets and the Law – (PDF file) – by Tom W. Bell – 2008-05-18
Abstract
This paper analyses the legality of private prediction markets under U.S. law, describing both the legal risks they raise and how to manage those risks. As the label “private” suggests, such markets offer trading not to the public but rather [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Recessions of 2003, 2004, 2006 & 2006

Written by Caveat Bettor on February 1, 2007 — Leave a Comment

From today’s WSJ (subscription required):
Meanwhile, back at the economy, you may have noticed that 2006 ended without a recession. This follows the recessions of 2003, 2004 and 2005, all of which also never occurred, though they were widely warned about in the press and even forecast by many economists at some point during each of [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, The Global Economy | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Political Factor Analysis

Written by Jason Ruspini on November 13, 2006 — Leave a Comment

David Pennock, Lance Fortnow and others on Marginal Revolution and DailyKos explain the “failure” of prediction markets for Senate control as stemming from the assumption that state-level elections are independent events, an assumption that ignores national movements in sentiment. Is there a way to test this idea? If a general anti-Republican/pro-Democrat wave swept [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta) | Also tagged , , , , , ,

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