Tag Archives: legislator

How to run enterprise prediction markets… legally

Posted on June 10, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Private Prediction Markets and the Law – (PDF file) – by Tom W. Bell – 2008-05-18 Abstract This paper analyses the legality of private prediction markets under U.S. law, describing both the legal risks they raise and how to manage … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

The Recessions of 2003, 2004, 2006 & 2006

Posted on February 1, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

From today’s WSJ (subscription required): Meanwhile, back at the economy, you may have noticed that 2006 ended without a recession. This follows the recessions of 2003, 2004 and 2005, all of which also never occurred, though they were widely warned … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, The Global Economy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Political Factor Analysis

Posted on November 13, 2006 by Jason Ruspini

David Pennock, Lance Fortnow and others on Marginal Revolution and DailyKos explain the “failure” of prediction markets for Senate control as stemming from the assumption that state-level elections are independent events, an assumption that ignores national movements in sentiment. Is … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta) | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment