Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: lawyer

The CFTC Deadline . . . Wavers

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts says, “Comments must be received by July 7, 2008.” What deadline does that impose? I played it safe, and assumed that I had to send mine in before midnight, this morning. Today, I learned from Bruce [...]

Will the CFTC agree to license and regulate real-money prediction markets?

I think that it’s a kind of prediction markets whose contract should be designed by a lawyer or law professor.
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Will The CFTC agree to license and regulate real-money Prediction Markets?
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Hubdub – The News Prediction Game

Has BetFair a little part of responsibility in the collapse of the Kieren Fallon trial (which cost British taxpayers £950,000)?

BetFair actively report betting that appears to them out of the ordinary. And, if any sport regulator has concerns, then BetFair provide them with additional information. BetFair, of course, has no say in whether a criminal offense has been committed, and no input into the prosecution (the Crown Prosecution Service).
In the Fallon case (an Irish [...]

If the British legal betting companies offer bets on the sport, it is because there is demand for bets on the sport —and if that demand were not offered in a regulated environment, it would be filled in an unregulated one (like what we see with TradeSports-InTrade and MatchBook in the US market).

Mark Davies of BetFair (PDF file):
International Leaders in Sport conference, Auckland, New Zealand. April 3-4th 2008.
Keynote speech, April 4th. Mark Davies, Betfair.
“New Understandings in Sports Betting”
Minister, ladies and gentlemen… Thank you very much for your kind invitation to speak to you today. I have once before been asked by sport to address it, as a [...]

Multi-millionaire BetFair co-founder Andrew “Bert” Black can’t (and now isn’t allowed to) drive a car.

Andrew Black:
We moved in last Thursday – I couldn’t be there in the morning as I had to go to court to face up to a speeding infringement. It didn’t go well – I picked up four points and lost my licence [driving license] for six months as it took me over 12 points. [...]

Can InTrade traders correct their own biases?

Jed Christiansen talks back to Tyler Cowen:
The biggest problem with people assessing the “success” of most prediction markets is that most people have problems understanding probabilities. If every [favorite] won, the market would actually be pretty inaccurate! Sports bettors understand this, but when it’s applied to other fields journalists and others tend to forget about [...]

NBC News Tim Russert (the host of Meet The Press) would have not expired the Larry Craig contract too early.

“[I]t is my intent to resign from the Senate, effective September 30 [2007]“, said US Senator Larry Craig. (Important note: In that same output, he did not say that he would not seek another term.) Based on this vague statement (“it’s my intent to resign”), InTrade should have not expired the Larry Craig Exit contract. [...]

My understanding was that she wasn’t Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, so I don’t know exactly what experiences she’s claiming.

Barak Obama on Hillary Clinton. Everybody laughed. New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd (in a November column) continues:
Hillary [Clinton] did not show good judgment in her areas of influence — the legal fiefdom, health care and running oppo-campaigns against Bill’s galpals.
“She hasn’t accomplished anything on her own since getting admitted to Yale Law,” wrote Joan [...]

FALLON CASE: BetFair lawyer David O’Reilly is not the man… to say the least.

The Guardian:
[...] In part, the fault is Betfair’s, for failing to ensure that police investigators understood the meaning of the complex evidence they provided, and for passing pages of irrelevant data to the Crown that provided one of many early embarrassments for the prosecution. [...]
The senior detective in charge of the investigation, Mark Manning, had [...]

There are a bunch of bozos at BetFair, in the anti-fraud and legal departments, apparently.

The Guardian Unlimited:
[...] [Acting detective inspector Mark Manning] began his investigation by visiting the offices of Betfair, the company through which the bets involved in the case were made. He was told that Fallon’s fellow defendant Miles Rodgers had risked a total of £2m, but Manning misunderstood and left with the belief that Rodgers had [...]

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