Tag Archives: Larry Craig

The Prime Minister of Ireland has just said he will resign, but neither InTrade nor BetFair would give the first fig.

InTrade do not have any open “Bertie Ahern” prediction markets. InTrade do not have any closed “Bertie Ahern” either. BetFair do have a series of “Bye Bye Bertie” prediction markets —still open at the time of writing. So I deduce … Continue reading

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NBC News Tim Russert (the host of Meet The Press) would have not expired the Larry Craig contract too early.

“[I]t is my intent to resign from the Senate, effective September 30 [2007]“, said US Senator Larry Craig. (Important note: In that same output, he did not say that he would not seek another term.) Based on this vague statement … Continue reading

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The event futures contract on both Bin Laden and Musharraf at InTrade-TradeSports

InTrade-TradeSports: This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if BOTH of the following events occur before 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract: 1. Osama Bin Laden is captured or neutralised 2. President Pervez Musharraf departs as … Continue reading

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Beware before citing the probabilistic predictions given by the prediction markets

Steve Roman: It’s good to see Intrade cited as authoritative but I don’t think the recession contracts have enough liquidity to accurately reflect the odds. Citing a contract price when there is only a small amount of liquidity is one … Continue reading

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InTrade-TradeSports should have expired the Larry Craig event derivative today, on October 4, 2007, and not on September 5, 2007.

InTrade-TradeSports should have expired the Larry Craig event derivative today, on October 4, 2007, and not on September 5, 2007. That’s their main error. Last September, they expired this event derivative on the basis on Larry Craig stating his “intent … Continue reading

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What Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz, Koleman Strumpf, David Pennock and the other economists won’t tell you about the socially valuable prediction markets

— The Big Dichotomy in the Field of Prediction Markets #1. The socially valuable prediction markets are hyped by the economists (whose career in research depends on the willingness of the exchange executives to give them data). #2. Those socially … Continue reading

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How US Senator Larry Craig managed to fool InTrade-TradeSports.

Larry Craig left a voicemail for his lawyer Billy Martin at the wrong number just minutes before his press conference where he announced his “intent to resign“. MP3 file Yes, Billy, this is Larry Craig calling. You can reach me … Continue reading

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Resignation Intent vs. Upcoming Resignation vs. Effective Resignation

— US Senator Larry Craig (on September 1, 2007 – no deep link yet): Senator Craig Announces Intent to Resign from the Senate [...] Therefore it is with sadness and deep regret that I announce that it is my intent … Continue reading

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InTrade expired the Larry Craig prediction market too early.

Scroll down the whole story and judge by yourself, folks. — New York Times: “As he stated on Saturday, Senator Craig intends to resign on Sept. 30,” Mr. [Dan Whiting, a spokesman for Mr. Craig] said in a statement. “However, … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments