Midas Oracle .ORG » Labour Party

Justin Wolfers Country has turned Left… as predicted by the prediction markets.

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 27 Nov 2007 14:57:29 +0000

The Washington Post on Australia‘s November 2007 political elections.

The prediction market charts below were taken a bit before the close of the Australian polling stations, last Saturday.

BetFair (on Australia’s Labor Party, which ended winning):

BetFair had a complete set of Australian political election prediction markets:

InTrade-TradeSports:

Prediction Markets on the 2007 Australian Federal Election

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 14 Sep 2007 12:59:14 +0000

Google has opened a new webspot for the 2007 Australian Federal Election. Bo Cowgill should tell them to add prediction markets to their website.

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Labor Party

Static Chart:

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Labor Party

Dynamic Chart:

Static Chart:

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No Australian election prediction markets at NewsFutures…

Will the Scottish People choose Independence??

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 03 May 2007 08:23:41 +0000

BetFair prediction markets on the Scotland elections taking place this Thursday, May 3, 2007. (For your information, InTrade-TradeSports has no liquidity on the Scotland prediction markets. Also, note that there is also an election in Wales, but the betting markets don’t give the first fig about it.)

- This early morning, the BetFair prediction markets are “suspended”. I don’t know why. Niall O’Connor??? [Oops. He tells me the prediction markets are open, now. It was a temporary closure, then. ]

- The Scottish National Party (SNP), supported by actor Sean Connery, is for the “independence” (from the British Parliament). And the Labour Party (of Tony Blair) is for the status quo.

- The Scottish National Party (SNP): 82%

Here are the latest polls, courtesy of Mike Smithson at Political Betting:

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Previous: Will Scotland become independent?? – (including Sean Connery’s speech in favor of Independence.)

The Labour Party to be the Australian Govt after 2007 General Election

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 16 Mar 2007 18:04:54 +0000

Is the Gordon Brown prediction market being manipulated at BetFair?

Chris F. Masse — Thu, 05 Oct 2006 16:45:23 +0000

Political blogger Mike Smithson (ex-BBC News) thinks that it has been the case lately.

His criteria: Number one, when the Gordon Brown contract price becomes cheaper, other contracts (for the Labor party leadership) don’t get a boost. Number two, the price changes while no political news would affect the contract. Number three, each time its price raises after a normal transaction, there’s a speculative attack that make price falls.

I leave it there. Re-reading Koleman Strumpf latest paper (PDF), I spotted his definition of manipulation:

For the purpose of this study, fundamentals are any information that influences the underlying value of the contract. A speculative attack is defined any trade, uninformed by fundamentals, intended to change prices. A (successful) manipulation is a speculative attack that achieves its objective of changing prices. (A successful manipulation is usually not possible unless the trades influence the beliefs of other market participants. An investorâ€™s beliefs are defined with respect to the fundamentals, as well as the future actions and beliefs of other investors.)

For your information, professor Koleman Strumpf will be a post author on this blog. He’s now with the Kansas University, and told me that he will be very busy in the next months, but will happily contribute after that.