Tag Archives: Kos

Polls-Based Forecasting Vs. Prediction Markets

Posted on December 14, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Via AskMarkets‘ George Tziralis, The Daily Kos:

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Robin Hanson’s concept of decision markets applied to Midas Oracle management

Posted on August 14, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Daniel Reeves on the scenario of a Midas Oracle convention: [...] The survey should be about how to measure the success of Midas Oracle (”vote on values”). Ie, as social scientists say, we operationalize “success”. Then have two conditional prediction … Continue reading →

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RE: Alleged manipulation of the Hillary Clinton event derivative at InTrade-TradeSports

Posted on August 4, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Does a rich trader, highly partisan and highly convinced that Hillary will make it, care about the price? If he/she has persuaded himself/herself that the expiry will bring $100, then buying the Hillary Clinton event derivative at $40 will yield … Continue reading →

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Leftist bloggers’s backlash at the prediction markets – Election Day 2006 + 2

Posted on November 9, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

Yesterday, Barry Ritholtz (to whom I responded on this blog). Today, Markos Moulitsas Zúniga of the “Daily Kos”.

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