Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Keynesian beauty contest

What makes people comment like crazy on Midas Oracle? –> ANSWER –> Suspense, Suspense –> John Maynard Keynes

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 25, 2009 — Leave a Comment

As noticed by our good Doctor Professor Michael Giberson (of Knowledge Problem fame):

The appropriateness of the “prediction market” label to an information aggregation mechanism — 39 comments
The best way to rank the best ideas coming from the rank — 11 comments and going

And both discussions feature the “Keynesian beauty contest“ argument. The argument is frown [...]

Posted in Midas Oracle Archives

Deep Throat’s take of Emile’s take of the SAVE AWARD program

Written by Guest Author on September 24, 2009 — 2 Comments

Emile’s idea is a half-beauty contest, but if Emile thinks the OMB officials have expertise that won’t be swayed by the crowd, then the original SAVE AWARD process was half-good as well.
The officials would be able to count the number of similar suggestions and in that way they would approximate aggregation. It’s just not as [...]

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds | Also tagged , , , , ,

Can a Keynesian beauty contest improve Pres. Obama’s suggestion box for U.S government employees?

Written by Michael Giberson on September 24, 2009 — 18 Comments

President Barack Obama has created the “SAVE Award,” a process by which U.S. government employees can submit ideas for “how their agency can save money and perform better.” A committee of senior officials from the Office of Management and Budget at the White House will review the submissions and submit a short list to the [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Politics | Also tagged , , , , ,

Barack Obama and the wisdom of the Federal crowd

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 23, 2009 — Leave a Comment

“There is no aggregation of the collective wisdom. The crowd is called on only to submit ideas, not to help evaluate them, which is the critical step in the delicate wisdom of crowd recipe.”

Posted in Collective Decision Making, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Politics | Also tagged , , , , ,

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