Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.)

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• Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Bernd H. Ankenbrand – Bernd Ankenbrand – (Lecturer, Witten/Herdecke University, Germany, E.U.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• James Annan – (Global Environment Modelling Research Program, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan)
• Werner Antweiler – (UBC Election Stock Market, Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada)
• Kenneth J. Arrow – Kenneth Arrow – (Economics Department, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.)
• Tom W. Bell – Tom Bell – (Law School, Chapman University, California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Joyce E. Berg – Joyce Berg – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Accounting, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Richard Borghesi – (Finance, Texas State University at San Marcos, Texas, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Kay-Yut Chen – (Information Services & Process Innovation Lab, HP Labs, HP, California, U.S.A.)
• Yiling Chen – (Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Yahoo! Research Labs, New York, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Eric Crampton – (Department of Economics, University of Canterbury, New Zealand) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Ely Dahan – (Marketing, Anderson School, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, U.S.A.)
• Anita Elberse – (Marketing, Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Massachusetts, U.S.A.)
• Leslie R. Fine – Leslie Fine – (Information Dynamics Lab, HP Labs, California, U.S.A.)
• Gary William Flake – Gary W. Flake – Gary Flake – (MicroSoft, U.S.A.)
• Robert Forsythe – (Dean, College of Business Administration, University of South Florida, Florida, U.S.A.) — Previously: (Economics, Iowa Electronic Markets, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Lance Fortnow – Lance J. Fortnow – (Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, McCormick School of Engineering, Northwestern University, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Keith Jacks Gamble – Keith Gamble – (Economics (University of California at Berkeley) – California, U.S.A. — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Michael Gorham – (IIT Center for Financial Markets, Stuart School of Business, Illinois Institute of Technology, Illinois, U.S.A.) — Previously: (CFTC)
• Thomas S. Gruca – Thomas Gruca – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Marketing, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Refet Gurkaynak – (Department of Economics, Bilkent University, Turkey)
• Friedrich August Von Hayek — R.I.P. — The market as an information aggregation tool: The Use of Knowledge in Society —
• Robert W. Hahn – Robert Hahn – (Executive Director, Reg-Markets Center, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• James D. Hamilton – James Hamilton – (Department of Economics, University of California at San Diego – California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Robin Hanson – Robin D. Hanson – (Economics, James M. Buchanan Center, George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• M. Todd Henderson – (Law School, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Chris Hibbert – (Software Architect, Zocalo Project Manager, California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Charles Holt – Charles A. Holt – (Department of Economics, University of Virginia, Virginia, U.S.A.)
• Bernardo A. Huberman – Bernardo Huberman – (Social Computing Lab, HP Labs, California, U.S.A.)
• Frédéric Koessler – (Economics, Centre Nationale de la Recherche Scientifique, France, E.U.)
• Anthony M. Kwasnica – Anthony Kwasnica – (Business Economics, Department of Insurance and Real Estate, Smeal College of Business Administration, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)
• Nicolas Lambert – (Department of Computer Science, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.)
• John O. Ledyard – John Ledyard – (Economics and and Social Sciences, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, California, U.S.A.)
• Andrew Leigh – (Economics, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Australia)
• Steven Levitt – Steve Levitt – Steven D. Levitt – (Economics, Director of the Becker Center on Chicago Price Theory, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Saul Levmore – (Law School, University of Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Robert E. Litan – Robert Litan – (Vice President for Research and Policy, Kauffman Foundation, Kansas City, Missouri, U.S.A.)
• Thomas W. Malone – Thomas Malone – Tom Malone – (MIT Center for Collective Intelligence, Management, MIT Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Massachusetts, U.S.A.)
• Charles F. Manski – Charles Manski – (College of Arts and Sciences, Norwestern University, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• Adam Meirowitz – (Department of Politics, Princeton University, New Jersey, U.S.A.)
• Paul Milgrom – (Department of Economics, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.)
• Tracy Mullen – (Information Sciences and Technology, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.)
• Forrest Nelson – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Economics, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• George R. Neumann – George Neumann – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Economics, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Ryan Oprea – Profile – (Director of the LEEPS laboratory, Economics, University of California at Santa Cruz, California, U.S.A.)
• Gerhard Ortner – (University of Applied Sciences, Austria, E.U.)
• Marco Ottaviani – (Management and Strategy, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Illinois, U.S.A.) – Formerly: (Economics Department, London Business School, United Kingdom, E.U.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• David Paton – (Industrial Economics, Business School, Nottingham University, United Kingdom, E.U.)
• David M. Pennock – David Pennock – (Principal Research Scientist, Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Yahoo! Research Labs, New York, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Charles R. Plott – Charles Plott – (Economics and and Social Sciences, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, California, U.S.A.)
• David Porter – (Economics and Finance, Chapman University, California, U.S.A.)
• Todd Proebsting – Todd A. Proebsting – (Microsoft & University of Arizona, U.S.A.)
• Russ Ray – (Finance, College of Business, University of Louisville, Kentucky, U.S.A.)
• Daniel Reeves – (Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Yahoo! Research Labs, New York, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Paul W. Rhode – Paul Rhode – (US Economic History, College of Management, The University of Arizona, Arizona, U.S.A.) – Formerly: (University of North Carolina, North Carolina, U.S.A.)
• Thomas A. Rietz – Thomas Rietz – Profile – (Iowa Electronic Markets, Finance, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
• Richard Roll – (University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, U.S.A.)
• Thomas W. Ross – Thomas Ross – (UBC Election Stock Market, Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada)
• Rahul Sami – (School of Information, University of Michigan, Michigan, U.S.A.)
• Sam L. Savage – Sam Savage – (Consulting Professor, Stanford U., California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Thomas C. Schelling – Thomas Schelling – (Economics, School of Public Affair, University of Maryland, Maryland, U.S.A.)
• Emile Servan-Schreiber – (NewsFutures, New York City, New York, U.S.A. & Paris, France, E.U.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Robert J. Shiller – Robert Shiller – Profile – (Economics, Yale University, Connecticut, U.S.A.)
• Bernd Skiera – (Electronic Commerce, Goethe University, Germany, E.U.)
• Vernon L. Smith – Vernon Smith – (Economics, Economic Science Institute, Chapman University, California, U.S.A.)
• Erik Snowberg – (Stanford University, California, U.S.A.) — Soon at CalTech
• Peter Norman Sorensen – (Finance, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark, E.U.)
• Martin Spann – (Marketing and Innovation, University of Passau, Germany, E.U.)
• Koleman Strumpf – Koleman S. Strumpf – (Economics, School of Business, University of Kansas, Kansas, U.S.A.) – Formerly: University of North Carolina, North Carolina, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Cass Sunstein – Cass R. Sunstein – (Law School, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)
• James Surowiecki – (The Wisdom Of Crowds) – (New York, U.S.A.)
• Paul C. Tetlock – Paul Tetlock – (Finance, Business School, University of Texas at Austin, Texas, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Philip Tetlock – Philip E. Tetlock – (Leadership, University of California at Berkeley, California, U.S.A.)
• Hal R. Varian – Hal Varian – (Chief Economist, Google, California, U.S.A.) — Formerly: (Haas School of Business, Department of Economics, University of California at Berkeley, California, U.S.A.)
• Dorina Tila – (Economics, George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.)
• Leighton Vaughan-Williams – (Economics and Finance, Business School, Nottingham Trent University, United Kingdom, E.U.)
• Michael Wellman – Michael P. Wellman – (Computer Science and Engineering, University of Michigan, Michigan, U.S.A.)
• Justin Wolfers – Justin J. Wolfers – (Business and Public Policy, Wharton Business School, University of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
• Eric Zitzewitz – Eric W. Zitzewitz – (Economics, Dartmouth College, Massachusetts, USA) – Formerly: (Stanford University, California, U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

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Academic papers and the other serious thoughts can be posted via a blogging software, too. To say that the blog technology should be used only for light writings is totally absurd. The blogging software (like WordPress, TypePad or MovableType) are a superior technology because they fit well within the Web system (they are natively compatible with the search engines and they allow interactions). Why not using this superior technology to publish the serious writings, too?

UPDATE: See Keith Jacks Gamble’s comment, just below.

Keith Jacks Gamble

After observing a few months of trading on the simExchange, the NPC market makers have been tweaked to provide more consistent liquidity across stocks and smaller price differences between their orders. The effect of these changes should result in more activity in higher priced stocks, such as console stocks. Percent price changes will not be so erratic. Prices should no longer jump between down 3% for the day to up 2% of the day. Prices should change more frequently but in smaller magnitude at a time. [...]

Ah.

Previous: The Sim Exchange: Stocks vs. Stock Derivatives (Futures & Options) + Keith Jacks Gamble: simExchange is somewhat OK, but will remained confined in play-money land. + Brian Shiau: The Sim Exchange Works Fine, Thanks. + Robin Hanson on the Sim Exchage + simExchange a Keynesian Beauty Contest + The structure of simExchange game stocks + An invitation to join the simExchange beta + Since November 9, 2006, the Sim Exchange has attracted over 2,400 registered players. + Sim Exchange – How to earn additional money? + The Sim Exchange: Basic Trading vs. Advanced Trading + BetFair, Sim Exchange = Vertical Prediction Exchanges, First

Brian Shiau:

[...] I also believe gamers think of game sales in terms of lifetime sales. People remember that Halo 2 sold over 7 million copies. They don’t remember how many copies it sold between months 2 and 4 of release. They are thinking Halo 3 as an 8 million copy seller, not a 3 million copy seller between weeks 3-6 of release.

[...] Once a game nears the end of the lifespan and the total global sales has been predicted to a certain degree of accuracy, there is no longer a need to continue trading it. When the lifetime sales of a game is fully priced into a stock, players will cash out and turn their attention to new games in the same way growth investors cash out of mature companies by selling their shares.

[...] I believed it is more clarifying for players to understand that they can buy and sell at certain prices and quantities because another player is offering that to them. [...]

#2. THE SIM EXCHANGE: Stocks vs. Stock Derivatives (Futures & Options)

Brian Shiau:

[...] This is part of the reason stocks on the simExchange are called “stocks.” When we launch a derivatives market for options and futures, we will call them “options” and “futures.” Probably a rumor slightly overshadowed by the black Xbox 360 Elite, but yes a derivatives market on the simExchange is coming. Remember: stocks do not expire and cash out on a regularly scheduled basis. Futures and option contracts do.

[...] Short selling is borrowing stock and selling it, hoping to buy it back at a cheaper price later and pocketing the difference. [...] Short selling is different from buying a put option or writing a call option—these concepts should not be confused and we would not be doing players any favors by mixing them up. [...]

Previous: Keith Jacks Gamble: simExchange is somewhat OK, but will remained confined in play-money land. + Brian Shiau: The Sim Exchange Works Fine, Thanks. + Robin Hanson on the Sim Exchage + simExchange a Keynesian Beauty Contest + The structure of simExchange game stocks + An invitation to join the simExchange beta + Since November 9, 2006, the Sim Exchange has attracted over 2,400 registered players. + Sim Exchange – How to earn additional money? + The Sim Exchange: Basic Trading vs. Advanced Trading + BetFair, Sim Exchange = Vertical Prediction Exchanges, First

2. Ever wonder what the rest of the world really thinks about the games you already pre-ordered five months ago?
The simExchange lets you observe an aggregated forecast for how many copies a game will sell globally. Experts explain that market-driven systems can aggregate information from thousands of people, resulting in a better forecast than from any single analyst.
3. Want to find the games that are really worth your time to read more about?
The simExchange enables you to find new video games through the “wisdom of crowds.” By aggregating the opinions of thousands of gamers, the simExchange saves you time in identifying the most anticipated games simply by checking out the stock price or trading activity for a game.

Previous: Keith Jacks Gamble: simExchange is somewhat OK, but will remained confined in play-money land. + Brian Shiau: The Sim Exchange Works Fine, Thanks. + Robin Hanson on the Sim Exchage + simExchange a Keynesian Beauty Contest + The structure of simExchange game stocks + An invitation to join the simExchange beta + Since November 9, 2006, the Sim Exchange has attracted over 2,400 registered players. + Sim Exchange – How to earn additional money? + The Sim Exchange: Basic Trading vs. Advanced Trading + BetFair, Sim Exchange = Vertical Prediction Exchanges, First

Thanks for the response. It’s interesting to see examples of product news stories and how your markets responded. These examples suggest that your game share prices are connected with sales. I’m not surprised and Keynes wouldn’t be either. His beauty contest view explains exactly why prices on the simExchange are connected to sales despite the fact that game shares have no intrinsic connection to sales (no dividends based on sales, nor the possibility to liquidate based on actual sales). The traders’ comments you mentioned confirm that traders have picked up on this point and are buying and selling in anticipation of other traders’ actions. Certainly, a lot of trading on Wall Street works the same way.

My point that game shares have no intrinsic value, unlike Wall Street shares, has two implications. First, it’s one reason that prices on the simExchange may deviate more from actual sales than prices on Wall Street exchanges deviate from actual value. Importantly, this statement doesn’t say that simExchanges prices will deviate more, nor does it say that any deviation will be large. Further, your simExchange has at least one advantage for keeping prices near sales that Wall Street does not have: your market makers have infinite resources to keep prices at reasonable levels. Second, although irrelevant since the simExchange uses play money, the fact that game shares have no intrinsic value prevents the simExchange from ever working with real money.

Previous: Brian Shiau: The Sim Exchange Works Fine, Thanks.

Previous: Robin Hanson on the Sim Exchage + simExchange a Keynesian Beauty Contest – by Keith Jacks Gamble

Previous: The structure of simExchange game stocks

Previous: An invitation to join the simExchange beta + Since November 9, 2006, the Sim Exchange has attracted over 2,400 registered players. + Sim Exchange – How to earn additional money? + The Sim Exchange: Basic Trading vs. Advanced Trading + BetFair, Sim Exchange = Vertical Prediction Exchanges, First

Conditional and Combinatorial Betting – by Chris Hibbert

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If I had to bet which of the two blog posts will have a better success with the Google Search users, I’d say Chris Hibbert’s one. It is longer, and the main keywords are repeated more often.

If I had to publicize a paper, I would write a blog post like Justin Wolfers did yesterday evening, and in the second part of it, I would stuff it with the “digestible” summary. That way, I would have a longer text, with more important keywords repeated in the body text (“Economic Derivatives”, “prediction markets”). It would also tempt some bloggers to link to it, which would be good for the PageRank of that webpage.

Previous: Keith Jacks Gamble has not fully milked out the Marginal Revolution cow.

It is a valid criticism, since fundamental analysis is essentially impossible until sales data by NPD Funworld is released (Shiau has some nice empirical results relating to prices ex-ante and ex-post sales figures, and the resulting market corrections…scroll down until you see the charts). However, this is largely a short-term problem and I suspect will disappear in subsequent weeks. With more companies offering demos of games as downloadable content, market participants have access to better information. This reduces the amount of “noise” created by previews and reviews by the gaming media, since 1) the quality of the reviewer varies and 2) most of their work covers unfinished builds of games, which may be materially different from what is released to the market.

Previous: Brian Shiau: The Sim Exchange Works Fine, Thanks.

Previous: Robin Hanson on the Sim Exchage + simExchange a Keynesian Beauty Contest – by Keith Jacks Gamble

Previous: The structure of simExchange game stocks

Previous: An invitation to join the simExchange beta + Since November 9, 2006, the Sim Exchange has attracted over 2,400 registered players. + Sim Exchange – How to earn additional money? + The Sim Exchange: Basic Trading vs. Advanced Trading + BetFair, Sim Exchange = Vertical Prediction Exchanges, First

[...] Many players realized early on that share prices on the simExchange are completely based on what other people are willing to pay: [...]

[...] Empirical evidence of trading on the simExchange has demonstrated at least some [market] efficiency. [...]

Players who did not trade in the direction implied by the news lost DKP while those who did gained DKP. As predicted by market theory, eventually, these players learn to trade with sales figures or they run out of money. However, like the real stock market, the simExchange is not immune to bubbles. If people become irrationally exuberant for a game, the stock may be priced very high. This is all part of simulating a stock market.

Additionally, as in any game, the admins can wield the awesome power of Non-Player Characters (NPC), in this case market makers with infinite money, that can encourage players back to rational trading.

Previous: Robin Hanson on the Sim Exchage + simExchange a Keynesian Beauty Contest – by Keith Jacks Gamble

Previous: The structure of simExchange game stocks

Previous: An invitation to join the simExchange beta + Since November 9, 2006, the Sim Exchange has attracted over 2,400 registered players. + Sim Exchange – How to earn additional money? + The Sim Exchange: Basic Trading vs. Advanced Trading + BetFair, Sim Exchange = Vertical Prediction Exchanges, First