Tag Archives: Karl Rove

Once again, resignation prediction markets failed to the task.

Posted on August 27, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

US Attorney General Alberto Gonzales resigns. More. (Good riddance, by the way.) Doug Mills / The New York Times — Once again, Chris Masse was right on the money: [...] Just like the Olympic City prediction markets, the resignation prediction … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Jed Christiansen strongly believes that Chris Masse has a bad understanding of probabilities.

Posted on August 14, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

And he could be right. The only way to evaluate accuracy of predictions is with a sufficient group or series of predictions. I don’t disagree with that. My previous blog post on the Karl Rove prediction market simply stated that: … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , | 3 Comments

Does this prediction market chart look predictive to you?

Posted on August 13, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Karl Rove will resign from the White House. Emile Servan-Schreiber: Chris, how exactly do you define “predictive”? If your criterion is “last trading price above 50%”, that would betray a very limited understanding of the nature of both probability and … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Karl Rove resigns abruptly.

Posted on August 13, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Makes him look like he is guilty of something, then. Wall Street Journal + Portrait-Interview – The WSJ coverage of his resignation seems biased to me. New York Times + NYT Editorial I haven’t seen any Karl Rove prediction market … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment