Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Kansas City

The best researchers on prediction markets

CFM: Scholars
Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.)
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Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Bernd H. Ankenbrand – Bernd Ankenbrand – (Lecturer, Witten/Herdecke [...]

Slides of presentations from Conference on Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets (1 November), Kansas City

The speakers’ presentations are now available in pdf format on the conference webpage,
http://people.ku.edu/~cigar/PMConf_2007.
I intend to keep this page in place, so feel free to bookmark it and use it as a resource.

Summary of Conference on Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets (1 November), Kansas City

A summary of the talks at last week’s conferences is available here,
http://people.ku.edu/~cigar/PMConf_2007/PMConference_Notes.html.
Additional information will be posted in the near future.

Presentation of Private Prediction Markets’ Legality Under U.S. Law

Koleman Strumpf has tapped me to discuss the legality of in-house prediction markets, tomorrow, at the Conference on Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets, at the Kauffman Foundation Conference Center, in lovely Kansas City, MO. I call my presentation, Private Prediction Markets’ Legality Under U.S. Law. It discusses the legal hurdles faced by in-house [...]

Reminder: Corporate Applications of Prediction Markets Conference (1 November)

The conference will be held next Thursday (1 November) at the Kauffman Foundation in Kansas City. All of the details are available on the conference webpage (http://people.ku.edu/~cigar/PMConf_2007) and the schedule is listed below.
I am pleased to note that Mat Fogarty (Founder and CEO, Xpree) and Alexander Costakis (Managing Director, HSX) have been added to [...]

If there is one event to attend in 2007, the Koleman Strumpf conference on prediction markets is the one.

I’ve been thinking a bit about the different upcoming conferences on prediction markets, and it seems to me that the Koleman Strumpf conference stands out of the pack, because of its format. It casts, in a series of 4 successive panels, one company manager against one scholar (called here “discussant”). That is a great idea. [...]

Upcoming Events


Consensus Point’s conference on prediction markets – @ New York City, New York, U.S.A. – 2007-09-24
What Have We Learned from Market Design? – @ Yahoo! Research Silicon Valley, Santa Clara, California, U.S.A. – 2007-10-15
Koleman Strumpf’s conference on prediction markets – @ Kansas City, Kansas, U.S.A. – 2007-11-01
Money Tech conference = Technology and Money, Asset Management [...]

BetFair accurately predicted the direction of the interest rate change, but was too shy in its prediction of the amplitude of the interest rate change.

BetFair predicted: -0,25
The Fed decided: -0.50
That’s for the absolute accuracy. Now, what counts is the relative accuracy —the comparison between the prediction made by BetFair and the predictions made by the financial markets experts. I see that the rate cut of 50bp has come up as a big surprise to the Wall [...]

BetFair predicts: US Federal Funds Rate = 5%

What will be the change in US Federal Funds Rate at this month’s scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting?
FOMC – September FOMC
Current Rate 5.25% .
- 0.25

UPDATE: BetFair accurately predicted the direction of the interest rate change, but was too shy in its prediction of the amplitude of the interest rate change.
BetFair predicted: -0,25
The [...]

Here’s your host. – Kansas City conference on prediction markets – November 1, 2007

Koleman Strumpf, the host of the Kansas City conference on prediction markets – November 1, 2007

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