On InTrade: All the economists blogging about their prediction markets never mentioned the numerous disputes about the non-sport contracts (North Korean Missile, Closure of Gitmo, Departure of Hosni Mubarak, US Debt Ceiling, etc. etc. etc. etc.).

On John Delaney’s death: He did something very risky (climbing the top of the mount Everest) for his own pleasure, and he left a widow and a bunch of orphans. According to one InTrade trader, his personality raised red flags in the past.

Disclosure: I am not an investor in prediction market companies, contrary to some lauding commentors under the David Pennock post.

Out of curiosity for SEO, here are some key stats about our coverage of the InTrade CEO‘s horrific death. Note that these stats don’t encompass the frontpage readers and the feed subscribers (so, we would add many hundreds more, actually). And that only one webpage (out of the many we wrote on the topic) is counted.

- New York Times & CNBC.

- InTrade co-founder Patrick Young (privately to me) & InTrade investor Dean LeBaron (who quotes Patrick Young).

- Tyler Cowen. Max Keiser. Justin Wolfers. Caveat Bettor. Robin Hanson.

- Here’s InTrade trader Sacha Peter on John Delaney’s personality. And here are all the negative remarks by the blog commenters on various outlets.

UPDATE: John Delaney’s widow is quoted here.

Not a word on how come a CEO can afford to take months off, and how come a father of three can afford to play with his life at a kind of Russian roulette that strikes 10 or 20% of the times. UPDATE: His widow speaks out.

More.

- George Loewenstein has extensively written about the motivation of mountain climbers and their appreciation of risk.

- Can you spot the discrepancy here?

He was a generous, loving guy – the family came first for him. He adored his two children, and he spent as much time as he could with them. It’s just a shame he’s not going to get to meet the third. [...]

John was a passionate adventurer that loved challenge and mountains.

- The summit of Mount Everest is in the ‘death zone‘.

- The dark side of mountain climbing. – [WARNING: HORRIFIC PICTURES.]

- ChE @ Marginal Revolution:

pulmonary or cerebral edema (HAPE or HACE) [] are two of the most common killers on Everest.”

- Paul Deba @ Business Insider:

The child will grow up without a father because ” he financially committed to the trip” which has a 10-20% of mortality. That’s not a commitment, a child is a commitment, a child that doesn’t have to wonder why their father chose a risky, low reward stunt rather than getting to know them and bring them up for the next 18 years.

- Jim @ Freakonomics:

I can’t possibly imagine leaving my wife to attempt one of the most dangerous feats on earth as she is ready to give birth. Even more obvious with a 2- and 3-year old at home.

I did run the Big Sur Marathon across the country with my wife 8 months pregnant with our first child. But my cellphone was at hand at all times and I was ready to head home on the next plane if necessary. I can’t imagine being both out of communication range and around the world at such a momentous occasion.

- Henning @ Hacker News:

I think it’s irresponsible to attempt something so dangerous when you have a company and a family depending on you.

- Dave J. @ Gawker:

It was not simply selfish to miss the birth of his daughter, but selfish to miss it in order to do something that was (a) really dangerous, and (b) not pressing. I mean, it’s not like you can climb Everest once every 30 years or something. He could have waited a couple months, or a year. He also saddled his wife with a lifetime of guilt–I’m sure she’ll be agonizing over how she could have kept him from going if she had really tried. Selfish, selfish, selfish.

- Bill @ Carpe Diem:

I am very sorry to hear of his death but it was incredibly irresponsible of him to take such grave and foolish risks while having a wife and very young children.

UPDATE: John Delaney’s widow is quoted here.

Previously: InTrade CEO John Delaney (42) died on May 21, 2011, while climbing Mount Everest, and his body will remain there. — [OBITUARY]

UPDATE: Robin Hanson on the mountain climbing death issue.

ADDENDUM:

John Delaney, 41, from Ireland, has collapsed less than 50m from the top. He left for the expedition on April 9 and was due back in Ireland at the end of this month. His body will remain where he died.

InTrade’s other co-founder Patrick Young was the first, at time of publication, to express his condolences.

UPDATE: Tyler Cowen. Max Keiser. Justin Wolfers. Caveat Bettor. Dean LeBaron (who quotes Patrick Young). Robin Hanson.

UPDATE: John Delaney’s widow is quoted here.

NEXT: Psychologist and economist George Loewenstein, Carnegie Mellon University, was an avid mountain climber “until I had kids and couldn’t tolerate the risk.” — [TAKEAWAYS]

NEXT: John Delaney’s OB — [RANT]

Not to put too much faith into the unscientific Gartner hype cycle, but it does feel like a time of backlash responding to some early over optimism. As cooler heads prevail, and the technology speaks for itself, I think we’ll start to see some solid success stories.

The industry failed because its aficionados (Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers and James Surowiecki) oversold the benefits of the prediction markets. Overselling didn’t work in the past, and won’t work in the future. It’s time for Dave to wake up.