Tag Archives: John De Palma

Europe’s foremost betting industry analyst gets a beating from The Wisdom Of Crowds’ James Surowiecki and John De Palma.

Posted on April 24, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

James Surowiecki comments on Niall O’Connor’s assertion… O’Connor’s formulation is exactly wrong. The crowd of bettors at the racetrack is not predicting which horse will win. It’s predicting the odds of each horse in the race winning — in other … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds | Tagged , , , , , | 3 Comments

Within a horse race betting market, the favourite only obliges 33% of the time.

Posted on April 23, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

“So, 67% of the time the crowd’s predicted outcome does not occur”, remarks Niall O’Connor, in an e-mail to me. My reply: “Are horse race experts’ predictions more accurate?” UPDATE: James Surowiecki comments… O’Connor’s formulation is exactly wrong. The crowd … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Black Swan & Predicting World War I

Posted on April 23, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

The inspired John De Palma writes to me: With the TradeSports Saddam contracts, Justin Wolfers had it relatively easy in inferring the extent to which an anticipated war was built into financial market pricing. (Paper – PDF file). A similar … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Economics | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Irak WMDs prediction markets

Posted on April 22, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

The interesting John De Palma writes to me: In response to the comment you made beneath your Iraq War blog entry… Wolfers/Zitzewitz wrote: “… the public information on the probability of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq appears to have … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, History, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Before making a decision, I DOUBT. After making the decision, I’M THE KING OF THE WORLD.

Posted on April 22, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

The unobtrusive John De Palma writes to me: Your post on Predicting World Cup Results reminds me of this study referenced in Robert Cialdini’s Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion: A study by a pair of Canadian psychologists uncovered something fascinating … Continue reading →

Posted in Betting, Economics, Psychology | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

BETTORS need OddsChecker.com. But do TRADERS/SPECULATORS need it??

Posted on April 14, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Great, great, great site. Odds Checker – They have deep links on every bookmaker betting line or prediction market. For instance, click on politics, and select your country. All deep links are shown in the link bar of your browser, … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Market Calls), Analysis (Meta), Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Resources - References | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment