Tag Archives: Japan

InTrade was not able to predict anything regarding the Fukushima nuclear energy plant. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

Contra to Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers and James Surowiecki (who all have exaggerated the usefulness of the prediction markets), collective forecasting is not a tool we can rely on for just anything. As I wrote in the past, we need … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Areva’s analysis on Fukushima — [SLIDES]

http://www.scribd.com/doc/51665683/Le-document-d-Areva-sur-Fukushima

Posted in Inventions & Innovations, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Japanese nuclear disaster and Japanese press coverage — [TRUTH SOCIOLOGY]

In response to Marginal Revolution. Here’s a French journalist covering the events in Japan. My translation. I got rapidly aware that information is blocked. It is not possible to assist to press conferences or to get accredited. And our Japanese … Continue reading

Posted in Journalism, News, Philosophy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The IAEA to upgrade Fukushima to a Level 6 accident before midnight ET 31 Mar 2011 — [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]

Right-click the chart to get the latest probabilities: NHK WORLD TV live on USTREAM. PREVIOUSLY: The Japanese professor who predicted the nuclear disaster — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM] NEXT: InTrade was not able to predict anything regarding the Fukushima nuclear energy plant. … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Charting System, Market Genesis, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Japanese professor who predicted the nuclear disaster — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

Ishibashi Katsuhiko: I had warned that a major earthquake would strike the Chuetsu region around Kashiwazaki, Niigata Prefecture, and about the fundamental vulnerability of nuclear power plants. The 6.8 magnitude temblor of July 16 caused considerable damage to the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Inventions & Innovations, News, Prediction Post-Mortem, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The IAEA to upgrade Fukushima to a Level 5 accident before midnight ET 31 Mar 2011 — [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]

UPDATE: Upgrade to Level 6, here. Next: The Japanese professor who predicted the nuclear disaster — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM] NEXT: InTrade was not able to predict anything regarding the Fukushima nuclear energy plant. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Watch the English-speaking NHK for the latest on the Japanese nuclear disaster. — [VIDEO]

NHK WORLD TV live on USTREAM.

Posted in News | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Idiots believe in earthquake prediction markets. — [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]

That’s how you spot them: They would believe in anything. [*] There can’t be any usefulness in earthquake prediction markets since science does not give us any leading indicators. (Assessing the risk of a nuclear plant melting is another issue.) … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

NewsFutures’ hyper marketese on their prediction market consultancy and software package for enterprise prediction markets

NewsFutures: Top-10 reasons why NewsFutures is the ideal partner to harness the wisdom of your crowd 1.) Integrated Solutions We offer complete solutions, not just great software. This approach delivers a much higher success rate and enables the client organization … Continue reading

Posted in Consulting, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Software | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

The best researchers on prediction markets

CFM: Scholars Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.) – Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington … Continue reading

Posted in People, Resources - References | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment