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Tag Archives: James Hamilton
Recession probability index rises to 16.9%
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2007, moving our recession probability index up to 16.9%. This post provides some background on how that … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, The Global Economy
Tagged Bureau of Economic Analysis, California, Emporia Telecom Isoetec IDS, James Hamilton, Marcelle Chauvet, National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, probability law, Professor, professor of economics, San Diego, t - 1, The Bureau of Economic Analysis, United States, University of California
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Forecasters See Higher Growth, Stronger Labor Market in 2007.
The Society of Professional Forecasters’ latest survey: PDF The Growth Outlook – by Menzie Chinn Note: Menzie Chinn is James Hamilton’s co-blogger at EconBrowser.
Posted in The Global Economy
Tagged James Hamilton, Society of Professional Forecasters
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Contract on US Economy going into Recession – REDUX
Last time, when I said that there was a problem with the TradeSports chart, nobody believed me and Caveat Bettor treated me like a decerebrated idiot. See the problem??? The TradeSports chart spans on one day, only. Let’s try again … Continue reading