Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Islamic Republic of Iran

INTRADE TRADERS, BEWARE. — Primary indicators from Iran might not be reliable: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad doctors pictures using PhotoShop.

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 10, 2008 — Leave a Comment

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UPDATE:

Posted in Leading & Lagging Indicators, Politics | Also tagged , ,

What I mean by “advanced” and “retarded”

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 7, 2008 — Leave a Comment

- An event is “advanced” when it is before the others on the timeline.
- An event is “retarded” when it is after the others on the timeline.
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- I use the term “advanced, primary indicator” to talk about the leading sources of information that active traders rely on.
- Last time, in the title, I said that [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Market Calls), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Miscellaneous, Psychology, Science | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

My response to the CFTC on event contracts

Written by Jason Ruspini on July 5, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Here is my response to the CFTC’s “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” I appreciate this opportunity to help in working towards regulated prediction markets in the US, and I thank the Commissioners for it.
Given the political implications of the rise in commodity prices, this is not the best environment in [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Politics, Regulations | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

How to make a MILLION POUNDS on the rotting corpse of David Davis’s political career (to be used for ethical purposes only)

Written by Guest Author on July 3, 2008 — 20 Comments

1). For the form guide in this two-horse race, please see:
a). THE PRESENT (SHAN OAKES, GREEN):
http://shanoakes.blogspot.com
http://shanoakes.typepad.com
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=33635377720
b).. THE PAST (DAVID DAVIS):
http://www.daviddavisforfreedom.com
2). Mainstream bookmakers such as Paddy Power are not currently putting prices on the Haltemprice and Howden by-election on their website.
Yesterday, however, I emailed support@paddypower.com to ask them what price they would offer for the Green [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Market Calls), Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Politics | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Clueless and retarded InTrade traders (“the sheep”) can’t take “no” for an answer. — Short sellers (“the wolves”) will BBQ them.

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 3, 2008 — 3 Comments

Still trading at 30% this Thursday morning.
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- US Military Chief Says Any Attack on Iran Would be Destabilizing.
- Israel has signaled the U.S. and other allies that air operations to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities are not imminent.
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Explainer On Prediction Markets
Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

We interrupt this bulletin devoted to the upcoming CFTC ruling to inform you that we’re afraid that your “Israel-bombs-Iran-in-2008″ event derivatives are now completely… WORTHLESS —unless you’re a short seller.

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 2, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Israel has signaled the U.S. and other allies that air operations to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities are not imminent.
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Explainer On Prediction Markets
Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

One word is missing (“Israel”), and the event derivative market is useless.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 29, 2008 — Leave a Comment

The USA or the UN will attack Iran before winter, 2008

© NewsFutures

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , , ,

The “Israel bombs Iran” event derivative at InTrade should go further than the end of December 2008 to be fully useful.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 29, 2008 — Leave a Comment

They need to create contracts for 2009 —since Barack Obama takes office in January 2009, and since the timeframe given by that Israeli spy covers 2008 S2 and 2009 S1.
See my post on Midas Oracle .COM for more on the situation.
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Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , , ,

Voodoo analysis of prediction market contracts

Written by Mike Linksvayer on June 28, 2008 — 8 Comments

I wonder if the following is a joke:
Events these past few weeks make an airstrike on Iran more likely. The Intrade contract reinforces this view. While the probability remains moderate at 32%, the chart shows a market that is strengthening.
Here is stock-type technical analysis applied to this contract. There is a large “cup” going back [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Humor, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , ,

After Iraq, the neo-cons’ next target is Iran.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 24, 2008 — Leave a Comment

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I have posted the John Bolton video on Midas Oracle .COM.
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Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , ,
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