Tag Archives: Islamic Republic of Iran

INTRADE TRADERS, BEWARE. — Primary indicators from Iran might not be reliable: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad doctors pictures using PhotoShop.

Posted on July 10, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- UPDATE:

Posted in Leading & Lagging Indicators, Politics | Tagged Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, missiles | Leave a comment

What I mean by “advanced” and “retarded”

Posted on July 7, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- An event is “advanced” when it is before the others on the timeline. – An event is “retarded” when it is after the others on the timeline. – - I use the term “advanced, primary indicator” to talk about … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Market Calls), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Miscellaneous, Psychology, Science | Tagged advanced, bombing, bombs, Central Intelligence Agency, chief, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, InTrade trader, Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, meta forecasting tools, Mossad, Pentagon, physics, prediction markets, retarded, Says Any Attack, strikes, time, U.S. military, United States, USD, war | Leave a comment

My response to the CFTC on event contracts

Posted on July 5, 2008 by Jason Ruspini

Here is my response to the CFTC’s “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” I appreciate this opportunity to help in working towards regulated prediction markets in the US, and I thank the Commissioners for it. Given … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Politics, Regulations | Tagged arbitrator, Brookings Institution Press, candidate, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Three Lafayette Centre, Congress, Democratic president, Department of the Treasury, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, Eriz Zitzewitz, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, for-profit prediction exchanges, General, insurance contracts, Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran, Jason Ruspini, Justin Wolfers, laws, not-for-profit prediction exchanges, oil prices, particular product, Paul Tetlock, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, President, Quarterly Journal of Political Science, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, S&P 500, Securities and Exchange Commission, South Carolina, the candidate, Trader, United States, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, USD, Washington D.C. | Leave a comment

How to make a MILLION POUNDS on the rotting corpse of David Davis’s political career (to be used for ethical purposes only)

Posted on July 3, 2008 by Guest Author

1). For the form guide in this two-horse race, please see: a). THE PRESENT (SHAN OAKES, GREEN): http://shanoakes.blogspot.com http://shanoakes.typepad.com http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=33635377720 b).. THE PAST (DAVID DAVIS): http://www.daviddavisforfreedom.com 2). Mainstream bookmakers such as Paddy Power are not currently putting prices on the … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Market Calls), Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Politics | Tagged BetFair, David Davis, Emperor, GBP, Green Party, HTML, IAN BROWN, InTrade, Ireland, Islamic Republic of Iran, online button, Paddy Hedges Anti-Hedge Fund Manager, prediction markets, RAOUL VANEIGEM, SHAN OAKES, UK politics, United Kingdom | 20 Comments

Clueless and retarded InTrade traders (“the sheep”) can’t take “no” for an answer. — Short sellers (“the wolves”) will BBQ them.

Posted on July 3, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Still trading at 30% this Thursday morning. – - – US Military Chief Says Any Attack on Iran Would be Destabilizing. – Israel has signaled the U.S. and other allies that air operations to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities are not … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged bombing, bombs, chief, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, meta forecasting tools, prediction markets, Says Any Attack, strikes, U.S. military, United States, USD, war | 3 Comments

We interrupt this bulletin devoted to the upcoming CFTC ruling to inform you that we’re afraid that your “Israel-bombs-Iran-in-2008″ event derivatives are now completely… WORTHLESS —unless you’re a short seller.

Posted on July 2, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Israel has signaled the U.S. and other allies that air operations to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities are not imminent. – - Explainer On Prediction Markets Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged bombing, bombs, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, meta forecasting tools, prediction markets, strikes, United States, USD, war, WORTHLESS | Leave a comment

One word is missing (“Israel”), and the event derivative market is useless.

Posted on June 29, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The USA or the UN will attack Iran before winter, 2008 Â© NewsFutures

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged bombings, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, play-money prediction markets, prediction markets, United Nations, United States, war | Leave a comment

The “Israel bombs Iran” event derivative at InTrade should go further than the end of December 2008 to be fully useful.

Posted on June 29, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

They need to create contracts for 2009 —since Barack Obama takes office in January 2009, and since the timeframe given by that Israeli spy covers 2008 S2 and 2009 S1. See my post on Midas Oracle .COM for more on … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Barack Obama, bombs. bombins, Iran, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, spy, strikes, war | Leave a comment

Voodoo analysis of prediction market contracts

Posted on June 28, 2008 by Mike Linksvayer

I wonder if the following is a joke: Events these past few weeks make an airstrike on Iran more likely. The Intrade contract reinforces this view. While the probability remains moderate at 32%, the chart shows a market that is … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Humor, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged event derivative markets, event derivatives, Humor, InTrade, Iran, Iran bombings, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, prediction markets, war | 8 Comments

After Iraq, the neo-cons’ next target is Iran.

Posted on June 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- I have posted the John Bolton video on Midas Oracle .COM. -

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged InTrade, Iran, Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, John Bolton, prediction markets, war | Leave a comment