Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Iraqi government

Austan Goolsbee on Iraq and the Collective Wisdom of Bond Markets

Written by Michael Giberson on November 11, 2007 — 2 Comments

Austan Goolsbee, writing in the New York Times, discusses Michael Greenstone’s paper (discussed here at Midas Oracle in September) that examines the market for Iraq’s bonds for an assessment of the long-term future of the Iraq government. Goolsbee’s quick conclusion: “But global financial markets have been monitoring the war for months, and with remarkable [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Finance | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Extracting Market Predictions from Financial Data: Is the ‘Surge’ Working?

Written by Michael Giberson on September 15, 2007 — Leave a Comment

At Economist’s View, Mark Thoma draws attention to a recent paper that uses financial markets data to infer a market prediction of the likely effectiveness of the U.S. government’s ‘Surge’ strategy in Iraq.
In “Is The ‘Surge’ Working? Some New Facts“, MIT’s Michael Greenstone writes:
This paper shows how data from world financial markets can [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , ,

The US president argued today that an Al Qaeda-affiliated group in Iraq is linked tightly to the central Al Qaeda leadership.

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 24, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Larry Downing / Reuters
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George W. Bush is an imbécile. Who created ex nihilo this Iraq mess?
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George W. Bush to be impeached by House of Representatives before end of his term in office

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Static chart:

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Iraqi Government to meet Oil Distribution benchmark on/before 30 Sep 07

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Static chart:

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Also tagged , , , , , , ,

Plenty of new socially valuable prediction markets at InTrade.

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 20, 2007 — 7 Comments

InTrade seems to take its role as market leader for US political prediction markets very seriously. Since its official splitting with TradeSports, InTrade has opened many interesting prediction markets on legal, political and geo-political issues.
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National Leader Departure Markets: Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Zimbabwe & Ireland
Friday, Jul 20, 2007
The Exchange has listed a number of contracts on [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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