PROVEN AND DOCUMENTED: Joe Weisenthal is drunken with his own manipulation paranoia.

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Joe is going off the deep end. Market noises are now interpreted as the intergalactic battle between the pro-HCR and the anti-HCR, who are both seeking to manipulate the InTrade prediction markets. No evidence whatsoever is displayed.

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P.S: I am not picking on Joe, who is a good web curator, and a nice chap. Just disagree with him (and Andrew Golberg) that prediction market journalism is easy to do. Good prediction market journalism is very hard to do. Requires scoops and pertinent analysis. Scrapping exchange probabilities and aggregating it with re-written news is not enough.

ADDENDUM

More info on health care reform on Memeorandum.

Previously: Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?

Health care reform is down to 47% at InTrade. -> Toss a coin, it will get you the same.

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So much for the &#8220-insider trading&#8221- who signaled the certainty of the adoption of the new health care reform bill. Joe Weisenthal swallowed InTrade CEO&#8217-s marketing bait.

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More on Memeorandum.

Previously: Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?

Business Insider readers are rather skeptical of the InTrade insider trading story.

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Many are critical. Read.

Plus, the event derivative is back to 55% [UPDATE: 47%] &#8212-slightly above tossing a coin.

Prediction Market Chart

Here&#8217-s The Hill on the prospect for the bill. &#8211- More on Memeorandum.

Previously: Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?

Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?

InTrade CEO John Delaney:

&#8230-it is a reasonably active market but atypically a lot of the trade is coming from the DC area when normally we might see trade coming from all the major urban areas.

Prediction Market Chart

ADDENDUM: For your information, in Great Britain, sporting insiders (such as athletes or jockeys) who trade on betting exchanges (such as BetFair) are actively monitored.

Joe Weisenthal is now in bed with InTrade.

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Business Insider cites various InTrade probabilities.

  1. Joe should mention whether there is volume on each market.
  2. Joe should cite BetFair, not InTrade, for any UK-related event.
  3. Joe should be aware of InTrade&#8217-s long history of fucking up contracts and settlements on non-sporting events. (Type &#8220-North Korea missile InTrade&#8221- in Google, and review the various InTrade forums for traces of past fights.)

France will soon block access to the BetFair and InTrade websites.

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Gambling operators that are not be licensed by France will have their web access blocked for the French public. The license would require that servers be located within French territory.

France = Communist China