Midas Oracle .ORG » InTrade .COM http://www.midasoracle.org Prediction Markets, etc. Mon, 13 Feb 2012 22:24:30 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 Yahoo! News finally links to InTrade —for legal reasons, not to InTrade .COM (their real-money prediction exchange), but to InTrade .NET (their play-money prediction exchange, which uses an AMM linked to InTrade .COM, without disclosing it to the public). http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/29/yahoo-news-finally-links-to-intrade-for-legal-reasons-not-to-intrade-com-their-real-money-prediction-exchange-but-to-intrade-net-their-play-money-prediction-exchange-which-uses-an-amm-link/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/29/yahoo-news-finally-links-to-intrade-for-legal-reasons-not-to-intrade-com-their-real-money-prediction-exchange-but-to-intrade-net-their-play-money-prediction-exchange-which-uses-an-amm-link/#comments Mon, 29 Sep 2008 08:46:47 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=10004

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- InTrade .COM

- InTrade .NET

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]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/29/yahoo-news-finally-links-to-intrade-for-legal-reasons-not-to-intrade-com-their-real-money-prediction-exchange-but-to-intrade-net-their-play-money-prediction-exchange-which-uses-an-amm-link/feed/ 0 Short-Term Prediction Markets http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/15/short-term-prediction-markets/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/15/short-term-prediction-markets/#comments Mon, 15 Sep 2008 13:31:02 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=9495 InTrade Xs

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/15/short-term-prediction-markets/feed/ 0 The prediction exchanges that have fully embraced the prediction market approach http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/14/prediction-market-approach/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/14/prediction-market-approach/#comments Sun, 14 Sep 2008 06:59:57 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=9456 Continue reading →]]> These prediction exchanges present prices as probabilities (expressed in percentages):

- HubDub

- InTrade .NET … [*] … would get the full point if they were to switch the label “price” for “probability” on their charts.

- NewsFutures … gets half a point. No mention of “probabilities” on their charts.

- Inkling Markets … gets a quarter of a point.

- TradeFair … gets an honorable mention, but won’t show its charts to the non-registered public. :(

[*] Which prefigures what InTrade .COM is going to be, soon, if I understood well my Deep Throat’s tip.

As for the ultra innovative YooPick, is it yet another case of “do what I say, not what I do“?… :-D

APPENDIX: Lance Fortnow is PMA compatible:

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UPDATE: See the comments…

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/14/prediction-market-approach/feed/ 6 Questions to InTrade CEO John Delaney about InTrade .NET and InTrade .COM http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/05/intrade-net-and-intrade-com/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/05/intrade-net-and-intrade-com/#comments Fri, 05 Sep 2008 08:52:58 +0000 Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=9079 Continue reading →]]> - InTrade .NET is a play-money prediction exchange while InTrade .COM is a real-money prediction exchange. Is there an automated market maker linking the InTrade .NET prices (or bids) with the InTrade .COM prices?

- Why is it that you ask the consumers of InTrade .NET to sign the terms of use of InTrade .COM, which mentions that: “2.2.4 You may lose money on Exchange trades.”? – [Thanks to Deep Throat for that remark.]

- InTrade .NET has a very good charting system. Will the same charting system be implemented at InTrade .COM whose charts are absolutely awful? (See this comparison between the InTrade .COM charts and the InTrade .COM v2 charts.) I insist to say that this should be a priority.

- Will InTrade .NET have chart widgets, just like InTrade .COM and InTrade .COM v2 both have?

- Will InTrade .NET have closed contracts (which are very useful in the accuracy discussions), just like InTrade .COM and InTrade .COM v2 both have?

- Finally, it is stated on the InTrade .COM frontpage (in a text promoting InTrade .NET) that:

When Intrade.net goes out of beta it will become the new default but the current version of Intrade.com will be retained indefinitely.

How should we understand that? Does this mean that you are going to merge your play-money and real-money prediction exchanges? (Might not be a bad idea provided that full information is given on each prediction market.)

UPDATE: Deep Throat tells me that their techies are testing their new user interface on InTrade .NET, which deals with with play money, and then if everything works out well, they may implement the same user interface on InTrade .COM, which deals with real money —while maintaining the legacy InTrade .COM on a dedicated server, for the nostalgic users.

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