Midas Oracle .ORG » Internet searches

Do give the Nobel prize to Yahoo! research scientist David Pennock. — Santo Subito! [*]

Chris F. Masse — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 09:41:28 +0000

He and his co-authors were the first to publish about the fact that flu-related searches on the Web are precise predictors of the upcoming influenza outbreaks.

Congrats.

Best wishes for the rest of their scientific career.

[*] “Make him a Saint, now!”, in Italian.

Predict Google’s market share (extracting early information from primary sources), and become rich —maybe (or maybe not).

Chris F. Masse — Sat, 02 Feb 2008 21:11:37 +0000

As I said previously, I’m in favor of listing the URLs of the advanced indicators on the prediction market pages. Prediction markets with better advanced indicators (as it is the case in political elections and finance) should be proven to be more liquid than markets with poor ones.

That said, I love David Pennock’s prediction markets:

A contract will expire according to the percentage share of internet searches conducted in the United States in 2008. For example, if 53.5% of searches conducted in the United States in 2008 are made using Google then the contract listed for Google will expire at 53.5â€¦

Will these prediction markets take off? (Any prediction market with good advanced indicators would already have taken off, by now, in my view.)

Search engine futures!

David Pennock — Fri, 25 Jan 2008 15:03:09 +0000

Cross posted from Oddhead Blog.

I am happy to report that on my suggestion intrade has listed futures contracts for 2008 search engine market share.

Here is how they work:

A contract will expire according to the percentage share of internet searches conducted in the United States in 2008. For example, if 53.5% of searches conducted in the United States in 2008 are made using Google then the contract listed for Google will expire at 53.5…

…Expiry will be based on the United States search share rankings published by Nielson Online.

I think this could be a fascinating market because:

Search engine market share is very important to these major companies, with dramatic effects on their share prices.
Search engine market share is fluid, so far with Google growing inexorably. However, Microsoft has cash, determination, Internet Explorer, and the willingness to experiment. Ask.com has erasers, 3D, ad budgets, and The Algorithm. Yahoo!, second in market share, often tests equal or better than Google, and new features like Search Assist are impressive.
The media loves to write about it.
A major search company might use the market to hedge. Well, this seems far-fetched but you never know. Certainly, from an economic risk management standpoint it would seem to make a great deal of sense. (Here, as always on this blog, I speak on behalf of myself and not my company.)

Finally, I have to comment on how refreshingly easy the process was in working with intrade. They went from suggestion to implementation in a matter of days. It’s a shame that US-based companies are in contrast stuck in stultifying legal and regulatory mud.