[...] The [Silicon] Valley residents see themselves as true entrepreneurs, entirely focused and dedicated. Marc Andreessen, 36, the co-founder of three companies in the Valley (Netscape, Opsware and Ning), concedes that San Francisco is generating more start-ups these days. “But in general, the nerds with minimal social lives like me are well down in the Valley, and the cool kids with the trendy glasses and Prada shoes who like to go to parties are in San Francisco,” Mr. Andreessen said in an e-mail message. “You can guess who has the leg up in building companies.”

While in the Delphi a small number of selected experts are asked to judge predefined theses, it is the goal of TechForX to enhance traditional foresight activities by involving a preferably broad public. Thus, TechForX invites every internet user to participate by revealing his / her opinion on a subset of the same theses that are asked in the Delphi.

The results will be incorporated in EPIS to improve strategic decision-making of European policy makers. Furthermore, the findings will be analyzed in my dissertation which aims at comparing the applicability of prediction markets for long-term developments to established approaches like the Delphi.

Your support for this research project by registering and participating at www.techforx.org is very much appreciated!

To get an impression on the discussed topics, here are some of the theses that are currently traded on TechForX:

• More money is spent on internet advertising in search engines and navigation tools than on television advertising.
• On average, users spend more time watching personalized TV on demand than fixed programs.
• A value added tax (VAT) for transactions within virtual worlds (like Second Life) is raised.
• Online self-publication of books (without involving publishing houses) is the predominant way of commercial distribution, even for established authors.
• Virtual visits to museums over the internet are more popular than physical visits.