Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Information Aggregation

In which I respectfully disagree with Patri Friedman

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 27, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Patri Friedman (commenting on the Robin Hanson gadfly’s post):
Ah, Mencius. Combines a brilliant insight on prediction markets that I hadn’t seen before and increases my understanding (they require training) with ridiculously stupid points like “They can’t predict things that no one knows”.
Duh, they are information aggregators which give us a better estimate of the consensus [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , ,

Why reporting stuff about prediction markets means bugging the prediction market people till they spit the truth finally

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 25, 2009 — 2 Comments

If you have been a feed subscriber of Midas Oracle for a long time (we started in 2006 here, and in 2003 for CFM), you know that I act as a gadfly. But there is a reason for that. If I were a simple stenographer, re-publishing press releases (and making friends with the prediction market [...]

Posted in Consulting, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Prediction Journalism | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

NewsFutures’s software and consulting on enterprise prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 22, 2009 — 2 Comments

I am happy to run Emile Servan-Schreiber’s correction (well, correcting me ) on the fact that NewsFutures still provides EPM SaaS, since I love NewsFutures’s CDA technology as much as Chris Hibbert does. However, I maintain that providers of collective intelligence solutions for companies are turning their back to the trading technology, from [...]

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Cases, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Software | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Should you be bullish on enterprise prediction markets?

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 22, 2009 — 8 Comments

Robin Hanson:
There is now a prediction market industry, where I do a lot of consulting, most of which is to private companies.  Most of these are on prediction markets, but some are decision markets.
What Robin Hanson does not say to his gullible readers (mostly, young collegians who have no experience of real-life forecasting) is that:

When [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Fox… and the Hedgehog

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 7, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Emile Servan-Schreiber looks like the fox to me. He acknowledges a reality: the prediction market adoption problematic. (Leslie Fine is in the same boat.) Okay, but I want more proof. How come Inkling Markets administrators seem to be happy with MSR, then?
Adam Siegel is no hedgehog.
Addendum
Here is the definition of a fox (as opposed to [...]

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Mechanism Designs, Psychology | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Inkling Administrator Conference is live on Twitter.

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 7, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Arik Johnson is twittering it.
#inkling
And the event is being video-tapped… —stay tuned to Midas Oracle.
P.S.: The Inkling workshop is a regret-free conference.

Posted in Events & Meetings | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Inkling Administrator Conference on May 7th, 2009, in Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 7, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Adam Siegel is twittering it.
#inkling
Best wishes to Inkling Markets for their workshop. It will be a rich event, and no-one will have “regrets” about it.

Posted in Events & Meetings | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Simpler Input Mechanisms

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 28, 2009 — 1 Comment

I really like what Emile Servan-Schreiber replied to Robin Hanson. I really like it. However, if I am correct NewsFutures never implemented MSR, so how can Emile be so affirmative? Rather, I would like to hear from Mat Fogarty or Leslie Fine (of Xpree/CrowdCast) who did implement MSR, and recently decided to move out to [...]

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Mechanism Designs | Also tagged , , , , , , ,

eLab eXchange – Which real estate search site will see the most traffic?

Written by Lawrence Wright on April 16, 2009 — 2 Comments

The eLab eXchange is up and running again with new markets and more to come on a regular basis!
Spring is the traditional home buying season and many real estate professionals are predicting a significant “spring bounce.” Will it happen? Try your hand at predicting the rise (or fall) in web traffic to 5 popular real estate [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Also tagged , , , , ,

Prediction Market Definition —updated

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 4, 2008 — 1 Comment

Definition
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A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
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