Tag Archives: Information Aggregation

In which I respectfully disagree with Patri Friedman

Posted on May 27, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Patri Friedman (commenting on the Robin Hanson gadfly’s post): Ah, Mencius. Combines a brilliant insight on prediction markets that I hadn’t seen before and increases my understanding (they require training) with ridiculously stupid points like “They can’t predict things that … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Collective Forecasting, Information Aggregation, Patri Friedman, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Why reporting stuff about prediction markets means bugging the prediction market people till they spit the truth finally

Posted on May 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

If you have been a feed subscriber of Midas Oracle for a long time (we started in 2006 here, and in 2003 for CFM), you know that I act as a gadfly. But there is a reason for that. If … Continue reading →

Posted in Consulting, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Prediction Journalism | Tagged Collective Intelligence, collective intelligence solutions, corporate prediction markets, Emile Servan-Schreiber, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Information Aggregation, internal prediction markets, NewsFutures, Prediction Market Software, prediction markets, private prediction markets, software for prediction markets, wisdom of crowds | 2 Comments

NewsFutures’s software and consulting on enterprise prediction markets

Posted on May 22, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I am happy to run Emile Servan-Schreiber’s correction (well, correcting me ) on the fact that NewsFutures still provides EPM SaaS, since I love NewsFutures’s CDA technology as much as Chris Hibbert does. However, I maintain that providers of collective … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Cases, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Software | Tagged Collective Intelligence, collective intelligence solutions, corporate prediction markets, Emile Servan-Schreiber, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Information Aggregation, internal prediction markets, NewsFutures, Prediction Market Software, prediction markets, private prediction markets, software for prediction markets, wisdom of crowds | 2 Comments

Should you be bullish on enterprise prediction markets?

Posted on May 22, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson: There is now a prediction market industry, where I do a lot of consulting, most of which is to private companies.Â Most of these are on prediction markets, but some are decision markets. What Robin Hanson does not … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Collective Intelligence, corporate prediction markets, CrowdCast, decision-aid markets, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Information Aggregation, Inkling, inkling markets, internal prediction markets, NewsFutures, prediction market industry, prediction markets, private prediction markets, Robin Hanson, wisdom of crowds | 8 Comments

The Fox… and the Hedgehog

Posted on May 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Emile Servan-Schreiber looks like the fox to me. He acknowledges a reality: the prediction market adoption problematic. (Leslie Fine is in the same boat.) Okay, but I want more proof. How come Inkling Markets administrators seem to be happy with … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Mechanism Designs, Psychology | Tagged accuracy, CrowdCast, Emile Servan-Schreiber, fox, hedgehog, Information Aggregation, inkling markets, Leslie Fine, NewsFutures, non-trading mechanisms, prediction markets, trading, trading mechanisms, usability | Leave a comment

Inkling Administrator Conference is live on Twitter.

Posted on May 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Arik Johnson is twittering it. #inkling And the event is being video-tapped… —stay tuned to Midas Oracle. P.S.: The Inkling workshop is a regret-free conference.

Posted in Events & Meetings | Tagged Adam Siegel, Collective Intelligence, conferences, enterprise prediction markets, Events & Meetings, Information Aggregation, Inkling, Inkling Administrator Conference, inkling markets, prediction markets, Twitter, wisdom of crowds, workshops | Leave a comment

Inkling Administrator Conference on May 7th, 2009, in Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.

Posted on May 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Adam Siegel is twittering it. #inkling Best wishes to Inkling Markets for their workshop. It will be a rich event, and no-one will have “regrets” about it.

Simpler Input Mechanisms

Posted on April 28, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I really like what Emile Servan-Schreiber replied to Robin Hanson. I really like it. However, if I am correct NewsFutures never implemented MSR, so how can Emile be so affirmative? Rather, I would like to hear from Mat Fogarty or … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Mechanism Designs | Tagged accuracy, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Information Aggregation, non-trading mechanisms, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, trading, trading mechanisms, usability | 1 Comment

eLab eXchange – Which real estate search site will see the most traffic?

Posted on April 16, 2009 by Lawrence Wright

The eLab eXchange is up and running again with new markets and more to come on a regular basis! Spring is the traditional home buying season and many real estate professionals are predicting a significant “spring bounce.” Will it happen? … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged competitive forecasting, eLab exchange, Information Aggregation, NewsFutures, prediction markets, real estate, UCR | 2 Comments

Prediction Market Definition —updated

Posted on October 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Definition – A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, betting markets, definitions, event derivative, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasting mechanisms, future events, Information Aggregation, information value, objective probabilistic predictions, prediction accuracy, prediction market, prediction market definition, prediction market explainer, prediction markets, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, Robin Hanson, the future | 1 Comment

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