Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: individual trader

Robin Hanson’s purity test is based on an absurd principle.

It’s not the motivation that is important to assess —it’s the liquidity that counts. The more trades, the better. Liquidity leads to statistically accurate probabilities predictions. Liquidity, liquidity, liquidity, doc.
-
Robin Hanson:
One proposed distinguishing criteria includes the size of an individual trader’s stake, and the number of traders. The Iowa Electronic Markets are limited on both [...]

What I think of Robin Hanson’s comment to the CFTC… and what I think about his slam at TradeSports-InTrade, BetFair-TradeFair, and HedgeStreet.

Overall, his input is very brainy.
It’s a major contribution to the general discussion about prediction markets.
-
Please, allow me to disagree on one thing he said.
-
Robin Hanson:
One proposed distinguishing criteria includes the size of an individual trader’s stake, and the number of traders. The Iowa Electronic Markets are limited on both of these parameters. Such limits [...]

What Robin Hanson told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

Robin Hanson:
Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 10:12:46 -0400
To: secretary@cftc.gov
From: Robin Hanson <rhanson@gmu.edu>
Subject: Comment on “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts”
—————————————————————-
I am an event market innovator, having published the first detailed discussions envisioning their widespread application, having designed a widely used trading mechanism (the market scoring rule), and having co-developed the first [...]

The PopSci PPX betting exchange has been plagged by manipulators.

The PopSci PPX managers are finally reacting and strengthening their rules.
1) Market manipulation will not be tolerated. PPX defines market manipulation as engaging in any activity which may artificially affect the market price of a security, or any other PPX market information. Market manipulation may include, but is not limited to: coordinated trading by different [...]

Trading Pro: a prediction system that offers market price forecasts

Via Niall O’Connor, Trading Pro:
OUTSTANDING TRADING SYSTEM
Amazingly accurate daily and intraday market forecasts of the Dow, NASDAQ, S&P 100, S&P 500, and the major overseas markets.
TradingPRO is and easy-to-trade trading system, specially designed to day trade the market indexes or correlated products (future indexes, e-minies contracts, options, and cash market) giving you easy to follow [...]

Inkling Markets: New Logo, New HomePage

- No link from the frontpage to the listing of their play-money prediction markets. (These two Chicago Boys have a screw loose, in my view.)
- I don’t like the blablating under the “Inkling Markets Explained” headline. Too long. Not accurate. (Mitigating risk, you say??? You can’t be serious.)
- 18 clients listed. Great. (Take that, Robin [...]

Iowa Electronic Markets: Avian Influenza Prediction Markets + Influenza Prediction Markets

Iowa Electronic Markets: Avian Influenza Prediction Markets
Another global influenza pandemic, similar to the 1918 occurrence, is considered inevitable by many experts. Recent cases of avian influenza (H5N1) in birds and humans have led many to fear that this strain of the “bird flu” may produce the next worldwide influenza pandemic. Recent observations indicate that H5N1’s [...]

Futility of real-money/play-money market linkage

Longtime readers may recall the real-money/reward-only prediction markets debate that has played out over the past couple of months. The fact that it is occurring at all is a tribute to the creativity/outside-the-box thinking of Emile Servan-Schreiber. (“Reward-only” seems a better description of “play-money” markets than “play-money markets,” because apparently, usually there are minor prizes [...]

Search

Post Categories