Tag Archives: individual trader

Robin Hanson’s purity test is based on an absurd principle.

It’s not the motivation that is important to assess —it’s the liquidity that counts. The more trades, the better. Liquidity leads to statistically accurate probabilities predictions. Liquidity, liquidity, liquidity, doc. – Robin Hanson: One proposed distinguishing criteria includes the size … Continue reading

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What I think of Robin Hanson’s comment to the CFTC… and what I think about his slam at TradeSports-InTrade, BetFair-TradeFair, and HedgeStreet.

Overall, his input is very brainy. It’s a major contribution to the general discussion about prediction markets. – Please, allow me to disagree on one thing he said. – Robin Hanson: One proposed distinguishing criteria includes the size of an … Continue reading

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What Robin Hanson told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

Robin Hanson: Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 10:12:46 -0400 To: secretary@cftc.gov From: Robin Hanson <rhanson@gmu.edu> Subject: Comment on “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts” —————————————————————- I am an event market innovator, having published the first detailed … Continue reading

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The PopSci PPX betting exchange has been plagged by manipulators.

The PopSci PPX managers are finally reacting and strengthening their rules. 1) Market manipulation will not be tolerated. PPX defines market manipulation as engaging in any activity which may artificially affect the market price of a security, or any other … Continue reading

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Trading Pro: a prediction system that offers market price forecasts

Via Niall O’Connor, Trading Pro: OUTSTANDING TRADING SYSTEM Amazingly accurate daily and intraday market forecasts of the Dow, NASDAQ, S&P 100, S&P 500, and the major overseas markets. TradingPRO is and easy-to-trade trading system, specially designed to day trade the … Continue reading

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Inkling Markets: New Logo, New HomePage

- No link from the frontpage to the listing of their play-money prediction markets. (These two Chicago Boys have a screw loose, in my view.) – I don’t like the blablating under the “Inkling Markets Explained” headline. Too long. Not … Continue reading

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Mechanism Designs, Software | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Iowa Electronic Markets: Avian Influenza Prediction Markets + Influenza Prediction Markets

Iowa Electronic Markets: Avian Influenza Prediction Markets Another global influenza pandemic, similar to the 1918 occurrence, is considered inevitable by many experts. Recent cases of avian influenza (H5N1) in birds and humans have led many to fear that this strain … Continue reading

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Futility of real-money/play-money market linkage

Longtime readers may recall the real-money/reward-only prediction markets debate that has played out over the past couple of months. The fact that it is occurring at all is a tribute to the creativity/outside-the-box thinking of Emile Servan-Schreiber. (“Reward-only” seems a … Continue reading

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