Tag Archives: Indianapolis Colts

The methodology of prediction market event study — Multiple Causes Edition — REDUX

Posted on February 14, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Keith Jacks Gamble on Michael Abramowicz’s Gamble on Gambling on Keith Jacks Gamble’s Super Bowl Analysis Highlights: I agree that the simultaneity problem and the anticipation problem are confounding factors in assessing a player’s contribution to his team’s chance of … Continue reading →

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Super Bowl Analysis Highlights

Posted on February 9, 2007 by Keith Jacks Gamble

The Colts entered the game with a 68% chance of winning. The Bears winning the coin toss made them 0.5% more likely to win. Devin Hester’s kick return for a touchdown made the Bears 10.25% more likely to win. Thomas … Continue reading →

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An Analysis of the 2007 Superbowl Using Price Changes on TradeSports

Posted on February 9, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

An Analysis of the Superbowl Using Price Changes on an Online Prediction Exchange – (TradeSports) – (PDF) – by Keith Jacks Gamble – 2007-02-08 ABSTRACT: I analyze Superbowl XLI by matching price changes for a futures contract on the winner … Continue reading →

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Some interesting historical data on the Superbowl

Posted on February 2, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

From Allen St. John of the WSJ (subscription required): Over the last 22 Super Bowls, 18 — 86% of them — were won by the team that came into the game after allowing fewer regular-season points. (In the 2004-05 regular … Continue reading →

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SuperBowl XLI Winner: Indianapolis Colts – REDUX

Posted on January 22, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

TradeSports: 40.9% –> 69.6% BetFair: 40% –> 69,4% NewsFutures: 67% — (((Psstt… In passing, note that NewsFutures links to the Wikipedia entry on prediction markets in their contract documentation.)))

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Super Bowl XLI Winner: Indianapolis Colts

Posted on January 21, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

TradeSports: 40.9% BetFair: 40%

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Conditional Superbowl victory probabilities

Posted on January 16, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

From Tradesports contracts: 70% NFL.PATRIOTS 65% NFL.COLTS 36% NFL.SAINTS 33% NFL.BEARS Cross-posted from CaveatBettor. Last of 3 posts, the prior post available here.

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Latest conditional probabilities for NFL playoff teams

Posted on January 8, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

As of noontime Mon Dec 8, the remaining 8 teams bayesian probabilities looked like this: 71% NFL.COLTS 70% NFL.PATRIOTS 67% NFL.CHARGERS 62% NFL.RAVENS 43% NFL.SEAHAWKS 41% NFL.EAGLES 35% NFL.SAINTS 32% NFL.BEARS I have included last week’s probabilities as well. Note … Continue reading →

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For those NFL fans who also subscribe to Bayes

Posted on January 4, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

Tradesports provides probability markets in Super Bowl and Conference victories. It logically follows that a team can only win the Super Bowl if it wins its conference, i.e. p (B | A) = 1. Bayes’ Theorem provides the probablity of … Continue reading →

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