Tag Archives: inaccuracy

Celebrating such “successes” leads to backfire when the markets end up *not* being correct.

That is true, Panos, but there is absolutely nothing you can do to prevent the non-academic prediction exchanges to brag about “successes” —“we nailed all 50 states”. Note that, by contrast, the efficiency (velocity) argument does not lead to any … Continue reading

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Accuracy and Efficiency of Prediction Markets

To sum up things… And in other words: The relative accuracy of the prediction markets = epsilon and (quite) controversial. The relative efficiency of the prediction markets versus the mass media (not the vertical media) = big (in complicated situations), … Continue reading

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