Sounds like Google did “-announce”- —-as opposed to “-launch”-. Sense the nuance?
And so the HubDub prediction market will expire as a “-NO”- —-as I understand it.
Mr. Kristof, if you want to keep yourself accountable and track the success of your predictions in the long run and in real-time, why not simply participate in a prediction market such as NewsFutures?
You could suggest that particular stocks be listed in relation to particular new stories and their possible outcomes. Then, as you invest in particular outcomes, your prediction portfolio would either grow or shrink, providing us all with an objective measure of your foresight. You could feature on your blog a widget displaying in real-time the “-net worth”- of your various predictions.
Other advantages of this approach would include:
– Forcing a detailed specification of possible outcomes-
– Having you compete directly (bet against) the general public-
– Measuring how much your columns can influence price movements for various predictions-
– Leading by example to show other pundits how it’-s done.
There are various types of prediction markets out there, so you can pick the venue where you’-d feel most comfortable:
– Play-money only, like NewsFutures– [or HubDub ]
– Real betting (illegal) like Intrade-
– Charity-driven, like Bet2give.
If the idea intrigues you, please contact me at firstname.lastname@example.org and we can get you started right away!
Readers, do click on the link (which will bring you to the New York Times), and do click on “-Recommended”- under Emile’-s comment —-so that his pitch for the prediction markets will be more visible to all the people reading the comments there. Thanks. Appreciated.
HubDub – March Madness 2009:
*Prediction Market Technology – Experience March Madness Like Never Before*
March 16th: Anticipation is running high for the 2009 NCAA Division I Men’s
Basketball Championship (popularly known as March Madness) with the first
round tipping off on March 19th.
On the web users can watch all the live action for free on CBSSports.com.
Additionally, there are no shortage of sites offering brackets on which you
can predict who will win all 63 games in the tournament.
Hubdub however has launched a prediction competition with a difference.
Unlike a bracket, Hubdub players can trade predictions through out the
tournament and in the later stages during the actual games themselves.
Additionally, not only are all the usual match up questions but players will
also receive daily questions like “Will any team hit a 3 pointer with 5
seconds or less to win?” and “Will President Obama attend any March Madness
The Hubdub Predict-a-thon is free to enter and is offering $500 in cash
prizes to its top players. On top of that, if you introduce a friend to the
competition and they win, then you receive the same amount.
– Nate Silver: 0.6032
– InTrade: 0.3699
InTrade looks much better than Nate Silver on the Oscars 2009.
Waiting for the HubDub numbers, now. Nigel, are you napping or what?
Hubdub does not permit markets on the impending death (for example how or when) of people, or markets considered to be death tolls, unless expressly approved at the discretion of the Category Editor. This rule will apply even in the context of a mainstream news story. This rule applies to all markets created after February 10, 2009.
Nigel, welcome to Reality 2.0.