Tag Archives: Howard Dean

Barack Obama will finish off Hillary Clinton by June 15.

- Lawrence O’Donnell (a leftist journalist –but a good one, whom I appreciate): A senior campaign official and Clinton confidante has told me that there will be a Democratic nominee by June 15. [...] Yes, Clinton spokespersons publicly seem to … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

2008′s Hillary Clinton = 2004′s Howard Dean

2008 US presidential elections Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade — – Yahoo! News US Political Dashboard – Prediction Market Dashboard

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Misunderstanding Prediction Market Failures

Every now and again, I read something that simply makes my head spin. This [] New York Times article on prediction markets was just such a head-spinning column. It reached such a bizarre conclusion that it begs for comment. Longtime … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments