The authors also highlight a situation where there are positive returns to be had from a strategy of backing very strong favourites and, indeed, how, returns to betting on strong favourites are even greater when wagering is restricted to high profile tournaments such as Wimbledon.

“The evidence then is that this market is weak form efficient. Knowledge of returns on bets in one year allowed participants to identify a strategy that yielded above-average returns in the following year… we have even been able to document positive returns to a strategy of backing very strong favourites.”

I would like to read what Nate Silver thinks of horse racing forecasting.

Via mister Betting Market

It is to be hoped that Davies will make some headway with regard to promoting the notion of a global horse race betting exchange, as the answer to the horse racing industries’ woes.

The totalisator pool betting system is an anachronism that has failed both the horse racing industry and those that bet on the sport. It has survived through a combination of self-interest, inertia and fear of the unknown.

A global betting exchange dedicated solely to horse racing represents the logical way forward.

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MP3 file – Streamlined

Very interesting —if you care about betting on UK horse races.

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