WEB EXCLUSIVE: – The annoted, historical, compound chart that those triple morons at the BetFair blog are hiding from their readers view. – It is located in a secret cache, linked to behind a picture of Hillary Clinton. – Curious place to locate a prediction market chart. – I bet nobody downloaded t

No Gravatar



For comparison, InTrade:

VIDEO: Why Hillary Clinton will never be the Vice President of the United States of America.

No Gravatar

Commenter &#8220-Just Hinting&#8221- gives us this link:

Dick Morris phone interview

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Midas Oracle is only 6 times smaller than Fred Wilson’s blog, “A VC”.
  • The best blogs on prediction markets
  • The New Republic profiles the next Vice President of the United States of America —Jim Webb, maybe.
  • No Trades (other than at the start) —-> Not a reliable predictor, as of today
  • How you should read Midas Oracle
  • The best prediction exchanges
  • “There will be no media consumption left in ten years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”

Dick Morris (ex-strategist for Bill Clinton) devoted, not one, but two, strong columns against the Hillary-Clinton-as-VP scenario.

No Gravatar

Dick Morris:

It would be an act of terminal insanity for Barack Obama to name Hillary Clinton as his vice presidential candidate. […] Finally, having Hillary in the West Wing would be a nightmare.

Dick Morris:

Instead of conceding defeat and campaigning for Obama, auditioning for the spot of loyal teammate, Hillary insists on keeping her options open and vies for the spotlight with Obama, exactly what you do not want a vice president to do. […]

But the more serious problem is the public record that Todd Purdum, an excellent journalist, laid out in his Vanity Fair piece. Bill’s relationships with billionaires, his pursuit of financial gain, his alliance with the emir of Dubai, and his acceptance of speaking fees and income from some of the least savory of types is not what you need to carry around with you in a presidential race. […]

More Info: See Andrew Sullivan&#8230- who views Hillary Clinton as a detestable lady&#8230-

So, stay away from the &#8220-Hillary Clinton As VP&#8221- prediction markets&#8230- :-D

Dont trade on the VP predictions markets. – Dont bet on Hillary Clinton as VP. – Dont listen to betting bloggers who tell you that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket. – Dont believe in vice presidential selection committees. – Select well your primary, advanced indicators. –

No Gravatar

The topic of this post is:

Betting &amp- Information

#1. Don&#8217-t trade on the VP predictions markets.

I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. Only 2 men in the world know what is going to happen: Barack Obama, and John McCain.

You can&#8217-t divine their final thoughts.

Politicians often lie about their intentions &#8212-they also change mind, frequently.

The decision to name one VP nominee could be made in secret &#8212-without any early warnings.

Surprise is a card that Barack Obama and John McCain could play. Don&#8217-t bet against their final will.

#2. Don&#8217-t believe in &#8220-vice presidential selection committees&#8221-.

Last time, in 2000, a man named Dick Cheney was appointed to head George W. Bush&#8217-s vice presidential selection committee.

He was supposed to scout around to find and assess good candidates.

Surprise, surprise, that fake committee ended up putting Dick Cheney on the Republican ticket &#8212-and the rest is history (Iraq war, etc.).

#3. Don&#8217-t bet on Hillary Clinton as VP.

She does not have the slightest chance.

It&#8217-s highly unlikely that Barack Obama selects her on the Democratic ticket.

Hillary Clinton as VP nominee (and as VP) would present many quasi insurmountable problems.

#4. Don&#8217-t listen to betting bloggers who tell you that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket.

They are clueless.

Don&#8217-t read clueless people. They are a waste of time.

#5. Select well your primary, advanced indicators.

  1. Go to the sources of information. Discard filters. Your insatiable curiosity should drive your search for information.
  2. Use technology to select the best news articles out there. Bookmark Memeorandum for US politics (and TechMeme for information technology) &#8212-they use bloggers&#8217- links to select what&#8217-s hot, a bit like Google&#8217-s PageRank does.
  3. Use the crowd to sense what&#8217-s hot or to discover marginally interesting tidbits. I have 56 friends on Google Reader who share their best items with me. I got many interesting stories that way, every day, from sources I would have never known about, otherwise. (Plus, I receive many e-mails each day from potential sources.)

#6. Choose your bets (and trades) carefully.

Just because an event derivative is cheap doesn&#8217-t mean that it&#8217-s a good bet.

Don&#8217-t pluck down money on a bet unless you&#8217-ve seriously researched the topic by yourself &#8212-and possesses some expertise or experience in that field.

FOLLOW-UP POST: 2 days after my ringing the alarm bell… THE FREE FALL

InTrade

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Republican Vice President Nominee

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

BetFair

Next Vice President:

Democratic Ticket

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Republican Vice President Nominee

NewsFutures

Barack Obama will pick a woman as running mate.

© NewsFutures


Explainer On Prediction Markets

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out&#8230- Intelligence in, intelligence out&#8230-

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

EXPIRATIONS: Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Montana

No Gravatar

Expired prediction markets

InTrade

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets
  • Science
  • Why did prediction markets do well in the pre-polling era, professor Strumpf?
  • Mozilla FireFox users, do you have trouble downloading academic papers (as PDF files) from SSRN?
  • “Impact Matrix. Used to collect and gauge the likelihood and business impact of various events in the very long term.”
  • Ends and Means of Prediction Markets — Tom W. Bell Edition
  • How to run enterprise prediction markets… legally

Who will be the next US Vice President, past January 2009?

No Gravatar

UPDATE:

To be kept updated on the prediction markets, go to the frontpage of Midas Oracle, or click on the InTrade tag.

Here are the expired contracts about the Democratic vice presidential nominee (Joe Biden).

Here is the expired contract about the Repuiblican vice presidential nominee (Sarah Palin).

ORIGINAL POST:

Unlike Bo Cowgill, I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. Read this WSJ post, for more.

InTrade

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee (with Field contract)(expired at convention) at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Republican Vice President Nominee

Price for 2008 Republican VP Nominee (others upon request)(expired at convention) at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

BetFair

Next Vice President:

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Republican Vice President Nominee

NewsFutures

Barack Obama will pick a woman as running mate.

© NewsFutures


Explainer On Prediction Markets

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out&#8230- Intelligence in, intelligence out&#8230-

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

75,000 people turned out to hear Barack Obama at Waterfront Park, Portland, Oregon, U.S.A.

No Gravatar

Record Obama Crowd, the Size of a City

Oregon&#8217-s Democratic Primary

InTrade

Price for Oregon Democratic Primary. May 20th at intrade.com

BetFair

Kentucky&#8217-s Democratic Primary

InTrade

Price for Kentucky Democratic Primary. May 20th at intrade.com

BetFair

NewsFutures

Some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention.

© NewsFutures

First look at individual states for the 2008 US presidential elections

2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com

2008 US Presidential Elections

Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade

Next US President

Next US President

Winning Party

Winning Party

Female President?

Female President?

Democratic Candidate

Democratic Candidate

Republican Candidate

Republican Candidate

Source: BetFair Politics Zone

Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination


© NewsFutures

Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination


© NewsFutures

Next US President Will Be Democratic.


© NewsFutures

Next US President Will Be Republican.


© NewsFutures

Explainer On Prediction Markets

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out&#8230- Intelligence in, intelligence out&#8230-

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

More Info:

– The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

– Prediction Market Science

– The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

– All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

STRAIGHT FROM OUR U-TURN DEPARTMENT: Here are the VP prediction markets -all of them.

No Gravatar

Don&#8217-t you love the Web? Within 15 minutes after my posting my absolute and definitive refusal to publish any bits about the VP prediction markets, I received a long rebuttal by Google&#8217-s Bo Cowgill &#8212-whose great prediction market paper is still for you to download (PDF file), by the way.

Okay, Okay, Okay.


InTrade

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Republican Vice President Nominee

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

BetFair

Next Vice President:

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Republican Vice President Nominee

NewsFutures

Barack Obama will pick a woman as running mate.

© NewsFutures


Explainer On Prediction Markets

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out&#8230- Intelligence in, intelligence out&#8230-

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

Hillary Clinton won West Virginia. – Nobody cares but her.

No Gravatar

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Prediction Markets
  • Meet professor Justin Wolfers.
  • Become “friend” with me on Google E-Mail so as to share feed items with me within Google Reader.
  • Nigel Eccles’ flawed “vision” about HubDub shows that he hasn’t any.
  • How does InTrade deal with insider trading?
  • Modern Life
  • “The Beacon” is an excellent blog published by The Independent Institute.

Final InTrade v. Zogby Showdown Results

No Gravatar

Superdelegate chicanery notwithstanding, Obama has won his party&#8217-s nomination, so my head-to-head contest between a major pollster (Zogby) and major prediction market (Intrade) will be coming to a close.

Unsurprising to those who know a little bit about the scholarship, economics, and/or track record of prediction markets, the traders of Intrade provided us much better data this election season than the respondents to the Zogby polls.

Standings
Wins Losses Ties Pct Contender Avg Eve Prob
7 3 11 59.5% Intrade 71.3%
3 7 11 40.5% Zogby 40.7%

Schedule
Score Date State Party Intrade Zogby Winner Intrade Pct Zogby Pct
7-3-11 6-May IN Dem Clinton 2-way-tie Clinton 85% 42%
6-3-11 6-May NC Dem Obama Obama Obama 90% 50%
6-3-10 22-Apr PA Dem Clinton Clinton Clinton 82% 47%
6-3-9 4-Mar OH Dem Clinton 2-way-tie Clinton 70% 45%
5-3-9 4-Mar TX Dem Obama 2-way-tie Clinton 57% 44%
5-2-9 5-Feb NJ Rep McCain McCain McCain 96% 52%
5-2-8 5-Feb NJ Dem Clinton 2-way-tie Clinton 67% 43%
4-2-8 5-Feb NY Rep McCain McCain McCain 98% 53%
4-2-7 5-Feb GA Dem Obama Obama Obama 96% 48%
4-2-6 5-Feb MO Dem Obama Obama Obama 63% 47%
4-2-5 5-Feb CA Rep McCain Romney McCain 56% 40%
3-2-5 5-Feb CA Dem Obama Obama Clinton 52% 46%
3-2-4 29-Jan FL Rep McCain 2-way-tie McCain 51% 33%
2-2-4 26-Jan SC Dem Obama Obama Obama 90% 38%
2-2-3 19-Jan SC Rep McCain McCain McCain 56% 29%
2-2-2 19-Jan NV Dem Obama Clinton Clinton 54% 42%
2-1-2 15-Jan MI Rep McCain 2-way tie Romney 54% 27%
2-0-2 8-Jan NH Dem Obama Obama Clinton 91% 39%
2-0-1 8-Jan NH Rep McCain McCain McCain 82% 34%
2-0-0 3-Jan IA Dem Obama 3-way tie Obama 54% 28%
1-0-0 3-Jan IA Rep Huckabee 2-way tie Huckabee 53% 28%

Lord willing, I will have another showdown season, but will most likely choose another pollster. Whereas Intrade listed contracts and probabilities for every state primary, Zogby only provided election eve updates for only 21 of the 87 held to date. Rasmussen stands out as a worthy pollster, but I would be happy with any candidate referrals from my readers as well.

Cross-posted from Caveat Bettor.

Previous blog posts by Caveat Bettor:

  • Land-Ocean year-to-date temperatures 0.35 Celsius over baseline
  • Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts!
  • Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday
  • Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
  • The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
  • Zogby beats Intrade in predicting Nevada caucus winner Clinton.
  • The GOP SC and Dem NV Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby