- Kansas Governor Seen as Top Choice in Health Post. — Gov. Kathleen Sebelius is emerging as President Obama’s top choice for secretary of health and human services.

Now, look at the red line in the HubDub chart below: the prediction markets nailed her since the beginning of February 2009.

Of course, a scientific comparison would have scrutinized more closely than I did all the news articles from the New York Times (and from other mass media). That’s what we are going to do with the “Open Institute Of Prediction Markets“. To this end, I will set up a portable and distributed “Prediction Markets Consortium” in the coming days. Then, I will try to anchor it in an institution of higher education, and, after that, I will try to gather support from think tanks and foundations. Not an easy task, but I know now that I can count on many prediction market people and companies. It should be an industry endeavor —and it should deliver results, in the end (demonstrating the social utility of the prediction markets by documenting velocity, and, from there, following a logical thread which I will talk you about later on).

PS: About velocity… Remember that we are about the prediction markets versus the mass media (The New York Times, The Times of London, NBC News, BBC News, etc.) —as opposed to the vertical media (Politico.com, Nate Silver’s blog, PoliticalBetting.com, etc.). The distinction is very important to keep in mind.

UPDATE: The only stuff I can find about Sebelius for HHS is that February 9 piece from the Associated Press (which didn’t get a mass audience since it was not-republished in the New York Times or other mass media), saying that she was “near the top” for the job. Well, “near the top” is not like saying she was “on top”.

UPDATE #2: The Sebelius story is picking steam in the mass media. See Nate Silver’s take.

ADDENDUM: Andrew Gelman tells me that he thinks that “the Associated Press is a mass medium. It is a cooperative organized by a bunch of newspapers.” I think that the AP news articles do indeed reach a big audience when they are re-published or cited in the mass media. But in the Sebelius case above, it was not the case.

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Previously: The truth about prediction markets

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Who will be the next nominee of the HHS, now that Daschle has withdrawn from consideration?

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No HHS contract on InTrade, BetFair or NewsFutures.