Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Hewlett-Packard

How the prediction market industry lied to the media (and the public, *YOU*) about Hewlett-Packard’s pilot tests regarding enterprise prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 4, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Paul Hewitt on the Hewlett-Packard (HP) prediction markets:
Another tried-and-true method is to repeat a statement over-and-over until it becomes a “fact”. The best example of this, regarding prediction markets, is the claim that they are “proven” by virtue of HP’s remarkably lop-sided, unmistakable, trouncing of internal forecasts by a score of 6 – 2. It [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Prediction Post-Mortem | Also tagged , , , , , ,

The best research papers on prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 11, 2008 — Leave a Comment

As seen by Andreas Graefe…
IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets
Research Papers
Basics
Several studies explain the concept of prediction markets and provide useful summaries of the method, e.g.
- Spann, M. & Skiera, B. (2003). Internet-based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting, Management Science, 49, 1310-1326. [Full text]
- Wolfers, J. & Zitzewitz, E. (2006). Prediction Markets in [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Resources - References | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Short list of the economics labs researching on prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 30, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Labs
(with thanks to Chris Hibbert of Zocalo)
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Iowa Electronic Markets – (IEM) – (Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science – (ICES) – (George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.)
Economic Science Institute – (ESI) – (Chapman University, California, U.S.A.)
HP Labs – (Hewlett-Packard, Palo Alto, California, U.S.A.)
Laboratory for Experimental Economics and [...]

Posted in Economics, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Resources - References | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

INTEL BUSINESS CASE: INTERNAL PREDICTION MARKETS DO WORK.

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 16, 2007 — 1 Comment

UPDATE:
WARNING: Even though the Intel director uses 15 times the term “prediction markets” in this paper, the forecasting tool they have been using is another form of information aggregation mechanism.
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Via the absolutely indispensable but nevertheless extremely modest George Tziralis, this article in the Intel Technology Journal of May 2007:
The Spectrum of Risk Management in a [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Cases, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

HEDGESTREET: Earnings Per Share Prediction Markets + Merger And Acquisition Prediction Markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 3, 2007 — 1 Comment

US-based, CFTC-regulated, real-money prediction exchange HedgeStreet:
Earnings Per Share Event Derivatives
Wal-Mart Stores
Exxon Mobil
3M
Amazon.com
Apple
Boeing
Caterpillar
Citigroup
Ford Motor
Genentech, Inc.
Google
Halliburton
Intel
McDonald’s
Microsoft
Motorola
Pfizer
Yahoo
Bebe
Costco Wholesale
Dell
Electronic Arts (EA)
Hewlett-Packard
NYSE Euronext
Time Warner
UAL
Walt Disney
Merger And Acquisition Event Derivatives
Siruis/Xm
Yahoo/Microsoft
Newscorp /Dow Jones
Hershey / Cadbury
ISe / Deutsche Bourse
ISE / NYSE
Nasdaq / PHLX
Google / Salesforce
Upperdeck / Topps
Quite impressive list.
Previous: EPS Prediction Markets = Earnings Per Share Prediction Markets

Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , ,

Can the Many forecast better than the Few in the pharmaceutical industry?

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 1, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Can the Many forecast better than the Few in the pharmaceutical industry? – (PDF) – by Joseph Miles – 2007-02-XX
Professor Robin Hanson asserts that, overall, prediction markets done well compared with every other traditional forecast and individual expert. [...]

Existing prediction markets in Pharma Prediction markets are beginning to get attention in the pharmaceutical industry.
A couple [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Yahoo! Confab on prediction markets… for ever.

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 5, 2007 — 2 Comments

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Credit: Declan McCullagh/CNET News.com:
Robin Hanson, an economics professor at George Mason University and an early proponent of using prediction markets to judge government policies, stands at the podium. On the left is Eric Zitzewitz, an economics professor at Stanford University’s business school.
At a micro-conference held at Yahoo’s headquarters in Sunnyvale, Calif., representatives from Google, Yahoo, [...]

Posted in People | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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