Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Harvard

They are using prediction markets to forecast what…???…

- “to predict the likelihood of breast cancer drugs succeeding through the three phases of drug clinical trials.”
- to “help doctors and patients gain insights into the safety and efficacy of specific drugs at the early stages of clinical trials beyond information that is publicly available.”
Complete B.S.

Yet another prediction market newbie who should be meeting with Robin Hanson one on one to get a little injection about conditional prediction markets and how they could be useful for BOTH private decision makers AND public policy makers.

Lewis Sheperd (the Chief Technology Officer of Microsoft’s Institute for Advanced Technology in Governments):
Indeed, it appears to me that [prediction markets] are growing not from corporate or government use, but mostly organically from within academia, stock-futures circles and political-junkie communities. I’m reading the interesting variety of writers and prediction-marketeers at Midas Oracle, which brings together [...]

LET’S REVISIT HISTORY: In May 2007, Harvard professor of economics Kenneth Rogoff laughed in Paul Wolfowitz’s face.

BACKGROUND INFO: Kenneth Rogoff is a visiting scholar at the Brookings Institution and professor of economics at Harvard University.
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May 2007’s Blog Post: INSIDER TRADING: World Bank employees speculating on the Paul Wolfowitz event derivatives at InTrade-TradeSports?? -
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For Aprils’s Fool Day 2007, Kenneth Rogoff wrote the following hoax.
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ForeignPolicy.com
MEMORANDUM:
TO: World Bank Staff
FROM: Paul Wolfowitz, President of [...]

Harvard fella says prediction markets are doomed.

He bases his brilliant reasoning on “rumors” and total ignorance of the participation inequality law.
Another academic fella who would be better off researching his topic before blogging on something he does not master.
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Enterprise prediction markets now part of Harvard MBA.

Managing in the Information Age – (Spot the Google mention.) – A course by Andrew McAfee
Via our good friend George Tziralis of AskMarkets

Are the Hollywood Stock Exchange numbers audited by an external organization?

The Harvard Crimson (on Anita Elberse’s work):
Since its founding in 1996 [by Max Keiser and Michael Burns], HSX has had 1.7 million registered traders, according to Costakis. Each day, between 15,000 and 20,000 people use the site, racking up some 50,000 trades, he added.
Rock around the bunker… Rock around, rock around… Rock around the bunker… [...]

EJSS-selected short list of news articles, research papers and books on prediction markets

NewsFutures:

Media Coverage

The CEO Guide To Prediction Markets (Latest case studies + tip sheet + podcast)
by Rachael King, July 7 2006

How to Decide? Create a Market
by Michael Totty, June 19, 2006

The Crowd Knows Best
by Serena Altschul, January 8, 2006

Wisdom of the crowd
by Jim Giles, November 17, 2005

Market Magic
by Alix Nyberg Stuart, November 1, 2005

Place Your Bets
by [...]

Leak false information to the media, sell the event derivative on InTrade-TradeSports?????

Via Bo Cowgill, Foreign Policy (which brought us the fake Wolfo memo last month):
[...] In theory, a quiet, dispersed buy of these very cheap contracts coupled with a well-timed leak could be a quick way to get some cash into the Palestinian Authority’s bare coffers. And Hamas wouldn’t even have to recognize Israel: Just whisper [...]

New York Times’ Maureen Dowd laughs in Paul Wolfowitz’s face.

New York Times’ Maureen Dowd is helping Paul Wolfowitz building his new résumé:
Work Experience
President of World Bank: 2005-2007
Responsibilities: Reining in European lefties, raining tax-free money on Arab girlfriend, and giving anti-corruption efforts a bad name.
Achievements: Paralyzed the international lending apparatus to the point where small countries had to max out their Visa cards to pay [...]

The White House signaled that Paul D. Wolfowitz might resign voluntarily as World Bank president if the bank board dropped its drive to declare him unfit to remain.

New York Times
Max Keiser (ex-HSX): MARKETS SAY WOLFOWITZ IS TOAST!
This neo-con is soon to be ousted, it seems. I won’t cry for him. What a bastard.

Previous: Does Paul Wolfowitz have a future at the World Bank? + FAKE WORLD BANK MEMO: Harvard professor of economics Kenneth Rogoff laughs in Paul Wolfowitz’s face. + INSIDER TRADING: [...]

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