Tag Archives: Hanson

Who is the Steve Jobs of the prediction market industry?

The award goes to… the envelope, please… Nigel Eccles. – John Delaney and Emile Servan-Schreiber are good, but they are too much ignorant of information technology. Adam Siegel and David Perry are too much focused on their internal process. BetFair … Continue reading

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The best research papers on prediction markets

As seen by Andreas Graefe… IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets Research Papers Basics Several studies explain the concept of prediction markets and provide useful summaries of the method, e.g. – Spann, M. & Skiera, B. (2003). Internet-based Virtual Stock Markets … Continue reading

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How political prediction markets save lives

Over the years there has been a lot of talk in this community about how prediction markets could be “socially valuable”. The discussion has often focused on the value of the information and/or predictions that the markets could generate, especially … Continue reading

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Not enough profit opportunities in prediction markets?

Robin “High IQ” Hanson: (Don’t bother to complain such a market might pay terrorists to do it – they could make far far more money from such an act trading in existing financial markets.) Coming from one of the co-inventors … Continue reading

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The InTrade transaction costs eat substantially their traders’ profits.

Overcoming InTrade’s Bias: Jason Ruspini: Haven’t had time to look at these markets closely recently since there’s no lack of more liquid and volatile ones out there, but selling longshots would be my preferred *Intrade* strategy. I mean, Gore was … Continue reading

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James Surowiecki’s The Wisdom Of Crowds… still stands.

James Surowiecki’s 4 comments at Overcoming Bias (in October 2007), responding to accusations that he got it all wrong about Francis Galton: — James Surowiecki’s 1st comment: “Galton did not even bother to calculate a mean, as he saw his … Continue reading

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At Yahoo! Research, Yiling Chen is David Pennock’s right arm on prediction markets.

Yiling Chen — Penn State: Yiling Chen joined Yahoo! Research in 2006. Her research interests are on the border of economics and computer science, including prediction markets, auction theory, and sponsored search. [Yiling] Chen’s current research focuses on better understanding … Continue reading

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MIT’s wiki on prediction markets

MIT’s wiki on prediction markets Prediction markets (and more generally, information markets) are exchanges in which people buy and sell their predictions about the future. In a standard set up, those who bet correctly profit, and those who do not, … Continue reading

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Prediction markets is a meta forecasting tool.

Bet on It! – (page two – page three + a crappy listing of exchanges) – by Steven Cherry [...] Chris F. Masse, a [] consultant in Sophia Antipolis, France, who specializes in prediction markets, says that by 2010, “10 … Continue reading

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Suggestions for the NewsFutures betting exchange

— #1. Allow traders to create and expire their own event derivatives (“DIY prediction markets“, a la Inkling Markets). Establish a reputation system for those event derivative managers. #2. Propose MSR, in addition to CDA. #3. If they are sound, … Continue reading

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